jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We don't normally get a lead wave like we got today ahead of such a significant snowstorm. It's tough to find a warning level event for Norfolk and Cape Cod when NYC also doesn't also get 6 or more. I think if the lead wave today didn't push the baroclinic zone east, then the the second wave tomorrow would have passed closer to the BM and NYC would have had a shot at 6 or more. 12/26/04 might be an example. I think I remember 2 or 3" in Long Beach from that and much more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z RGEM Hr33 (Bottom), 18z RGEM Hr27 (Top) Big time west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, snywx said: 12z RGEM Hr33 (Top), 18z RGEM Hr27 (Bottom) Big time west! You sure it's not the opposite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Great sign seeing the RGEM move way west. I'd take the RGEM's support over the NAM's any day of the week. Although the GFS's shift didn't lead to a very large change in precip, the improvement in the mid-levels is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: You sure it's not the opposite? It was edited.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: 12z RGEM Hr33 (Bottom), 18z RGEM Hr27 (Top) Big time west! Has that invt trough running from Western Mass through Suffolk, LI. Would be awesome if that works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcastic robot Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Love how the RGEM is looking. Way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Eduardo said: Has that invt trough running from Western Mass through Suffolk, LI. Would be awesome if that works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow rgem is warning criteria everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Wow rgem is warning criteria everywhere Can someone put up a total output for the metro? I'm at work (don't work in met field). Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not too be too much a weenie, but looking at the current radar depiction and water vapor loop, my eyes are trying to trick my mind that we are all in for a nice thumping come tomorrow. For me being in western Morris County, I know I will watch this slide by to the east; but my eyes are playing tricks on me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, danstorm said: Can someone put up a total output for the metro? I'm at work (don't work in met field). Thanks in advance! I don't have snowfall, but this is precip. Big jump west for sure. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty frigid during the brunt of the storm on the RGEM, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On ratios of 15:1, the city probably would flirt with warning criteria. (RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 One can only hope that the RGEM is onto something, much more favorable for our area. The RGEM is usually pretty reliable correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Not too be too much a weenie, but looking at the current radar depiction and water vapor loop, my eyes are trying to trick my mind that we are all in for a nice thumping come tomorrow. For me being in western Morris County, I know I will watch this slide by to the east; but my eyes are playing tricks on me right now. Sometimes these Gulf systems gain more energy and moisture than models depict and come north and west. That's what happened last January. This won't be the same degree of storm but hopefully can still surprise in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, nyblizz44 said: But Boston isnt under Blizzard warning. Just a WSW http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=197&y=117&site=box&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=197&map_y=117#.WHACMPArK00 I wasn't actually referring to meeting official NWS blizzard criteria in both locations, although that does seem possible with this storm. It was more along the lines of 12"+ at both Norfolk and Boston with <6" at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 There is indeed precedent for last minute shifts west with big Miller As. Not saying it's going to happen, but we've been to this dance before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, but the MA didn't get in on the act like they are forecast to tomorrow. This looks like a top level event for Norfolk. Tough to find Norfolk and CC jackpots that don't also give NYC warning level snows. http://www.weather.gov/media/akq/climateRECORDS/AKQ_Snow_Events.pdf The closest I could find was the February 23-24, 1989 snowstorm. That brought 9.0" to Norfolk, no snow to NYC, and 6.0" to New Bedford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: On ratios of 15:1, the city probably would flirt with warning criteria. (RGEM) I still don't understand where people are getting 15:1 ratios from. That could happen on Long Island which could get into some of the stronger dynamics, but I wouldn't be forecasting that everywhere. You have to look at more than just 850 and the surface as well. Things do look very nice temp wise at 700mb, but looking at the 18z in particular, most of the good RH and VV's remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wasn't actually referring to meeting official NWS blizzard criteria in both locations, although that does seem possible with this storm. It was more along the lines of 12"+ at both Norfolk and Boston with <6" at Central Park. None of Norfolk's seven 12" or greater snowstorms produced such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: On ratios of 15:1, the city probably would flirt with warning criteria. (RGEM) Advisory snows up here lol.. 6 hours ago it was suppose to be partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, danstorm said: There is indeed precedent for last minute shifts west with big Miller As. Not saying it's going to happen, but we've been to this dance before. All we really have right now for higher totals are the mesoscale models, and that always scare me because of the possibility of convective feedback causing higher than actual heights. Sort of how convection over the gulf can increase heights out ahead of system, but taken to the extreme because of the high resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The closest I could find was the February 23-24, 1989 snowstorm. That brought 9.0" to Norfolk, no snow to NYC, and 6.0" to New Bedford. Nearly 2 feet in cape may. Warnings were up for most of the area but we didn't see a flake Link http://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/25/nyregion/cancel-that-er-winter-storm-watch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z RGEM OFF Topic, but on tropicaltidbits.com how to you get the snowfall numbers to display like in your image? By default it shows a few snowfall numbers but not like your image..Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, sferic said: OFF Topic, but on tropicaltidbits.com how to you get the snowfall numbers to display like in your image? By default it shows a few snowfall numbers but not like your image..Thanks! I just select total snowfall in the precip menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I just select total snowfall in the precip menu. I do the same but this is what I get!~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 18z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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