weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: That's part of forecasting, identifying which is right (or more right anyway). For instance, is there a specific reason why mixing would be lower than today on Wednesday? If anything with the approach of the cold front, stronger winds may increase mixing from today. That's exactly what I need to further explore. All the factors which influence and determine mixing. One thing I want to start doing is using the technique I use for several cities and then make a spreadsheet of MOS forecast highs and what I get and then do a verification. Did GFS handle things better than the NAM for this past weekend and the heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...the NAM generates some strange mixing issues with sun during the warm season sometimes. When it looks warm and the MET is way under the MAV I toss the MET further than my long island iced teas, off the side of the highway in Sherbrooke, in the late 90s. Ekster just felt a disturbance in the force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I was going to sign up for that as an alum this season and forgot. But ocean influence can certainly mitigate that mixing. The MAV/MET for PVD was not as stark as some of the more inland sites though. yeah that's a good point. winds were forecasted to be more southerly which would draw in some marine influence for them. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah...the NAM generates some strange mixing issues with sun during the warm season sometimes. When it looks warm and the MET is way under the MAV I toss the MET further than my long island iced teas, off the side of the highway in Sherbrooke, in the late 90s. 2 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I've noticed NAM MOS haven't been reliable in WxChallenge since second half of the previous season started. They're still at 81 so you might get lucky (I had 83). this makes sense. I now remember the NAM really struggling down the stretch towards the end of the challenge in the spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 89F CON 1F from latest heat wave on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 It's a shame this can't end with a giant severe wx outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: this makes sense. I now remember the NAM really struggling down the stretch towards the end of the challenge in the spring Even before last season, I never like using NAM much in WxChallenge unless it's doing really well over USL and GFS MOS after couple days. PVD just increased to 82.4 F, but I think they could be done getting warmer with the sea breeze about to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's a shame this can't end with a giant severe wx outbreak I was one step away from asking SPC for this marginal, but they've gotten upset at us this year for doing that so I refrained. There is a little signal there for some severe tomorrow afternoon/evening. Forcing is definitely N though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Even before last season, I never like using NAM much in WxChallenge unless it's doing really well over USL and GFS MOS after couple days. PVD just increased to 82.4 F, but I think they could be done getting warmer with the sea breeze about to kick in. ughhh...damn. messed up the low too. I went 65. Was going to do 66 but didn't take into account clouds coming so fast. Hopefully they'll dip before 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I was one step away from asking SPC for this marginal, but they've gotten upset at us this year for doing that so I refrained. There is a little signal there for some severe tomorrow afternoon/evening. Forcing is definitely N though. The other day I thought we could see some storms tomorrow (nothing severe) but maybe a few strong ones. why can't we get a labor day '98??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ughhh...damn. messed up the low too. I went 65. Was going to do 66 but didn't take into account clouds coming so fast. Hopefully they'll dip before 6z lol I had 65 too, but I'm okay with it. Good news is the consensus was 64 so we should have a nice scoring boost for going over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The other day I thought we could see some storms tomorrow (nothing severe) but maybe a few strong ones. why can't we get a labor day '98??? Nah, I'm waiting for one of these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Down here in Boston right now. It feels so comfortable down here compared to that awful heat back up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Unofficial 3rd 90F here in the Noosk according a wundergound PWS nearby. Not sure if BTV will hit it as there were some clouds but those have cleared for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 59 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I had 65 too, but I'm okay with it. Good news is the consensus was 64 so we should have a nice scoring boost for going over. looking forward to any precip days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 46 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nah, I'm waiting for one of these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1821_New_England_tornado_outbreak oh man...I actually never heard of that event. That's sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Yesterday's high of 88 at CAR is their warmest for so late in the season - have to go back to the 10th to match/exceed it (89 in 2002.) Sunday's 85 was also latest-warmest, for one day only (and the 23rd has a top of 86, set in 1965.) They've reached at least 87 today. GFS keeps us dry or nearly so out thru day 14 - would make 30+ days with less than 0.1" precip. Maybe we can imitate 1947 - normal to AN precip thru midsummer, then dusty dry and fiery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: oh man...I actually never heard of that event. That's sick I've checked the archived obs for BOS that day and they were near 80 at 8 PM and the upper 70s at 8 AM (they used to report at 8 AM, 2 PM, 8 PM). So you could probably infer near 90 highs and 70s dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 #faketemps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: #faketemps I see you use Weatherduck...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Third consecutive 90F+ officially reached at BTV. This has never occurred in 130 years of records this late in the season previously. It is an official heatwave here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: Third consecutive 90F+ officially reached at BTV. This has never occurred in 130 years of records this late in the season previously. It is an official heatwave here. Pretty sure CON pulled it off too...lots of 32C obs the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. Agree. Only 84F here and tolerable with low 60s at night. I'm most afraid of tomorrow night ahead of the front...could be tough to sleep with some clouds, dews, and light mixing. 36hrs from relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 KFIT had 89s yesterday for highs after 90 on Sunday No pool for me today, but maybe a final dip in tomorrow after work. My classroom is just gross. Those who want kids to go to school year round can suck it if they won't put AC in buildings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: KFIT had 89s yesterday for highs after 90 on Sunday No pool for me today, but maybe a final dip in tomorrow after work. My classroom is just gross. Those who want kids to go to school year round can suck it if they won't put AC in buildings FIT snuck a 90F in yesterday between hours, but it's looking like 89F today barring some strange big spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Agree. Only 84F here and tolerable with low 60s at night. I'm most afraid of tomorrow night ahead of the front...could be tough to sleep with some clouds, dews, and light mixing. 36hrs from relief. 84? Get the ice cube off the sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: Agree. Only 84F here and tolerable with low 60s at night. I'm most afraid of tomorrow night ahead of the front...could be tough to sleep with some clouds, dews, and light mixing. 36hrs from relief. We snuck down into the upper 50s last night and I thought it was fine with a ceiling fan. I'm in Montreal now and my car said 93F in traffic on the highway. Looks like another day of upper 80s at MVL and MPV. Still failed to hit 90F this warm season at both locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. Not often ORH is a lot hotter than BOS in late-September because of the SSTs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 26, 2017 Share Posted September 26, 2017 Nice! Yeah that's gotta be a hot one today. I'm going up to Montreal for a flight to Munich (Montreal is a great option for us here at 1.5hrs away and several hundred dollars cheaper thanks to the exchange rate) and there's no relief from the heat by any Cu clouds today. Just hazy hot and humid in all directions. Just the one lone cloud trying to fight the cap over Mansfield's ridgeline, haha. Also, just think, you waited till late September to visit and got the hottest weather of the entire year, lol. How come Stowe doesn't have more trails between spruce peak and the gondi side?Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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