512high Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: First wave is weak and fast; therefore will do little to disrupt the barocolinic zone behind it. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Sunday storm looks like a whiff. Is there anything snowwise to look forward to in next 7-10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Wackos, I don't even think the clipper is "gone" yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro backed off the brutal cold a bit..Probably it's first step in eventually bringing Sunday storm north NWS BOX has actually dropped my Saturday high from 24F to 17F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GEFSGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro backed off the brutal cold a bit..Probably it's first step in eventually bringing Sunday storm north LOL no it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: GEFSGW? Yea the GEFS is way north, all members are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea the GEFS is way north, all members are A few bomb out after that and go KU on ENE lol. It's still a ways out to me, especially in spring. I wouldn't even be talking about Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: A few bomb out after that and go KU on ENE lol. It's still a ways out to me, especially in spring. I wouldn't even be talking about Sunday. Look at the 84 hr panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Look at the 84 hr panel I did, at first was wondering if the mean was being skewed by a couple members but nope, almost all are north of the OP. So is the NAM fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Worth another 24 hours of watching at least. Also, full disclaimer, I am in the southern part of this subforum so that obviously affects my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Worth another 24 hours of watching at least. Bottom line is a huge airmass clash coming up the next 15-20 days, storms and rumors of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I did, at first was wondering if the mean was being skewed by a couple members but nope, almost all are north of the OP. So is the NAM fwiw. Yea. GEFS say "stay interested". I think the mesos will be more instructive than usual bc this may come to bear some resemblance to a meso low riding along an Arctic boundary. Interested in the RGEM when it comes into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Rain for ORH? I think mixing is still possible--even up there. I still believe the best surface pressure falls are further north across SNE, and out ahead of the pressing ULL/Arctic boundary. I originally envisioned a SLP track across CT and SE MA. It's still my base case, but low confidence due to lack of guidancesupport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 37 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Wackos, I don't even think the clipper is "gone" yet LOL..right. I guess we write off a potential Sunday event on Tuesday now?? Cannot say anything for certain either way. Sure, very possible it gets squashed(some were thinking that was impossible yesterday). But passing on a system that is 5-6 days away in a volatile set up like this is just foolish imo. If this winter has showed us anything this season, it's that things can change super quick...both for the good and bad. At least we have something to look at. And I agree with Will, it sure would be a shame to miss out on all these shots...but that can happen; it's happened before and it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nice look on gefs for Fri, the state is not out of it. For Sun, we get better pic tonight/tom but I dont like the lack of pv interaction and flatness out west, only so far north it can come back at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Truth be told/clarification ...desperately needed: Friday's system is still present in the guidance. It's just not presented as significant here in the proverbial collective-imby of the sub-forum bastion of users. That's a rub you just have to be adult and capable of being fair about. If Friday comes to pass and there is nothing at all, like anywhere ...? That's a different story. Just because the weather goes out of its way not to enable certain neurosis (heh) doesn't make for failure. But, if folks can't see the logic there, they are not intellectually capable of even being responsible so it's futile to attempt to penetrate that kind if perspective of matters with any semblance of reason. Believe it or not,... the huge lower Manitoba blizzard that is about to seriously hammer southern Canada with 90 mph land based wind gusts over 30" of snow... (hyperbole) that is "the signal" that we were originally tracking some 12 days back. It just didn't rub the right way closing in. I get it that there is a spatial argument out there for correctly getting into the geographical regions...and I don't disagree; however, based upon the objective standard of deterministic weather forecasting these days, that criticism really doesn't do anything to diminish the value of first detecting a more favorable pattern for bigger events. I don't think any winter enthusiast that is sane would argue, or attempt to do so, that now is not better than it was when it was 70 f'ckum five degrees last week or whenever that was - so... give credit where it is due. And, that sort of brings me to what Will sort of intimated a while ago, ' ...It would be a waste if nothing materializes over the next 10 days' - not sure what his exact words were, but that's the gist. That's about all we can do... we parlay. That's how this works. Forecast is always a crucible of probabilities...adding in and subtracting out relative absurdities and cooking up the most confident solution at that point in time - then subject to change. It's a game. Question is, do the vagaries of the wind now actually score the coveted back-yard goal for having the apparent players lined up ... the answer is, no - because to the weather, as long as the goal is scored anywhere. The question is, are you happening to be standing in the way when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Ah ha, so as long as someone gets it....mother nature is satisfied. Well good for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 About time for the NAM clipper