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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill
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4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Nam has shifted it's focus almost solely on the second wave Saturday night. By then our temps are toast and it rains with a couple pingers. 

That trend started a few runs ago and concerned me.  Its been on the other guidance also but with less separation between the waves and lighter with the second so it was less obvious.  But the better runs that were more "exciting" were a couple days ago when that first pulse coming in early Saturday looked healthy and right over our area.  Since that has been more and more suppressed and instead we get several weak waves as the cold retreats.  Thats not as promising a setup.  

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good run for places to our southwest like CHO, they could get 1-3" with that initial wave early Saturday, for everywhere else it looks like 24 hours of on and off light mixed crap.  Perfect weekend weather.  33 and snizzle all weekend

Correction:  places southwest could get a glaze of ice, too much warm layer in mid levels for snow 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That trend started a few runs ago and concerned me.  Its been on the other guidance also but with less separation between the waves and lighter with the second so it was less obvious.  But the better runs that were more "exciting" were a couple days ago when that first pulse coming in early Saturday looked healthy and right over our area.  Since that has been more and more suppressed and instead we get several weak waves as the cold retreats.  Thats not as promising a setup.  

Time to hope for wave 1 to go south and hold in the cold for wave 2. :weenie:

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What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared.  I doubt that no cad will happen like that.  Models almost always struggle with these types of setups.  Does anyone remember an instance where a modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins?  I don't think I can think of one in recent memory!

12z gfs today

gfs_T2m_eus_5.png

12z gfs from yesterday

gfs_T2m_eus_9.png

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1 minute ago, BTRWx said:

What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared.  I doubt that no cad will happen like that.  Models almost always struggle with these types of setups.  Does anyone remember an instance where I modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins?  I don't think I can think of one in recent memory!

gfs_T2m_eus_5.png

 

Meh. High has slowly been getting weaker run after run. And with the precip getting here faster, I just don't think the cold air ever makes it.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Is it really that CAD disappeared, or is it that the cold air just isn't pressing as far south? It's not like there was ever CAD down into the south like we typically see.

true, but the fact the models have been showing the signal all week makes me wonder

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What's odd is the cold air damming signal practically disappeared.  I doubt that no cad will happen like that.  Models almost always struggle with these types of setups.  Does anyone remember an instance where a modeled cad event completely disappears when precip begins?  I don't think I can think of one in recent memory!

12z gfs today

12z gfs from yesterday

 

I believe that most of the times where we get cold air hanging on longer than the models suggest, it has been a firmly entrenched airmass.  On this one, we are counting on cold air advection.  I'm not sure the same "rules" will apply here.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I believe that most of the times where we get cold air hanging on longer than the models suggest, it has been a firmly entrenched airmass.  On this one, we are counting on cold air advection.  I'm not sure the same "rules" will apply here.

Thank you. That makes sense.

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17 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Keep an eye on the trend of the dew point temperatures. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017011312/t3/dewp_t32m_f12.png

 

The 14z HRRR had the DCA area at 37/29 at 8z, and the southward push of the drier DPs had stopped.  Not ideal if you are looking for interesting ZR.

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