Allsnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Maybe the MJO going through 5&6 it looks like The amplitude of the ridge out west is weaker allowing the PAC flow. It return super bowl Sunday is weak and progressive. Then a trough digs into the west allowing for the cutter. If the sw energy ends up being stronger we could see a improvement for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: I think that is what I was trying to say in a sense. The low can pass through ROC or farther west in the lakes and either way the result is rain. For snow to be onshore in New England there is a much narrower window of tracks a storm can take. Obviously if it goes to Bermuda you would be smoking cirrus in most cases down there. That used to be a weenie term that JI used. Models always agree on a cutter, but never a snowstorm. I just don't see how you can use that in an analogy because it's apples to oranges. But whatever...I get the frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Next week still could be a mixed bag inland and then beyond that is not terrible at all. Sometimes it's just bad timing and bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Just take a deep breath and get ready to fire up the lawn thread. Or drought thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That used to be a weenie term that JI used. Models always agree on a cutter, but never a snowstorm. I just don't see how you can use that in an analogy because it's apples to oranges. But whatever...I get the frustration. Yeah we can argue all day but in the end the result is the same. This sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next week still could be a mixed bag inland and then beyond that is not terrible at all. Sometimes it's just bad timing and bad luck. I've seen more posts referencing 60's and severe weather and cutter next week than anything remotely related to winter. My guess is that massive warmth gets cut off at the pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've seen more posts referencing 60's and severe weather and cutter next week than anything remotely related to winter. My guess is that massive warmth gets cut off at the pass. congrats on overcast 45/35 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've seen more posts referencing 60's and severe weather and cutter next week than anything remotely related to winter. My guess is that massive warmth gets cut off at the pass. The cutter could happen...we've said for a while that they are a threat....but it could also end up flatter and be a CAD event. The pattern after that isn't that bad...it's not all that cold, but there's ridging out west so we'll probably have some chances. Esp at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The cutter could happen...we've said for a while that they are a threat....but it could also end up flatter and be a CAD event. The pattern after that isn't that bad...it's not all that cold, but there's ridging out west so we'll probably have some chances. Esp at our latitude. Yeah I don't think it's an end to winter..and you've said all along cutters are possible. If we've learned anything from this winter..it's that modeled stem wound cutters have not panned out all winter. We've seen these modeled screamers 5 or 6 times and each time they wind up being CAD, weak events with rain at the end or something. Just continues the theme of non wound up storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is one of the worst winters that I can recall, so far.....just the quintessentially optimal blend of cold interludes, cutters and trivial events, with some NNE/se MA centric times interspersed. I'd take last year, or 2012 in a heart beat. Ew-w-w-www!! One 24-hour span in late December made this winter far better than those, at least in my 'hood. Snowpack is important here for both workers and recreationists, and there's already more snow depth days thru Jan 30 than for those entire seasons. I'm surprised your snow blower hasn't tried to eat you due to neglect. I've run mine 4 times this season (only once this month ) whereas it only was needed twice all last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I don't think it's an end to winter..and you've said all along cutters are possible. If we've learned anything from this winter..it's that modeled stem wound cutters have not panned out all winter. We've seen these modeled screamers 5 or 6 times and each time they wind up being CAD, weak events with rain at the end or something. Just continues the theme of non wound up storms this year. Post SB sorm, look at the 12z GGEM and GFS. Both are pretty MEH. After that both have the Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ridging has never really locked in over the west coast providing us with a good cold source out of Canada. Along with the persistent SE ridge and your flirting with warmer systems. Unless he literally means, "globally" ... I thought he was asking if something intrinsic in the make-up of the Earth's atmosphere was causing this; which admittedly, that sort of introspection would be exceedingly rare from that source so.. yeah - J/k Kevin. Seriously, I think there is an issue with global warming playing a part to be blunt. Which, that