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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

Its a different pattern with that block we have not seen this winter, just sayin, don't discount it.

Agree, not discounting it myself but I'm not buying the trends when this first started way north and has gone south a handful of runs in a row. It seems guidance doesnt initially pick up on the high then it does, but goes overboard. gfs can be very manic. Id like to see how the euro ticks this thing next 2 days. Also, yea, Wednesday 3pm sounds about the right time to get better feel for this. 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree, not discounting it myself but I'm not buying the trends when this first started way north and has gone south a handful of runs in a row. It seems guidance doesnt initially pick up on the high then it does, but goes overboard. gfs can be very manic. Id like to see how the euro ticks this thing next 2 days. Also, yea, Wednesday 3pm sounds about the right time to get better feel for this. 

Manic? lol this is fu ckin epic, wtf

C6QD_g_WAAE5BWc.jpg

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45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But isn't the block elongated and not West based? I thought that also favored non - suppression . Just seems there's a lot going against a D.C. Event while Philly north sees cirrus.

Philly does just fine on the GFS.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

supression depression, but I'm not sold it ends up that far south. 

1 - it does not snow in Richmond in March

2 - it does not snow more than a foot in Rochmond in winter. 

Maybe not in a warming climate, but two of RIC's top 10 snowfalls came in March, most recently in 1980.  (The other was the 1962 gale that held most of the NJ coast's high tide records prior to Sandy.)

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54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

I remember that 7 day run up here a few weeks back,  Prior to that period, The Euro was spitting out 40"+ amounts about 7 days out and many laughed only to have it verify.................lol

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Euro wayyyy south with everything through day 8.  More so than 00z.

Epic mid-Atlantic run for this time of year.

That's a pretty drastic run to run change at H5 on the Euro which tells me the models are struggling with the upcoming pattern so i would not place much stock in any scenario at this point outside of 3-4 days out.

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