wxeyeNH Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I am surprised how small in size Irma is right now. In such a moist environment I would have suspected the overall cloud structure to be much bigger. Wasn't it forecasted to grow in size, area wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: That trough/ULL is make or break on the forecast. I still set my sights up the EC Imo either way she dances with S Florida but what happens beyond that pass is highly uncertain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac_not_in_dc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 How often do you see the three triangles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So is there any explanation why the winds are so strong compared to the size of eye/cloud top temps/T number/central pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Thinking we should see 185mph and ~924mb on the next advisory... Nearing record strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jacindc said: So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? I don't think anyone is "tossing" very much of anything. This 12z run of the GFS is just slightly east. They are just model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 tops getting colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, jacindc said: So, everyone is just tossing the 0Z Euro that went up the *west* coast of Fla.? Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NW eyewall also had SMFR measured around 150kt. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 926mb on the splashdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jac_not_in_dc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. On top of that, with the angle it is approaching at, a 100-200 mile deviation can mean the diffeeence between an outer banks landfall and Panama City. I feel for emergency management folks in Florida. How the heck do you decide who to evacuate when a 100 mile adjustment can mean the difference between a Miami/Tampa landfall? What do you do with folks in the keys? Where do you send them? Just a total nightmare scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Morris said: 163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00 163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00 163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00 163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05 How is this to be read? I'm guessing its Time of measurement, lat, long, but what are the other measurements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jacindc said: Agreed. I just brought it up because no one in all of the 12z "it's going east" discussions has mentioned the Euro. Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Folks, stop looking at the CMC. It's not trustworthy for TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: Oddly there was an extrapolated pressure of 922.6mb with 35kt winds... and one that was 923.6mb with 15kt winds. Has to be erroneous, that or the core is doing some funky things. Disagree - margin of error around extrap is entirely consistent with observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Great site to book mark. GOES 16 visible meso sector of Irma: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Little taste for those that didn't click. Much greater resolution available at the link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 The Pressure-Wind relationship that people asked may be an issue with the latitude and restoring forces. IE storms further south may have a higher pressure and stronger winds to correspond, vs a storm higher in latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said: The outflow has been very impressive all day. Continues to improve and encompass much of the circulation. Unless this fades it only looks to strengthen, which is impressive give the current 180 mph winds. It'll probably get a bump next advisory. What a beauty! It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Little taste for those that didn't click. Much greater resolution available at the link above. How are you able to make a .gif off that site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Amazingly terrifying..... This could if it hits the Miami area and or the Everglades change the landscape for generations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 The 12z HWRF has Irma down to 920 at 18z, so fairly accurate. Hovers Irma in the 910's/920's over the next 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z HWRF bit faster and stronger vs. 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nobody should be dismissing anything at this point, except maybe landfall in Texas or Bermuda. Really can't stress enough to our guests and newer members that a wide range of options is still on the table. Models will move around with each run. Anything outside the 3 day NHC cone is going to be very speculative. The error on the 5 day cone is so large that it could be south of Cuba or missing the FL E. Coast. We can take a hint from the lack of confidence from the best in the biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: It's approaching it's hypothesized MPI for the current SST, although the water continues to warm as it moves west, but this should provide at least a nubulous upper bound for intensity. It's pretty darn close to MPI per charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: How are you able to make a .gif off that site? Screen cap with OBS Studio.. Edit clip in your favorite video editor. Giphy (website) to convert to .gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Folks, stop looking at the CMC. It's not trustworthy for TCs. On that basis neither is the gfs. Theyve had similar error re: irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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