statement does not put forth in any way or intent, whatsoever, a comment about whether any of that is attributed to human activity. Zero. Warming planet cannot be disputed ...ignored? perhaps, not disputed. But, to service the answer to the broader question, I am not so sure the abundantly fast nature to the flow that has predominated the characteristic of the atmosphere this winter can or should be entirely disconnected from having roots in the warming atmosphere. It's not just something I've noticed this year, either. It's just that it has been more obvious this year. I have considered lay-over from last years super Nino as partially culpable, included. I've been trying to stay away from that specific thinking process in my posts about the high(ish) heights in the deep south. Mainly for fearing knee jerk vitriol that would ensue ... Again, (also said this a week or two ago) we keep posting that it is "the southeast ridge" ; what I am seeing is more than a southeast ridge. Heights from the south of Japan clear to the Americans and east to western Africa are higher than normal by a modest amount; still a key amount that as the seasonal heights normally pressed S with the cooling of the northern latitudes, that resulting gradient was been "too much". The consequence of more than the normal number of those geopotential lines is increasing(ed) wind velocities. That physically does a few things that are not good ... Having 35 days of -PNA between Thanks G and early January certainly didn't help, and that also is a positive correlation to the southeast ridge. But during +PNA times, I am not seeing much evidence that the 582 line even moves S ...like at all, as the flow tips NW over Manitoba in the means. Increased velocities everywhere has transitive effects, too... Like the standard models for wave placement eventually gets effected by that... It's an issue with a few moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've seen more posts referencing 60's and severe weather and cutter next week than anything remotely related to winter. My guess is that massive warmth gets cut off at the pass. Not to get anyone's hopes up ... buuut, I seem to recall a few storms already this year that were supposed to wind up into Minnesota blizzards but ended up pancaked/smeared more east as the time intervals neared. Plus, it's 6-8 days away! ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is one of the worst winters that I can recall, so far.....just the quintessentially optimal blend of cold interludes, cutters and trivial events, with some NNE/se MA centric times interspersed. I'd take last year, or 2012 in a heart beat. My 4.3" snow agrees, as does my new car I bought in 2015 that I have yet driven on a snow covered road(Did not drive during or the day after the blizzard). Chances are this car will never see snow as I am considering selling it lol. 2012 I had an all time October 8" tree crusher for a memory. This winter is beyond the pale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: My 4.3" snow agrees, as does my new car I bought in 2015 that I have yet driven on a snow covered road(Did not drive during or the day after the blizzard). Chances are this car will never see snow as I am considering selling it lol. 2012 I had an all time October 8" tree crusher for a memory. This winter is beyond the pale. Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Unless he literally means, "globally" ... I thought he was asking if something endemic to the Earth's atmosphere was causing this; which admittedly, that sort of introspection would be exceedingly rare from that source so.. yeah - J/k Kevin. Seriously, I think there is an issue with global warming playing a part to be blunt. Which, that statement does not put forth in any way or intent, whatsoever, a comment about whether any of that is attributed to human activity. Zero. Warming planet cannot be disputed ...ignored? perhaps, not disputed. But, to service the answer to the broader question, I am not so sure the abundantly fast nature to the flow that has predominated the characteristic of the atmosphere this winter can or should be entirely disconnected from having roots in the warming atmosphere. It's not just something I've noticed this year, either. It's just that it has been more obvious this year. I have considered lay-over from last years super Nino as partially culpable, included. I've been trying to stay away from that specific thinking process in my posts about the high(ish) heights in the deep south. Mainly for fearing knee jerk vitriol that would ensue ... Again, (also said this a week or two ago) we keep posting that it is "the southeast ridge" ; what I am seeing is more than a southeast ridge. Heights from the south of Japan clear to the Americans and east to western Africa are higher than normal by a modest amount; still a key amount that as the seasonal heights normally pressed S with the cooling of the northern latitudes, that resulting gradient was been "too much". The consequence of more than the normal number of those geopotential lines is increasing(ed) wind velocities. That physically does a few things that are not good ... Having 35 days of -PNA between Thanks G and early January certainly didn't help, and