40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Truth be told/clarification ...desperately needed: Friday's system is still present in the guidance. It's just not presented as significant here in the proverbial collective-imby of the sub-forum bastion of users. That's a rub you just have to be adult and capable of being fair about. If Friday comes to pass and there is nothing at all, like anywhere ...? That's a different story. Just because the weather goes out of its way not to enable certain neurosis (heh) doesn't make for failure. But, if folks can't see the logic there, they are not intellectually capable of even being responsible so it's futile to attempt to penetrate that kind if perspective of matters with any semblance of reason. Believe it or not,... the huge lower Manitoba blizzard that is about to seriously hammer southern Canada with 90 mph land based wind gusts over 30" of snow... (hyperbole) that is "the signal" that we were originally tracking some 12 days back. It just didn't rub the right way closing in. I get it that there is a spatial argument out there for correctly getting into the geographical regions...and I don't disagree; however, based upon the objective standard of deterministic weather forecasting these days, that criticism really doesn't do anything to diminish the value of first detecting a more favorable pattern for bigger events. I don't think any winter enthusiast that is sane would argue, or attempt to do so, that now is not better than it was when it was 70 f'ckum five degrees last week or whenever that was - so... give credit where it is due. And, that sort of brings me to what Will sort of intimated a while ago, ' ...It would be a waste if nothing materializes over the next 10 days' - not sure what his exact words were, but that's the gist. That's about all we can do... we parlay. That's how this works. Forecast is always a crucible of probabilities...adding in and subtracting out relative absurdities and cooking up the most confident solution at that point in time - then subject to change. It's a game. Question is, do the vagaries of the wind now actually score the coveted back-yard goal for having the apparent players lined up ... the answer is, no - because to the weather, as long as the goal is scored anywhere. The question is, are you happening to be standing in the way when it does. Oh shut up. ...its a New England suforum. Just shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, Matthew Gross said: Two things to like today. 1) Friday's Clipper is looking juicier. 2) I actually think the Canadian's solution for next week isn't that outlandish with the way the Ukie and Euro are also crushing the energy with the second wave. If that gets trapped down south over the weekend and then waits for the third wave which comes out of the Plains early next week, there's a decent chance they hook up somewhere along the east coast. Welcome, good first post. I never buy the cmc but other guidance has the energy lurking with obv different solutions so the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wednesday night and Thursday watch for squalls and Windex and some hefty upslope in the Greens too, clipper has come north, have to watch that, Sunday is a southern Belle but all eyes on the Ides for a phaser Delayed but not denied? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 No use for cold and dry this late in the year. Nobody wants a second pond ice season. LolActually I'll take it. Me and some buddies played a little shinny on the lake behind my house. Ice was surprisingly good all things considered. If it snows, that's great but if it doesn't then make the most out of the conditions at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Snowy next 10 days for SNE . Nice way to finish out the season So are the braless women still on for St.Pattys weekend or will they be wearing snow suits now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: So are the braless women still on for St.Pattys weekend or will they be wearing snow suits now? We snow Friday - Wed next week. Chilly Thursday and then a quick 2 day torch that weekend leaves bras flyin and boobs shakin and Erin foot loose and fancy free for ST. Patty weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I'm not sold on this St Patty torch at all. Sure you can have a DSD day and be 55-60...but anything warmer is not a given right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I'm a snowpack guy and we are getting into the time of year where that's not going to be a reality, Still have full coverage here but getting thin. Still 22-23" at my place and more in the mountains. The problem may be with the little seasonal brooks that are usually not bridged. Must be a pain getting a slush shower with each dip in the trail. Even if suppression rules the month in my area, I'd be happy if the SNJ grandkids get some serious snow to play in. It's been a one-storm winter for them so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 Heh, anything beyond 60 F is pushing the SD envelope/frequency so the models are likely to do one of two things for day 10: have it be 80, or not see it... The odds of the models nailing a rarefied event like a pushed SD outlier at D 10 with very much accuracy strikes me as guess work. I suppose we can make 'educated guesses' that extremeness is plausible - sure...okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Still 22-23" at my place and more in the mountains. The problem may be with the little seasonal brooks that are usually not bridged. Must be a pain getting a slush shower with each dip in the trail. Even if suppression rules the month in my area, I'd be happy if the SNJ grandkids get some serious snow to play in. It's been a one-storm winter for them so far. Yeah, Brooks are starting to open up, Water bars and mud holes in the middle of trails as well as some logging road crossings that are mud so that becomes issues this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Brooks are starting to open up, Water bars and mud holes in the middle of trails as well as some logging road crossings that are mud so that becomes issues this time of year. Really ... it was just 0 to 20 F for 3 straight days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Really ... it was just 0 to 20 F for 3 straight days Just a band aid, We would need more sustained cold then just these transient shots especially in March, Those will be open again, I know a lot joke about the higher sun angle, But the higher ground areas take a beating this time of year and is bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro with a sizeable bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Welcome, good first post. I never buy the cmc but other guidance has the energy lurking with obv different solutions so the potential is there. Thanks. I think just about anything is possible right now beyond 100 hours because it's already apparent that the models are struggling with Friday's Clipper (You can already tell the NAM thinks it's going to be much juicier than the Globals do and we've seen the Globals whiff on this a couple of times already this winter). This is key because the evolution of that Clipper is going to influence the flow for all the waves behind it, and like any math problem, if you get the first step wrong, there's no way you're getting the rest of the question right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Yep-Euro further north vs GFS or CMC. Could be a fun Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 That was a very big shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 WSW go up tomorrow afternoon for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro also keeps it snowing with the hang back ivt ala NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Dust off the goggles. 6z gefs ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: WSW go up tomorrow afternoon for SNE What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just need to sharpen that up a little more and it could be a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: What? For Thurs nite/ Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just a band aid, We would need more sustained cold then just these transient shots especially in March, Those will be open again, I know a lot joke about the higher sun angle, But the higher ground areas take a beating this time of year and is bare. yeah I suppose it's not really arguable... I've mentioned in the past that as early as right around the 10th of February down here we get that effectiveness of the sun going already. (Kevin has an obsession with this for some reason...) But cars parked in the open on sunny days start to oven inside right around that key sort of sun-angle achievement. Well...the same must be true for mid grade elevations with snow pack that are south facing, too. Even at 32 F, a sunny day will send rivulets cascading.. To really maintain a snow pack you need it deep and dim... Blue dawns and dusks... or, get new snow at a sufficient reclamation rate - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Sub-500 thicknesses this weekend will be a little easier to tolerate if we have snow OTG. The clipper's vortmax actually takes a pretty ideal track for SNE, it's just the trough itself is still a bit rounded so we're not getting the good inflow to the colder side. If we sharpen the shortwave a bit more, then we could achieve that and have a nice stripe of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For Thurs nite/ Fri I'm thinking advisory is more likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 don't look a gift horse in the mouth ... ha ha. i'm like anything, you know - 1-3" ..okay... no problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2017 Author Share Posted March 7, 2017 i like the monster it has next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Watches? Euro's only showing about .1 to .2 QPF N to S for the state... It was a good bump north but we need a lot more than that before we start talking about warning snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro north but its still pretty meh, like Will said need to sharpen some, verbatim its a Long island SCT 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Watches? Euro's only showing about .1 to .2 QPF N to S for the state... It was a good bump north but we need a lot more than that before we start talking about warning snows.. between WSW and 70s St Paddys day Kev is off the deep end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.