MN Transplant Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm surprised there isn't a second radar on Puerto Rico (NW side?), given the terrain. There is, or used to be, a network of small x-band radars on the west side run by UPR-Mayaguez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: There is, or used to be, a network of small x-band radars on the west side run by UPR-Mayaguez. Ah. I was surprised there isn't a Terminal radar for San Juan airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 USVI may take the N/NE eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ah. I was surprised there isn't a Terminal radar for San Juan airport. But there is? TSJU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ah. I was surprised there isn't a Terminal radar for San Juan airport. There is a TDWR for San Juan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I remember this webcam from Irma.. http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: But there is? TSJU 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: There is a TDWR for San Juan Weird that it's not showing up on my GR 3 (v 2.x) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Flight level wind of 176 mph on recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The Euro takes the eye pretty much right over the NE corner of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 There is, or used to be, a network of small x-band radars on the west side run by UPR-Mayaguez. Yeah. They got rid of them a few years ago. I forecast for SW PR and we have our own site radar but we used to use the radars out of MayaguezSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherchaser Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 That site also allows you to hear radio in PR and other islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 920 mb w/6 kt wind on the dropsonde. Recon seems to support upping winds to at least 145 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 920mb Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 153kts (~ 176.1mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 17:54:00Z Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 6kts (From the WSW at 7mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Weatherchaser said: That site also allows you to hear radio in PR and islands Pretty scary as there has been no communication out of Dominica for a solid 12-13 hrs....this has St Maarten type of destruction written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Looking forward to recon video from the eye later. Should be a spectacular sunny stadium effect like Irma at her peak, only smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Weird that it's not showing up on my GR 3 (v 2.x) I just fired mine up and it is there (v2.6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA HAS STRENGTHENED... Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has strengthened above the intensity in the 2 PM AST advisory, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 165 mph (265 km/h). SUMMARY OF 215PM AST...1815 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 63.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...265 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 So I have a question/observation.... Is Jose a big driving force for irma? reason I am asking is over the past 3 ECMWF runs including the 12z run that is running now, The model has Jose losing intensity quicker ... If this trend continues will the models for maria start shifting more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA HAS STRENGTHENED... Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has strengthened above the intensity in the 2 PM AST advisory, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 165 mph (265 km/h). SUMMARY OF 215PM AST...1815 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 63.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...265 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES I'm surprised they issued a special advisory for a 5MPH increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised they issued a special advisory for a 5MPH increase. It was an update statement not a special advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: It was an update statement not a special advisory. Oh okay thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 NHC will start issuing one hour position updates at the top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jfreebird said: So I have a question/observation.... Is Jose a big driving force for irma? reason I am asking is over the past 3 ECMWF runs including the 12z run that is running now, The model has Jose losing intensity quicker ... If this trend continues will the models for maria start shifting more west? As long as Jose is strong enough to keep the break in the ridge, Maria will follow that break in the ridge and go out to sea. If that break closes up, Maria has a path to the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised they issued a special advisory for a 5MPH increase. Puerto Rico is the FEMA staging camp for all aid to the islands. We are using these extra updates from NHC for contingency planning efforts and it's been a huge help to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hold onto your hats, the 12z ECMWF takes what's left of Jose and buries it into the NJ coast rather than kicking it NE. That allows the ridge to rebuild to the North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 See no reason why Maria wouldn't follow Jose WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Imminent landfall, probably into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Imminent landfall, probably into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Imminent landfall, probably into NJ This is what I was concerned about. ECMWF filling Jose's 500mb vort enough to bring Maria back west. Fortunately, based on this solution, it still had Maria far enough east bringing it over signficantly cooler SSTs thanks to Jose before bring it nearto the Mid-Atlantic region. Maria would be a similar storm to Jose by that point. What we have to watch for with modeling evolution the next few days is if the ECMWF begins to trend towards filling Jose's resulting mid-level weakness faster. That could allow more ridging bringing Maria further west in track over much warmer and untouched Gulf Stream SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: As long as Jose is strong enough to keep the break in the ridge, Maria will follow that break in the ridge and go out to sea. If that break closes up, Maria has a path to the lower 48. But where does he create a break in the ridge? See 12z Euro. She's going to make landfall or come very close, this run. The 12z Ukie only goes out to 144 hr, but you can forsee a similar outcome to the 12z euro out 192 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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