that also is a positive correlation to the southeast ridge. But during +PNA times, I am not seeing much evidence that the 582 line even moves S ...like at all, as the flow tips NW over Manitoba in the means. Increased velocities everywhere has transitive effects, too... Like the standard models for wave placement eventually gets effected by that... It's an issue with a few moving parts. The negative PNA seems to be driving the bus the most to me. The lower heights out west are just a complete hindrance to lowering heights in the southeast. It doesn't help that we've had a positive AO/NAO with the height field over Greenland and the Arctic as that can act as an offset when they are negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next week still could be a mixed bag inland and then beyond that is not terrible at all. Sometimes it's just bad timing and bad luck. Always used to hate that expression growing up by the mets in Albany because many times the "mix" in the mixed bag would mean a big ole' bag of rain where I lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The negative PNA seems to be driving the bus the most to me. The lower heights out west are just a complete hindrance to lowering heights in the southeast. It doesn't help that we've had a positive AO/NAO with the height field over Greenland and the Arctic as that can act as an offset when they are negative. I don't argue any of that, Will - it's conceptually clad. I'm adding to it, that regardless of the -PNA or +PNA (which we did just transpire almost three solid weeks of that latter mode), ...the whole medium is situated over the top of a band of higher than normal heights that exists along and S of the 35 parallel, everywhere; one that is more obviously observable in the dailies at times, at others... is more represented in the means. I completely concur that the -PNA is problematic. ... I kind of think about it as being additionally challenged even when that particular atmospheric mode is opposing. But... it's just my observation. If I were a grad student, I'd cobble together a truck load of obs, send it through the equations of motions, and put up a paper or two about it. I'm not...so it is conjecture on a weather board. That said, it bears intuitive reasoning at least ... the observation is real. The velocities have been high - most importantly, regardless of atmospheric modes known to correlate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 You know ...that handling of the Alaskan sector is abysmal in all guidance types. The other thing that f'ed up the 5th/6th deal is the models have muted the southern stream injection from of the Pacific down to almost nothing. Much of that previous look was based-upon the models bringing more coherence through the SW and through a southern domain; that had recessed some of the plaguing heights... thus allowing it not to be sheared apart. It's amazing how different everything is... gone. The GGEM actually tried feebly to bring back more s-stream/ 5th/6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Nice 965mb low in the UP on the Day 8 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice 965mb low in the UP on the Day 8 Euro. Stem winder. Push it far enough W to dry slot us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I forgot which cutter it was this winter, but there was a Euro run or 2 that showed that same setup with 60's and dews in New Eng and it ended up being a weak secondary south of LI that gave snow to ice to rain..and some places NW zones stayed below freezing entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Stem winder. Push it far enough W to dry slot us. Cut it off and send a triple point low south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I forgot which cutter it was this winter, but there was a Euro run or 2 that showed that same setup with 60's and dews here and it ended up being a weak secondary south of LI that gave snow to ice to rain..and some places NW zones stayed below freezing entire event. It's happened a few times this winter. Anyways, 8 days out so it's pretty meaningless. The SB storm looked like a big hit 8 days out until it has since turned into a strung out almost indistinguishable wave well south of us. All we know is there is probably a higher chance than normal for that storm to be a cutter....but don't bother locking in solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This ain't exactly screaming "powder day": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 I wonder what the records are as far as winter rainfall at the SNE climo sites (DJF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The Euro brings BTV to 63F verbatim in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wonder what the records are as far as winter rainfall at the SNE climo sites (DJF) For precip, the wettest winter in ORH is 1957-1958. For most rainfall, I'd guess 1978-1979...we don't really have records for ptype though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, eyewall said: The Euro brings BTV to 63F verbatim in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: It is that time for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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