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March 13/14th PSU Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would be a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. 

Weird.   I mean, I guess if we're gonna sleet down here, better do it up.   2" of sleet would be pretty epic

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly, the rgem is pretty cold at the surface. Upper 20's mostly 95 and west. Would a few inches of snow then a driving sandstorm, and flip back to snow. 

And you'll never convince me that a model can predict an 850 line down to 25 miles accurately.  DC is very close even during the bad times.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...this is deteriorating right before our very eyes! What a difference 24 hours makes...

We can't say for sure it's deteriorating.  I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless.   But for how long is the question.  

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Just now, stormtracker said:

We can't say for sure it's deteriorating.  I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless.   But for how long is the question.  

The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The issues with the rgem are purely track driven. It could be right. But if it's an offshore track then the entire scenario changes. 

Seems weird for surface to still be below freezing with those 850s, track and wind direction tho....Whatevs, Whicha got GFS

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't say for sure it's deteriorating.  I haven't given up hope...all I'm saying is this just puts us back down to earth..we got a real good chance of mixing, regardless.   But for how long is the question.  

It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. 

If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a big storm. It's quite possible the meso's are too amplified. We've seen that before. Since they are still initializing before the southern storm even gets going, it's possible they are overdoing it. Of course they could be right to. Walking the line sucks but it's what we do around here. It's built into our climo. 

If the globals hold with an offshore track then we have a lot to discuss with no way to know for sure one way or the other. 

If the GFS holds, then we'll be just as blind to what's gonna happen as anybody else who doesn't follow the models like we do, lol Insane

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