runs to get interesting...12z is the first one. We'll probably have a full blown snowstorm on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I think she's gonna come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 SREFs have a KU yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think she's gonna come GEFS were pretty far north at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ah ha, so as long as someone gets it....mother nature is satisfied. Well good for her. greedy b**ch... heh. Yeah sorry about that - it's really in deference to the onion breath left over by the trolling the other day that impugned people that want/effort to put out thoughts on matters. childish and probably not really even worth of replying... of course - Problem is, I suspect the moderating standard is dimmed these days compared to back in the Wright Weather and Eastern Days when the dino's roamed. We're not in Kansas anymore. Back then, it was public and charitable - and thusly, moderation had stricter policies of decorum that ...really was designed for morons with limited self-control and a lust/wanton disregard for mutual respect and so forth. In other words, they just couldn't wait to get to be azzholes. Some folks are really like that, too, and hide their schit streaks in most walks. But ...the advent of the Internet and the creation of the anonymity pen of the keyboard and look out! It's their dream come true.. But for those that engage in writing for this as hobby and what not ... there's a palpable difference in what is tolerated/allowed. I don't believe it is a coincidence that banner ads started popping up around the same time. Once this become intended as a profit engine, the interest of attracting mouse-clicks tends to weigh over the interests filtering out ********s. I still think Mods need to bounce some individuals. This site isn't losing much if they toss 10 cretins in 100 tactful, intelligent, useful users. But who knows... It's actually reasonably inexpensive to create one's own forum now. There's plenty of Forum software/aps out there now - you just need server band-width. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's a cutoff staller by 12z wed, mash the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Re the NAM .. well...all the models.. .if we want to get back to classical discussion points, that's a helluva wind max going along or just underneath LI. It could be that the models lost (sort of) sight of that because the thickness gradient was packed S of that axis .. The wind max may not have been strong enough to ignite counter/inflow up the elevated frontal slope of that S displaced surface front. But...get in a little closer in time, and the models sometimes correct all that stuff (though, some of them saw it 5 days back but dropped it...just sayn') But what are we talking about here? ...getting snow in the air ... ? okay. If the wind max verifies that way, I wouldn't be surprised if it correct toward more, but it's minor no matter what save for some realy critter mechanics that are a crap shoot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 And now the parallel NAM is far enough north that it has the heaviest snow in Northern CT...my memory is not great but I feel like the Parallel sniffed out a northern shift around 80 hrs for one of the storms in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: greedy b**ch... heh. Yeah sorry about that - it's really in deference to the onion breath left over by the trolling the other day that impugned people that want/effort to put out thoughts on matters. childish and probably not really even worth of replying... of course - Problem is, I suspect the moderating standard is dimmed these days compared to back in the Wright Weather and Eastern Days when the dino's roamed. We're not in Kansas anymore. Back then, it was public and charitable - and thusly, moderation had stricter policies of decorum that ...really was designed for morons with limited self-control and a lust/wanton disregard for mutual respect and so forth. In other words, they just couldn't wait to get to be azzholes. Some folks are really like that, too, and hide their schit streaks in most walks. But ...the advent of the Internet and the creation of the anonymity pen of the keyboard and look out! It's their dream come true.. But for those that engage in writing for this as hobby and what not ... there's a palpable difference in what is tolerated/allowed. I don't believe it is a coincidence that banner ads started popping up around the same time. Once this become intended as a profit engine, the interest of attracting mouse-clicks tends to weigh over the interests filtering out ********s. I still think Mods need to bounce some individuals. This site isn't losing much if they toss 10 cretins in 100 tactful, intelligent, useful users. But who knows... It's actually reasonably inexpensive to create one's only forum now. There's plenty of Forum software/aps out there now - you just need server band-width. Violently agree. Was just kidding before btw. There is a line between poking, having fun vs trolling. Wasting free time punching a virtual keyboard attacking those who do not get paid to offer their knowledge on such is useless energy. I can disagree with your posts and joke about your steaming cup of tea lol but it is not done to deamonize you. One major decrease in societal communication thesdays (if I can steal a page from you) is the utterly lack of empathy for different opinions. Disagreeing is actually healthy, not a detrament. It is how we go about it that defines us. Yet, we lost that. "Either you agree and see it like me or you're different, not worth my time." Oops, back to the program, lets see of gfs can come up a bit with the clipper. Need to take this volitale pattern one threat at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 GFS already a good jump north with the low at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Nice north trend with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The problem with the GFS is the lack of inflow. It's basically a ribbon of strong frontogenesis. On top of that, you have Bruce Willis NW winds at 850. So only a narrow area get the goods as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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