Mar 10 Clipper

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dendrite smoking Cirrus? Can't wait for the Kuchera maps Dendrite?

Not once have I expected a flake from the clipper. I'll probably get another 0.1" squall from the arctic fropa.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

Not once have I expected a flake from the clipper. I'll probably get another 0.1" squall from the arctic fropa.

You actually might get some from the IVT too.

[JC-CT]

The hires RGEM is pretty far north

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The hires RGEM is pretty far north

EPS robust across CT EMA

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS robust across CT EMA

I think 1-3 is a decent range

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS robust across CT EMA

This is statewide 2-4" with a narrow zone of 3-6"

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not once have I expected a flake from the clipper. I'll probably get another 0.1" squall from the arctic fropa.

Same

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looks pretty flat through 30. Worse than 12z even (and that was a southern outlier). Wouldn't be surprised if this run is almost a clean whiff save maybe the south coast. NAM has literally been all over the map the past 24 hours...pretty ugly yesterday at 18z, widespread advisory (or even low end warning in spots) at 00z...a little less wild, but still decent at 06z...suppressed at 12z, and now probably almost a whiff at 18z.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah whiffy.  Congrats BID.

[OSUmetstud]

Ill enjoy my 4" of snow to rain followed by hurricane force gusts.  

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks pretty flat through 30. Worse than 12z even (and that was a southern outlier). Wouldn't be surprised if this run is almost a clean whiff save maybe the south coast. NAM has literally been all over the map the past 24 hours...pretty ugly yesterday at 18z, widespread advisory (or even low end warning in spots) at 00z...a little less wild, but still decent at 06z...suppressed at 12z, and now probably almost a whiff at 18z.

As good as a winter as it's had.. the last 3-4 weeks it's struggled. You wonder if it struggles during transition season 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thankfully nobody pays it any attention, unless it is the snowiest solution obv.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As good as a winter as it's had.. the last 3-4 weeks it's struggled. You wonder if it struggles during transition season 

Maybe it was just lucky throughout and its run its course. 

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM vs the world . 

[JC-CT]

why are you posting 6z

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

why are you posting 6z

is 12z out?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

is 12z out?

Yes, it's similar.

Also, why are you posting the JMA lol

While you're at it, check out hour 240 on the 12z run

[JC-CT]

rgem is having none of what the nam is smoking

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looks like it gets some inflow going...pretty impressive run.

[codfishsnowman]

maybe the nam had the right idea yesterday but got mixed up today, still could be the first model to forecast heavier snow further north

 

that is another way to think about it 

[weathafella]

GFS looks ok considering the source..

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS looks ok considering the source..

Slight bump north...so not bad.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

rgem haha, nice bend back into CT behinds. 

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM loves our SWCT posters for sure

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm telling you ..don't be shocked if they extend the current WSW up to I-90 tomorrow morning

[sankaty]

What's with the TSSN on the KMMK text extraction from the 18Z NAM?

 Station ID: KMMK Lat:   41.50 Long:  -72.82                                                        
 NAM Model Run: 18Z  8MAR 2017 Cloud base and tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 03/08 18Z   56     32     276       9    0.00  0.00    538    549   -1.7 -19.6 1013   2       044FEW098    0.0   15.1
   3 03/08 21Z   56     27     223      10    0.00  0.00    538    548   -0.1 -21.1 1011   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
   6 03/09 00Z   49     30     205       9    0.00  0.00    537    546    1.2 -22.5 1011   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
   9 03/09 03Z   48     29     230      10    0.00  0.00    535    544    0.5 -23.2 1011   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  12 03/09 06Z   45     26     244      10    0.00  0.00    534    543   -1.5 -22.2 1011   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  15 03/09 09Z   43     22     253      10    0.00  0.00    532    542   -3.5 -22.6 1012   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  18 03/09 12Z   41     19     264      11    0.00  0.00    530    541   -5.8 -23.9 1013   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  21 03/09 15Z   43     16     281      15    0.00  0.00    529    541   -8.0 -27.9 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  24 03/09 18Z   45     18     279      13    0.00  0.00    530    542   -6.9 -27.9 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  27 03/09 21Z   47     17     280      11    0.00  0.00    531    542   -5.4 -27.7 1013   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
  30 03/10 00Z   44     16     291       6    0.00  0.00    531    543   -4.5 -27.1 1015   2       111FEW145    0.0   15.1
  33 03/10 03Z   41     17     311       6    0.00  0.00    531    543   -3.9 -27.7 1015  59       133BKN187    0.0   15.1
  36 03/10 06Z   36     25     290       4    0.00  0.00    531    543   -6.0 -26.5 1014  99 -SN   076OVC211    0.0   11.4
  39 03/10 09Z   32     30      48       1    0.09  0.00    529    540   -7.4 -26.6 1012 100       080OVC200    0.2    9.2
  42 03/10 12Z   32     29     264       2    0.02  0.00    527    537  -10.0 -26.5 1012 100       066OVC283    0.0    7.4
  45 03/10 15Z   34     26     283       3    0.01  0.00    524    533  -10.5 -26.6 1011 100       028OVC237    0.0   12.1
  48 03/10 18Z   38     28     243       5    0.02  0.00    519    525   -9.6 -31.4 1008 100       022OVC097    0.0   14.1
  51 03/10 21Z   37     23     300       9    0.04  0.03    514    520   -9.5 -35.9 1006  94 TSSN  029BKN114    0.0   11.9
  54 03/11 00Z   28      7     329      11    0.01  0.01    509    517  -13.1 -37.8 1010  10       110FEW380    0.0   15.1
  57 03/11 03Z   23      5     317      13    0.00  0.00    507    518  -16.3 -35.6 1013   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  60 03/11 06Z   20      0     304      13    0.00  0.00    507    518  -18.7 -35.5 1014   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
  63 03/11 09Z   18      2     309      12    0.00  0.00    506    518  -19.3 -35.3 1015   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
  66 03/11 12Z   17      1     316      11    0.00  0.00    506    521  -20.9 -33.4 1019   0          CLR       0.0   15.1
  69 03/11 15Z   19      0     310      11    0.00  0.00    509    525  -21.3 -26.7 1020   5       074FEW088    0.0   15.1
  72 03/11 18Z   22      0     298      10    0.00  0.00    513    528  -19.8 -24.7 1019  79       067BKN060    0.0   15.1
  75 03/11 21Z   22      0     304      11    0.00  0.00    515    530  -18.9 -26.9 1019  87       080BKN100    0.0   15.0
  78 03/12 00Z   17     -1     314      10    0.00  0.00    515    532  -20.5 -27.4 1022  19       170FEW189    0.0   15.1

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That just made my eyes bleed.

[SouthCoastMA]

WSWatch for 4-7" here. NWS going balls to the wall

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

WSWatch for 4-7" here. NWS going balls to the wall

That's an odd most likely snowfall map given that the watch is mostly east of where they have the heaviest snowfall.

[jbenedet]

Rgem continues to tick warmer at the surface.