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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's the band I'm talking  about. 

H5 is a little high up, but there's pretty good lift there (think I saw over 12 microbars) and we're saturated from the sfc up to H45 so we could avoid pesky virga layers. We'll see. Maybe we can turn a 0.20" into 3-5".

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I have been following this intermittently the last few days, one thing i have heard consistently is how good the mid levels look for the eastern 1/3 of mass. With all the talk of mid level magic i was surprised to see this never even closes off a 7H low at all.

This is probably 8my ignorance. But how much mid level magic can be had without a closed 7H low. 

I had visions of a weenie band extending into 128 or 495, would this not show up somewhere On 500mb vvs or 700 mb vvs

Just didnt look that impressive outside of cape and then of course the ocean enahancement fluff for s coast and pym counties

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Here is my updated snow map, I expanded the heavy snows westward, to account for potential mesoscale banding features moving further northwest than the initial QPF maps show.  Models if they do back off have no reason to back off, so I will take them with a grain of salt.  As for the max amounts near 20"+, they will happen in bands on Cape Cod as short range models show the heaviest precipitation and snowfall on the Cape and Nantucket.  Therefore, I have them in the 20"+, NWS forecast is not all that different from mine.  Maybe they are less bullish further west, but that will take care of itself and is in line with the rest of the guidance suite.  I will post one more snow fall map tomorrow before the system starts up, which will be likely in the early morning hours.  Snowfall looks to start as ocean effect snows develop ahead of the storm due to cold northeasterly winds blowing over relatively warmer ocean waters northeast of Cape Cod.  Even though recent cooling has taken place, these ocean temps are still 8C above freezing so we have delta ts reach into the 20C range promoting the development of ocean effect snows.  They shouldn't accumulate anything more than an inch maybe in spots.  The snow should start to fall around 7-8am and then the heavy snow starts around 11am local time.  I like to go bullish sometimes in storms like this with GOM moisture involved and over 44,000 lightning strikes involved in the storms over the Gulf Coast.  If Norfolk, VA reaches 18", Cape Cod should be able to reach 24" as the storm first strengthens further than off the Norfolk coastline and banding is better developed to dump a huge amount of snow on the Cape.  Therefore my forecast snowfall range for the Cape and Nantucket is around 18-24". for Boston to Providence corridor, banding should allow 10-14" to develop, Plymouth county will see roughly 12-18" maybe some spots in the county receive 20"+.  SE NH to Hartford, CT will see 3-6", 4-8".  Western CT should see a few inches.  Martha's Vineyard will be closer to 18-20" then over 20" of snow.  The storm deepens from 1008mb of Norfolk, VA to around 996mb east of CHH leading to explosive cyclogenesis over the Gulf Stream enhanced baroclinic zone.  This will allow the strongest banding to the northwest of the track over Cape Cod and Nantucket.  Also blizzard conditions are likely as the storm deepens rapidly.  40-50mph gusts likely will cause whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions could exist for up to 6 hours.  Thank you for reading and taking the time to listen to my thoughts.

January 7th and 8th 2017 Blizzard of 2017.gif

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Norfolk County is the winner on the 3km run tnite.  15"

I like the jack to be in that Norfolk/Plymouth CJ zone. I haven't overly analyzed much on this system since I'm on the outer fringe looking in, but I kinda liked that RPM snow map posted for the general winners/totals. Looks like a fun one down there.

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