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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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I have a friend who was riding out the storm right by Tutu Bay in the USVI. The facebook live feed cut out about 30 minutes before the core of the wall made its closest pass. I havent heard anything since then, winds looked to be gusting around 100 MPH right before it cut out...

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I have a friend who was riding out the storm right by Tutu Bay in the USVI. The facebook live feed cut out about 30 minutes before the core of the wall made its closest pass. I havent heard anything since then, winds looked to be gusting around 100 MPH right before it cut out...

I also noticed Brett Adair's been seemingly offline for about an hour (San Juan). 

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Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 062001
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
400 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...400 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF IRMA BATTERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

An unofficial observing site on Culebra recently reported sustained
winds of 88 mph (142 km/h) and a gust to 111 mph (179 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 65.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

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1 minute ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Please don't ever go back to that message board again!

They won't merge or combine forces.  And there's no such thing as a category 8.

Welcome aboard!

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1 minute ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Don't ever go back to that message board....

  • Like 34

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Just now, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

No. Absolutely not.  What happens when two cyclones interact is known as the Fujiwhara effect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

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4 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

It is physically impossible for two Hurricanes to combine into one big hurricane, if they were close enough the Fujiwhara effect would occur, which won't happen in this case.

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12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free :) click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy! 

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

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Aircraft Position: 18.72°N 65.22°W
Bearing: 297° at 257 kt
Altitude: 2371 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 15 kt at 178°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 912.5 mb

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2 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free :) click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy! 

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

Jack - link broken

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Whatever was slightly holding Irma back this AM - minor land interaction, touch of a shear, whatever - its gone right now.  Aye mama this is as good looking as western atlantic  / subtropical storms get.

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9 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Here is some advice. Stay here, read, and avoid that other website as it's complete garbage. 

Ouch

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Whatever was slightly holding Irma back this AM - minor land interaction, touch of a shear, whatever - its gone right now.  Aye mama this is as good looking as western atlantic  / subtropical storms get.

Northeast PR has some 3500 mountains.  I kind of thought that by now that perhaps they would be disrupting the flow abit.  I guess not....

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5 minutes ago, samdman95 said:

No. Absolutely not.  What happens when two cyclones interact is known as the Fujiwhara effect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

Thanks for the non sarcastic answer.  That's helpful.

I'm not a weather guy but I stumbled upon this site during Harvey and found a lot of helpful information.   Same with Irma.  I don't understand much of the jargon and abbreviations and I'm not going to bog down the board asking what everything means.  

Sorry if that was a dumb (and seemingly obviously so) question.   But it made me curious and this seemed like the best place to get a quick and correct answer.   

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So a category 5, running from the leewards all the way to Florida is going to build up quite a surge & wave heights if it even comes close to maintaining it's strength. Do we have a good handle of how that plays out in Miami in terms of surge + waves? Is it like a 30-40ft Tsunami if it comes in on a worst case trajectory?   

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29 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Interesting by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW.

thought the same thing when I put this line as a reference 

irmascope6.gif

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Richard Branson hasn't tweeted in almost 8 hours-his last tweet came about 3-4 hours before his tiny island went into the eye.  He also tweeted a photo with what looks like a bunch of teens/twenty-somethings he was staying with.  

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Northeast PR has some 3500 mountains.  I kind of thought that by now that perhaps they would be disrupting the flow abit.  I guess not....

I think as long as the eyewall is clear of the island it wont have that much of an effect, though we might see some temporary weakening of the eyewall once the storm passes if it sucks in some air off the downslope.

I wonder if the land interaction is actually helping to disrupt the usual pace of ERCs.

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