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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The kind of data being posted isn't available for Winchester AFAIK.  No offense, but what it says for DC matters not here.

I use the American Weather Models pages for the skew data. It does show data for Winchester. Whether or not this is accurate I am not sure, but i assume it is.

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Bufkit NAM says...not bad, not bad at all

The profiles don't change much for dca for much of Saturday from snow early A.M. ~6:00 to sleet ~8:00 then midday lull, then a interestingly notable freezing rain column Saturday evening wow!

 

bufkit screenshot nam 11z.jpg

bufkit screenshot nam 14z.jpg

bufkit screenshot nam 22z.jpg

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24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You don't warm frozen ground with one or two days of warmth.  You might warm the top 1/2" but the ground is frozen.

I promise you if snow falls I'll post pics of the snow covered ground shortly after it falls ... just like I did last week when this discussion was had the first time.

Was it frozen? Never was here. I had 6" of snow here last Saturday. By Sunday mid morning it was 4.5". The air temp was a max of 24 during the event, and fell to the mid teens following it. High on Sunday was 23. In the days preceding the storm, there was a significant amount of rainfall and mild temps, followed by 2 days with high temps in the mid 30s. I don't think I lost an inch and a half of snow from sublimation.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Was it frozen? Never was here. I had 6" of snow here last Saturday. By Sunday mid morning it was 4.5". The air temp was a max of 24 during the event, and fell to the mid teens following it. High on Sunday was 23. In the days preceding the storm, there was a significant amount of rainfall and mild temps, followed by 2 days with high temps in the mid 30s. I don't think I lost an inch and a half of snow from sublimation.

Solid as a rock here.  We still have ice on ponds.

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2 minutes ago, SLPressure said:

The 18z GFS sounding for Winchester at 45 has 800's at 0.1 and 850's at 0.4

Thank you.

Ive no illusions that we go snow all the way through.  I felt like maybe 1am to 10am and then change.  But with decent rates you could get 3" or so out of that many hours.

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I hope everyone here is okay with me posting this here (move the meted forums as you wish)

I'm going to give an overview here how to read these soundings maps.  Please don't hurt the messenger.  I'm only trying to help the new members! 

First, the red line shows the temperature of an air parcel in the given atmosphere and green is the same for the dew point temperature.  The x-axis shows different temperatures and mixing ratios along a linear axis for analysis purposes.  y=0 is the surface of the Earth and the entire y-axis corresponds to elevation/heights above the surface.  Each horizontal dashed white line is an isobar showing constant pressure values.

Here are some simplified interpretation suggestions.

1) the 0 temperature line that rises to the upper right is important.  To the left of this line show frozen precipitation and to the right of this 0 degree isotherm line of constant temperature shows liquid precipitation above freezing that would fall as rain. 

2) The surface and just above are important for precipitation types.  The longer the line stays to the left of the 0 line, the more likely snow will fall. 

3) To determine precipitation, the red and green lines must be as close together and adjacent as possible.  Typically when the difference between the temperature and dew point is less than or equal to 5 degrees at the surface, precipitation may be expected. The difference is known as the dew point depression.  We want this number close to 0 for heavy precip. 

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Solid as a rock here.  We still have ice on ponds.

Not here. Two days of temps in the 30s followed by an insulating layer of snow wont do it. The very cold temps came after it fell, and thats probably why the ground wasn't really frozen here. And initially I thought settling was most likely the culprit because it was a powdery snow, but it wasn't those big airy dendrites. It had that somewhat lumpy, sunken look to it. Clearly melted from the bottom due to wet, relatively warm soil.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thank you.

Ive no illusions that we go snow all the way through.  I felt like maybe 1am to 10am and then change.  But with decent rates you could get 3" or so out of that many hours.

Obviously the models are all over the place on this one. A little bump in precipitation rates or temperatures and where the line sets up will make all the difference. It does seem that it will be a low end event. You never know. Just gotta see how things unfold...

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