The 4 Seasons Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow i can't believe how low the NWS is going for CT both box and okx. Those numbers and WSWs will likely have to be expanded tonight or early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Tough call on advys back here in advyland. I'm pretty confident we can pull 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at this modeled band on the 3km. Sitting almost over RT44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wow i can't believe how low the NWS is going for CT both box and okx. Those numbers and WSWs will likely have to be expanded tonight or early tomorrow. Yeah it's odd. The NWS almost always is higher than what I have - sometimes by a factor of 2 - but today they seem really low. Almost like playing catchup. This is our forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, CarverWX said: Sitting almost over RT44 Godspeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, radarman said: Tough call on advys back here in advyland. I'm pretty confident we can pull 3". Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that. Might be a bigger issue more up toward the VT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Wow i can't believe how low the NWS is going for CT both box and okx. Those numbers and WSWs will likely have to be expanded tonight or early tomorrow. I was shocked to see them lower the number from earlier here between Waterbury and Danbury....we had more here this morning in 2 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 3km NAM is a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 man, that is a perfect track for a vmax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it's odd. The NWS almost always is higher than what I have - sometimes by a factor of 2 - but today they seem really low. Almost like playing catchup. This is our forecast. Would love to see that red in CT and the 4-8 back here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'd take the 3k Nam all day, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that. Can envision more small flakes like today, like Jan 2015, and like so many others... So that's not going to help totals... But maybe a brief heavier band, and also not ruling out some remnant IVT like convergence snows in the valley proper as the ULL starts to approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah probably...the only thing I worry about once west of ORH county is choking on dry air advecting down the CT Valley. That could try and chew up the precip shield in that area, though I think there will probably be enough surge in the mid-levels to the NW in mid/late afternoon to overcome that. Might be a bigger issue more up toward the VT border. I didn't see a big signal for a CT River Valley hose job down here with the low level dry advection. Maybe farther north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, rnaude241 said: I'd take the 3k Nam all day, wow. Looked like 3km maxed out at 19" in N PYM/Bristol counties in MA back into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I didn't see a big signal for a CT River Valley hose job down here with the low level dry advection. Maybe farther north though. Yeah you are well south of where that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you are well south of where that could happen. Yeah normally I target in on that - it's my biggest nightmare. I think we do well here with that low level convergence. I really wouldn't be surprised to see 6" around Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That 3k NAM is bonkers i still think 2-4" out here. Prob closer to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That 3k NAM is bonkers i still think 2-4" out here. Prob closer to 2 You'll get a 6 spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z RGEM running late, Usually out to hr 24 by now, Has not even initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Enjoy it guys. Looks like I'll be on the fringe down here. SE VA and NC look to get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: RGEM running late that may be a good sign - haha... When we were up at UML as undergrads we found a correlation existed between annoyingly late governmentally released products compared to what said products were going to contain - probably coincidence in the numbers...but it seemed to work out remarkably well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Im wondering where that outer band sets up. I dont hate my chances Norwell -Hingham Pym jack RI snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Enjoy it guys. Looks like I'll be on the fringe down here. SE VA and NC look to get pummeled. My sister lives in "HOLY SCHIT REPENT THE WRATH OF GOD 1-3" " Va Beach country. 1-3" can literally cripple that city ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: My sister lives in "HOLY SCHIT REPENT THE WRATH OF GOD 1-3" " Va Beach country. 1-3" can literally cripple that city ... They have no way or means of coping with those amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 BOX 3pm disco. .