TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GEFS mean and Euro op are very close on track forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 take the middle between Euro and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, beanskip said: No doubt. Would be tragic. Clear west trend (as anybody could see at 48 hours). Not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henrysfork Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, monsoonman1 said: Should note that there would probably be a decent tornado threat across the Carolinas on Monday if Irma indeed tracks through GA/SC. Should we expect some rain, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 We went from a track that seemed pretty legit on the 3rd day to back to the drawing board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At this point west trends help mitigate damage - far lower population densities on FL Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 euro shows a near due west motion starting over the next 24-48 a lot moreso than the gfs. wont have to wait long to see which one has a better handle. for now irma is slightly ne of the nhc track. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Right up the spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, beanskip said: No doubt. Would be tragic. Clear west trend (as anybody could see at 48 hours). Not a trend. It has been bouncing 50-75 miles between runs. Regardless....all the latest runs across the models are putting Miami in a very bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 I guess if there is a silver lining this run it's that Irma tracks towards the Panhandle, remaining over land, and the impact to most of the Carolinas is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Apacoliptic euro run. Another thing to remember from Katrina is the huge dome of water that's already moving with the core. So even if we do see this weaken down to cat 4. (I think that happens before another burst back to 5 before landfall) there is a cat 5 surge with this thing aimed at MIA. That and wave run up which caused most of the damage during sandy will mitigate the lack of shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Brutal run for Florida -- nowhere to run, nowhere to hide on both coasts, except to try to get into Georgia or around the bend west. Will be an evacuation disaster if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: take the middle between and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area. Certainly the worst fears are possible. I don't envy emergency management officials, the nhc, nws, or anyone who has to make a life or death decision to leave. It's crazy that the models are overall not that far apart but such small differences are so HUGE when it comes to impact and where. And It's scary to think about but we all know there are going to be a lot of people who stay behind and don't evac. The euro is scary indeed but even the more east models show no room for error in se florida if you are hoping the eastern eyewall doesn't come ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Still some time to go, but given the model clustering, it's becoming increasingly difficult to envision a way out for Florida. And with this 12z Euro run, it's at the point where even a slight eastward adjustment would do nothing good for the eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chubbiegull Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: Right up the spine and this scenario would stall out in SC NC?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Not a trend. It has been bouncing 50-75 miles between runs. Regardless....all the latest runs across the models are putting Miami in a very bad spot Disagree -- GFS went west. HWRF -- west. GEFS -- west. Euro -- West. Want to take "never makes Florida landfall" and I take the other side for a cold beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Chubbiegull said: and this scenario would stall out in SC NC?? This scenario spares SC/NC from a direct hurricane. SC would get rains and some gusty winds but not a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Chubbiegull said: and this scenario would stall out in SC NC?? Heads into GA/Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Do you have this for the next frame or 2? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: At this point west trends help mitigate damage - far lower population densities on FL Gulf Coast. No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: take the middle between Euro and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area. Also worrisome is the short term impacts. Can't help but think of the few days after Andrew when there was basically little law enforcement in certain areas, lack of water, etc. and a degree of lawlessness and a breakdown in civil order. I would NOT want to be in some devastated area and have to deal with THAT, let alone the long term implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The fact that we have the ECMWF and the GFS [and for that matter, the cmc] 72 hour forecasts projecting the eye of this likely cat4 (or worse) monster passing within 100 miles of downtown Miami is tbh completely terrifying. I haven't been on this board long, but I've been tracking TCs as a hobby since I was a kid (spurred by Andrew), and the nightmare scenario of cat4-5 aiming at south florida within 72 hours is now real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Do you have this for the next frame or 2? Thanks. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 48 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: CNN is clearly not reporting that themselves. Did you miss the part where the mayor said it? Just because the mayor said it, doesn't mean CNN et al have to put it on the lower third of their feed. This is why no one trusts the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: euro shows a near due west motion starting over the next 24-48 a lot moreso than the gfs. wont have to wait long to see which one has a better handle. for now irma is slightly ne of the nhc track. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html UKMET has had this for days and it wouldn't be the first time the UK led the way for the Euro (and ultimately the storm) on something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 If that happens I wonder what kind of weakening we will see before this thing gets to Orlando or the Space Coast. Charlie even did a number on the Orlando area as a compact storm. It's inland has quite a bit more trees and some older houses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be. This is wrong. The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades. It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall. Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west. Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro landfall this run at Cape Sable, FL. Shifted a little further west than recent runs where the EPS mean had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherboy80 said: If that happens I wonder what kind of weakening we will see before this thing gets to Orlando or the Space Coast. Charlie even did a number on the Orlando area as a compact storm. It's inland has quite a bit more trees and some older houses Unfortunately the Hurricane is huge at this point and is starting to take off as it hits the keys. The N/NE side has the highest winds. If there was another worst case scenario, besides riding up the coast, this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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