USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DamnIce said: Snow ends much earlier here in CT on the 0Z NAM. Did we lose some of that convergence Ryan was alluding too? Seems the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 This was always a 21 hour event, and you put an inch an hour throughout the event we get 21" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We takey the 12km NAM. About 14". Add the 4km with about 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: QPF shield a little better Its 0.25" plus qpf even up here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4km showing the nuances. I like my location just 10 miles SW of KBOS. I'm slightly elevated with a slope facing eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The 00z NAM gets that H5 fronto up to here for a good 6hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4km NAM backed off appreciably from 18z, which was probably overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 3k def looks east with the good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The 00z NAM gets that H5 fronto up to here for a good 6hr period. Yeah that's the band I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4km NAM definitely chopped totals quite a bit. Not sure what the reason is for it but it is definitely noticeable comparing 00z to 18z QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that's the band I'm talking about. H5 is a little high up, but there's pretty good lift there (think I saw over 12 microbars) and we're saturated from the sfc up to H45 so we could avoid pesky virga layers. We'll see. Maybe we can turn a 0.20" into 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Great looking band over CT up thru C Mass on NAM. That's S+ for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks slightly better imby. What it did was chop the big totals and the house highest qpf is west of James right over your head. It also moved the precip nicely into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: It also moved the precip nicely into Maine. I actually compared and was wrong so I deleted the post. I thnk the difference is model noise but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 18Z 4km NAM. Game ON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nice 24" spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I have been following this intermittently the last few days, one thing i have heard consistently is how good the mid levels look for the eastern 1/3 of mass. With all the talk of mid level magic i was surprised to see this never even closes off a 7H low at all. This is probably 8my ignorance. But how much mid level magic can be had without a closed 7H low. I had visions of a weenie band extending into 128 or 495, would this not show up somewhere On 500mb vvs or 700 mb vvs Just didnt look that impressive outside of cape and then of course the ocean enahancement fluff for s coast and pym counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Here is my updated snow map, I expanded the heavy snows westward, to account for potential mesoscale banding features moving further northwest than the initial QPF maps show. Models if they do back off have no reason to back off, so I will take them with a grain of salt. As for the max amounts near 20"+, they will happen in bands on Cape Cod as short range models show the heaviest precipitation and snowfall on the Cape and Nantucket. Therefore, I have them in the 20"+, NWS forecast is not all that different from mine. Maybe they are less bullish further west, but that will take care of itself and is in line with the rest of the guidance suite. I will post one more snow fall map tomorrow before the system starts up, which will be likely in the early morning hours. Snowfall looks to start as ocean effect snows develop ahead of the storm due to cold northeasterly winds blowing over relatively warmer ocean waters northeast of Cape Cod. Even though recent cooling has taken place, these ocean temps are still 8C above freezing so we have delta ts reach into the 20C range promoting the development of ocean effect snows. They shouldn't accumulate anything more than an inch maybe in spots. The snow should start to fall around 7-8am and then the heavy snow starts around 11am local time. I like to go bullish sometimes in storms like this with GOM moisture involved and over 44,000 lightning strikes involved in the storms over the Gulf Coast. If Norfolk, VA reaches 18", Cape Cod should be able to reach 24" as the storm first strengthens further than off the Norfolk coastline and banding is better developed to dump a huge amount of snow on the Cape. Therefore my forecast snowfall range for the Cape and Nantucket is around 18-24". for Boston to Providence corridor, banding should allow 10-14" to develop, Plymouth county will see roughly 12-18" maybe some spots in the county receive 20"+. SE NH to Hartford, CT will see 3-6", 4-8". Western CT should see a few inches. Martha's Vineyard will be closer to 18-20" then over 20" of snow. The storm deepens from 1008mb of Norfolk, VA to around 996mb east of CHH leading to explosive cyclogenesis over the Gulf Stream enhanced baroclinic zone. This will allow the strongest banding to the northwest of the track over Cape Cod and Nantucket. Also blizzard conditions are likely as the storm deepens rapidly. 40-50mph gusts likely will cause whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions could exist for up to 6 hours. Thank you for reading and taking the time to listen to my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Norfolk County is the winner on the 3km run tnite. 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 James your snow map shows 6-12 in central CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Ohhh james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Norfolk County is the winner on the 3km run tnite. 15" I endorse that-which reminds me I just called for jury duty in Norfolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Short Range RAP model 1z run shows large banding reaching the Cape and Nantucket. Further west than previous few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Do we have to wait until 130 in the morning to get the model diagnostic reports ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Lol...James has this as a 2 day event. James-you're good for 16 hours max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, db306 said: James your snow map shows 6-12 in central CT? Banding will show random amounts higher than the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 FIYAAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Norfolk County is the winner on the 3km run tnite. 15" I like the jack to be in that Norfolk/Plymouth CJ zone. I haven't overly analyzed much on this system since I'm on the outer fringe looking in, but I kinda liked that RPM snow map posted for the general winners/totals. Looks like a fun one down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Lol...James has this as a 2 day event. James-you're good for 16 hours max. I seriously think we can get 2-3"/hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I seriously think we can get 2-3"/hour rates. Yes...but not for the whole storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.