downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: It certainly has time to change especially considering even a slight adjustment in that track could make a huge difference with things. Yeah the good ole east coast and its funky angles, 50-100 miles one way or the other on the north track off Florida really is the difference between Hilton Head and Wilmington....though this setup would tend to lean more with the NW track so further south, that doesnt even take into account the timing of the turn in the Bahamas and how that changes things as well....they will end up having to evacuate the entire SE coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think people might be discounting the idea that this landfalls in Cuba and gets significantly weakened before any potential US impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Not buying a track into Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah the good ole east coast and its funky angles, 50-100 miles one way or the other on the north track off Florida really is the difference between Hilton Head and Wilmington....though this setup would tend to lean more with the NW track so further south, that doesnt even take into account the timing of the turn in the Bahamas and how that changes things as well....they will end up having to evacuate the entire SE coast again. Curious, has this ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I think people might be discounting the idea that this landfalls in Cuba and gets significantly weakened before any potential US impacts. And I think understandably some people are hopecasting it will. It certainly is a significant difference potentially in strength. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Curious, has this ever happened? Floyd.....http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/19/weekinreview/ideas-trends-the-perfect-traffic-jam-hurricane-floyd-lessons-in-the-evacuation.html edit that first link sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, nwburbschaser said: I think people might be discounting the idea that this landfalls in Cuba and gets significantly weakened before any potential US impacts. The GFS and Euro don't show it hitting Cuba but it will be close for sure. One small swing south and it would be a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like we're getting an upgrade to Cat 4 at the 5 PM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Lots of people in SFL (I'm in Stuart) monitoring this thread. Our thanks to all of you for keeping us up-to-the-minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, nwburbschaser said: I think people might be discounting the idea that this landfalls in Cuba and gets significantly weakened before any potential US impacts. The GFS and Euro both keep it off the coast today. Not sure why or how people are "wishcasting"? Yea there may be some dry air intrusion but it would be pretty intact heading toward FL with bath water and super high moisture laden content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 hours ago, OUGrad05 said: Sure if you don't count New Jersey as east coast, many consider it New England...but still.... Come again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 HMON position at the end of the run is very close to the Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: The GFS and Euro both keep it off the coast today. Not sure why or how people are "wishcasting"? Yea there may be some dry air intrusion but it would be pretty intact heading toward FL with bath water and super high moisture laden content. Except dry air intrusion can last for longer than expected if it penetrates the inner core. You can't just discount that. Of course, if Irma has a well established CDO by the time that happens, it would be less prone to the effects of dry air entrainment, but you can't just ignore mitigating factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not buying a track into Indiana. Not buying you posting in the next 5 days. Step up your game people. One liners like this with no reasoning will be deleted or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 IF the GFS were to verify, you would see apocalyptic scenes out of MIA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon just found 139 mph flight level wind and 129 mph surface wind in the northeast quadrant. It appears the outer eyewall is taking over and strengthening. That's terrible news for the northern islands. Even though the center is still forecast to go just North of them, by as little as 20 miles, they will be very close if not hit by the southern eyewall. One unfortunate wobble as it passes could mean the difference between disaster and catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: IF the GFS were to verify, you would see apocalyptic scenes out of MIA... That intensity is not going to verify. Size may be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Except dry air intrusion can last for longer than expected if it penetrates the inner core. You can't just discount that. Of course, if Irma has a well established CDO by the time that happens, it would be less prone to the effects of dry air entrainment, but you can't just ignore mitigating factors. Oh no definitely agree on this, pending how close it gets to land interaction. But I think it was actually the other individual that mentioned wishcasting and that is just plain wrong. This is a major deal regardless if it gets interrupted in the eyewall. Verbatim per Euro and GFS it SHOULD stay intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: That intensity is not going to verify. Size may be a different story. Agreed, I would lean towards the Euro's intensity if anything. But the size is going to create catastrophic surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Oh no definitely agree on this, pending how close it gets to land interaction. But I think it was actually the other individual that mentioned wishcasting and that is just plain wrong. This is a major deal regardless if it gets interrupted in the eyewall. Verbatim per Euro and GFS it SHOULD stay intact. Global models do not have the resolution to capture processes on this kind of scale, thus they will underestimate their effects essentially all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Recon confirms LEK has his solid Cat 4. Right on schedule. Maybe even a tad early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: The GFS and Euro don't show it hitting Cuba but it will be close for sure. One small swing south and it would be a direct hit. I'm a bit worried last night's runs were just overcorrections and it won't end up really coming that close to Cuba in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I'm a bit worried last night's runs were just overcorrections and it won't end up really coming that close to Cuba in the end A lot of extra data will be assimilated into tonight's 00Z runs, so we're probably about to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I'm a bit worried last night's runs were just overcorrections and it won't end up really coming that close to Cuba in the end I really don't know all that much about tropics, but how does the HWRF handle things compared to GFS/Euro? It was south a while before the other models corrected that way and it hasn't changed so I've been putting a bit more stock in its solution. It goes right across Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Global models do not have the resolution to capture processes on this kind of scale, thus they will underestimate their effects essentially all of the time. I am well aware. I was simply stating the fact that literally verbatim if the core is 30 or so miles off the coast it SHOULD be uninterrupted. The individual who mentioned wishcasting obviously misspoke and is downplaying the overall threat. Back to weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, andyhb said: That intensity is not going to verify. Size may be a different story. 880s might not (probably wont) verify, but when you get to 920 or so, what difference does it make???? Both major models show an intense, large hurricane impacting south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 880s might not (probably wont) verify, but when you get to 920 or so, what difference does it make???? Both major models show an intense, large hurricane impacting south Florida. Right, Andrew was 922 at it's peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, csnavywx said: A lot of extra data will be assimilated into tonight's 00Z runs, so we're probably about to see. Yeah G-IV is out there now flying around Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The 12z EPS mean matches the OP almost identically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z EPS large cluster following OP pretty closely through hr144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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