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... */ Highlights... - Winter Storm Warnings for E-coastal and SE Mass, including Cape Cod and the Islands, as well as all of RI and Block Island - Winter Weather Advisories for NE CT and E-Central MA - Widespread fluffy snow developing Saturday morning, becoming intense with time, at its height Saturday afternoon into evening before tapering overnight - Near-blizzard conditions for Coastal Plymouth County MA, Cape Cod and the Islands */ Overview... Forecast guidance has become a bit wetter, especially across areas of SE New England, with a slight nudge noted in some of the model solutions N/W towards the 40N/70W benchmark. Agree with the previous forecaster...given the synoptic forcing (discussed below) of the amplifying pattern, would want to draw the storm more N/W towards the lower heights aloft and introduce a more amplified S stream of moisture. Increasing baroclinicity, stronger cyclogenesis, boom. In summary...dealing with a widespread snow event developing during the morning hours Saturday, the height of which will be Saturday afternoon into evening before tapering off Saturday night with some ocean effect snows lingering over the Cape and Islands. Heavy snow at times, blowing and drifting as well. Visibility dropping to a quarter mile or less at times, especially across SE coastal MA where near-blizzard conditions are forecast. */ Discussion... Synoptically...elongated H5 trough undergoes a neutral tilt with a potent shortwave cyclonically digging through the base drawing S- stream sub-tropical energy N from the Gulf of Mexico. A surface reflection of low pressure emerges out of the Gulf deepening SW to NE a couple of degrees S/E of the 40N/70W benchmark, impacting S New England particularly Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with warning-level moderate to heavy snow. Digging further along with an enhancement of a SW-NE upper level jet with strong divergence within the right rear quadrant, looking at a pronounced area of QG-forcing emerging out of the lower MS valley transitioning NE into S New England along the leading edge of the cyclonic vort-max by late afternoon Saturday into Saturday evening. Well-defined SW-NE low to mid level frontogenesis evolves with the isentropic draw of the warm-moist conveyor belt up against colder air digging out of Canada, collocated with potential instability (believing the 06.12z high-res NAM/WRF) and -EPV in favorable areas of snow growth. This supports the likelihood of developing snow banding signatures with snowfall rates at or in excess of 1 inch an hour given the saturated column up through H5 through which lift and forcing becomes pronounced ahead of stout dynamics discussed above. Not so much confident on the possibility of thundersnow. Add this to the low level environment in where H85 temperatures are forecast to hover around -12C with ocean sea-surface temperatures around +8C, a difference of roughly 20C, as cyclogenesis is ongoing offshore enhancing the boundary-layer wind profile. An unstable environment with steep lapse rates on up to H8 through which there is a blustery NE flow with the potential for gusts up to 40 mph, dependent on proximity of the H85-surface low to S New England and how quickly it deepens. The onshore warmer flow crashing up against colder air across the interior, looking at ocean-fetch enhancement converging along a forecast coastal front. So in addition to the mid to upper level synoptics, there is also the likelihood localized moist convergence / frontogenesis closer to the surface off the waters. Game plan...So evaluating the forecast guidance, both global models and high-res guidance, we`ll follow closely with high-res guidance, particularly the WRF models, with regards to 2m temperatures and dewpoints, as well as the winds, acknowledging the presence of the coastal front with gusty onshore flow given an unstable boundary- layer. Meanwhile going with a global / high-res blend of PoP and precipitation amounts so that we don`t lean heavily on one side of the envelope, but still acknowledging the a tight gradient that will likely reside over SE New England with the coastal front, more specifically roughly N-S through the heart of Plymouth County MA. Also want to go slightly wetter than the previous forecast. Snowfall...Considering snow ratios around 15:1 to 20:1, looking at advisory level snow stretching from NE MA down through Northeast CT with warning level snows along around around, as well as S/E, of the I-95 corridor with amounts a foot-plus for Plymouth County, Cape Cod and the Islands (excluding Block Island) with the aforementioned ocean effect enhancement. Coupled with forecast blustery NE winds, expecting blowing and drifting snow given the expected fluffiness, especially along the E/SE coastline. Have added blowing snow where NE winds gust at or in excess of 25 mph. There is some concern of blizzard conditions along the immediate SE MA coast. Evaluating the high-res guidance, believe the stronger of the winds will follow the storm as snow tapers off, not during. A marginal scenario it would appear, will highlight the near-blizzard conditions in the headlines which are discussed below. Headlines...Winter Storm Warnings for E-coastal and SE Mass which includes Cape Cod and the Islands, all of Rhode Island including Block Island. Winter Weather Advisories for NE CT and E-Central MA. Takeaways...Always be prepared and situationally aware. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts. Untreated roads will become snow covered and slick. Visibility will be reduced down to a quarter or a mile or less at times, especially for coastal SE Mass. Travel will become hazardous as snow becomes heavy at times along with gusty NE winds resulting in considerable blowing and drifting snow with near white- out conditions. Exercise caution if you have to be out on the roads, and give your-self plenty of time to get to your destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WPC forecasts the surface low to pass within 100 miles southeast of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Surface low already appears 3mb stronger over the central GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 18z 4km NAM forecasted heavier precip over SE MA then previous runs. Now forecasts up to 2" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 RGEM is finally running. Already decently W of the 12z run at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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