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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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18Z GFS crushes eastern half of NC with 2-5" of rain across the entire area...Nam went much dryer and the GFS goes nuts I am sure the truth lies somewhere in between.

GFS.thumb.png.53771aef2b4b7e30367ebef7053e8183.png

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3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

18Z GFS crushes eastern half of NC with 2-5" of rain across the entire area...Nam went much dryer and the GFS goes nuts I am sure the truth lies somewhere in between.

GFS.thumb.png.53771aef2b4b7e30367ebef7053e8183.png

Sandwiched in between the two storms it was a coolish summer day with clouds in Atlanta.  Beautiful for August. 

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25 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Sandwiched in between the two storms it was a coolish summer day with clouds in Atlanta.  Beautiful for August. 

Yeah its 72 here with drizzle/mist on a 14 mph NE wind gusting into the low 20's......long range doesn't have any 90's in it for most of the SE, though 90s as late as early Oct are fairly common.

 

RDU AFD

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 232 PM Monday... ...A flash flood watch and wind advisory remain in effect south and east of the Triangle from 8 pm this evening through 8 pm Tuesday... 12Z model guidance suggests that potential tropical cyclone 10 will track just inland of the NC coast late tonight and Tuesday. With an upper level trough approaching from the west, expect the heaviest precipitation (2-5" or 3-6") to fall left-of-track along/west of Hwy 17 between midnight tonight and ~noon on Tuesday, with a tight gradient in precipitation amounts on the NW periphery of the cyclone (invof the Hwy 1 corridor). If PTC10 tracks further west than currently anticipated, significant rainfall (and flash flooding) would be possible invof the Triangle. With ~1020 mb high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, the MSLP gradient will be tightest on the W/NW periphery of PTC10, and a period of strong northerly winds/ gusts will be possible in concert with heavy rain and rapid pressure falls south/east of the Triangle tonight/early Tue, and perhaps again Tue afternoon as winds back to the NNW/NW in response to pressure rises in the wake of PTC10. Ultimately, precipitation amounts and winds in central NC will highly depend on the precise timing/track/intensity of PTC10, and adjustments to the flash flood watch and wind advisory area may be required later this aft/eve into tonight. Expect below normal highs ranging from near 70F in the N/NW Piedmont to the mid 70s in the far SE Coastal Plain. -Vincent

-- End Changed Discussion --


 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Glad they didn't waste a name on this dud! Not a ton of precip either. Models over did it a bit

Just a tad....though the Nam did start backing off last night...this is my point forecast at the moment.....so maybe we still see some wind on the gradient but rainfall is going to be meh....which is fine by most here in eastern NC I am sure, we dont really need it. 

"Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southeast 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible."

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LOL-= NHC

Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind
shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this
disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a
coin flip.
  • Like 1

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Schools were delayed for a few hours this morning in anticipation of heavy rain that never materialized. I picked up a grand total of 1.33". Winds are just above calm with occasional drizzle.

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16 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Just a tad....though the Nam did start backing off last night...this is my point forecast at the moment.....so maybe we still see some wind on the gradient but rainfall is going to be meh....which is fine by most here in eastern NC I am sure, we dont really need it. 

"Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southeast 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible."

Yeah, the NAM at 7-9" across central NC was just absolutely ridiculous. And a day before the event!

The rule remains: don't bet on heavy rain when you are on the west side of a tropical system going north or northeast. And especially not if it's just developing and struggling.

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Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center.  ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt.  Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days.  However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM.  At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11.  A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle.  Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 16.4N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 16.7N  31.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 17.3N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.9N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.2N  37.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 18.7N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 17.7N  46.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 17.0N  51.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro has it close to the southern Bahamas at day 9 moving west/northwest.

Buzzsaw incoming.

Yeah Euro sticking to its guns and that's a bad look...I also get nervous when the Euro stays consistent....its first hinted at this storm Sat and it hasn't moved much with its track idea either....

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10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Don't like the looks of this at all. This has a SE hit written all over it.

[IMG]

Hello Miami, "tag, you're it".

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Comparing 12z EPS from today v/s yesterday...still not budging and if anything more members look ominous.

Courtesy of Ryan Maue twitter

 

DIgNGq4VYAQqnE_.jpg

DIbESWIVYAALbHr.jpg

 

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15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Comparing 12z EPS from today v/s yesterday...still not budging and if anything more members look ominous.

Courtesy of Ryan Maue twitter

 

DIgNGq4VYAQqnE_.jpg

DIbESWIVYAALbHr.jpg

 

Definitely not a good look.

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21 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Definitely not a good look.

Well would imagine more than half of the members recurve...but a good chunk probably hit or into the gulf.  

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Don't like the looks of this at all. This has a SE hit written all over it.

[IMG]

You're right. If it ends up there it isn't a good look.  Big question is, will it. A long voyage ahead for this one.

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