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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways.

No one said imminent.....but within 12-18 hrs is my concern.

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need an explanation of what an ERC is?

Look, we are all pretty experienced here, so I think that while baseless assertions are never good, there are some estimations that can draw on a an tacit knowledgebase Not every expressed opinion requires an equation.

No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks. 

 

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So current heading based on NHC, recon, etc. is 300 degrees. Short term motion on radar honestly looks south of this. It's going to take a movement of 315 from the last recon fix to miss PR to the NE and something 310+ to clip the NE part of the country. Going right through the center of San Juan is 308.

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6 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening.  Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned.  The drama yesterday was uneccessary.

 

Likely this cyclone is still intensifying.  The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. 

I agree wholeheartedly. Thank you for your thoughts. 

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Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said:

No, not at all. And I didn't mean to say that I didn't understand where you were coming from. It's just nice to see a train of thought, especially for the folks that just read and do not post. They see many different opinions being thrown around, and not many explain why. That's all that I was trying to say. Appreciate your thoughts, thanks. 

 

Just alot of info being cast about on here.Sorry...will try to be clearer.

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9 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening.  Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned.  The drama yesterday was uneccessary.

 

Likely this cyclone is still intensifying.  The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. 

Agree.  I for one appreciate the Raw T updates (they save me from having to go look them up myself!)

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways.

If you look at the recon passes there is a clear secondary wind max that is consistently present but the orientation of that outer band looks more like a spiral feeding in to the dominant inner eyewall at this time. This can all change quickly and i hope it does evolve into an ERC but i agree with you that there isn't clear evidence that the process has clearly started.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.  Seems way too far out for it to be an ERC 

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1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

If you look at the recon passes there is a clear secondary wind max that is consistently present but the orientation of that outer band looks more like a spiral feeding in to the dominant inner eyewall at this time. This can all change quickly and i hope it does evolve into an ERC but i agree with you that there isn't clear evidence that the process has clearly started.

I agree that it hasn't started.

The question is how far off is it.....PR needs to pray it isn't far.

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SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 64.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES
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Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will
be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start
of the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little
bit.  The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and
after that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level
winds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening.  The new
intensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.
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3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

did not both harvey and irma have some erc where they did not weaken during the process i remember irma had one that was very quick.. and did not weaken the storm...banking on a erc  in this short period of time..to save puerto rico is like winning the lottery...

No one should be doing that.

Preparations for a catastrophic blow should be complete.

I think that an ERC, if it has time, will take a toll on Maira because its so small.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is Puerto Rico succeptible to mudslides?  Pretty mountainous but they get hit with pretty heavy rains on a regular basis IIRC.  Wind damage will be pretty bad for towns in the higher elevations.

Hurricane Georges did huge damage as a Cat 3 in 1989.  I fear this will be far worse

Yes: http://www.nytimes.com/1985/10/09/world/hundreds-feared-killed-by-puerto-rico-mud-slide.html

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We're up to a 7.0 on Raw T, as well as Adjusted, and even a 6.9 on CI#. It's pretty clear that this is an intensifying hurricane, still, and that there is little to nothing standing in it's way except for an extremely quick and well timed ERC. 

All thoughts seem to point to the fact that that outer eyewall would take many hours to constrict. I do not think there will be any relief for Puerto Rico, and they are going to have a very strong Cat 5 at landfall. 

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