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March 13/14th PSU Storm


stormtracker

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Any verification discrepancies between the two paras?  One would expect the 3km higher resolution to be better regardless, right?

       depends.    it's going to put more mesoscale features in the precip field, which won't always be correct.    But I overall trust its synoptics more than the 12 km versions of the NAM.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous.  It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance.

It goes nuts on the western flank so we're stuck in subsidence between the southern energy and northern energy. Total outlier right now and may be a case of what I talked about earlier. Get something wrong early and then magnify the error through time. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm sorry, and I never do this, but that solution put out by the regular NAM seems to be ridiculous.  It is so out of sync with every other piece of guidance.

This is what I'm hoping and I'm not sure why I'm letting it spook me..if this was outside of 36, I'd lol at it and not even discuss it...but supposedly we're in it's "wheelhouse" :rolleyes:  High risk added a little comfort is saying the para seems to be better

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