Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Wave 2, 1/7-8/17 Discussion/OBS


Rjay

Recommended Posts

  • Rjay pinned this topic
  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Very possible however my red flag for this event, is zero ensembles support, the EPS and Gefs are pretty unanimous on a near miss solution, which is right in line with ggem/GFS/nam/euro.... no reason other than staying hopeful to think this thing has what it takes to get out ahead of the energy dropping from Canada allowing for the trough to dig and phase in time to bring it up coast...I'm not sayin it's impossible, I just think it's not gonna happen for anyone west of eastern Long Island... best place to be is ELI, and I think they could overperform, but I think they overperform with wave 1 not wave 2...

 

Also keep in mind single digit dew points, and a very cold air mass, with a progressive flow, and late phase... your gonna need to see some decent DBZ overhead otherwise your LE pours virga 

 

only shot we have is models are wrong on the timing and we get an earlier phase

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The big question, is this the start of a continuing trend further north and west? The next 24-36 hours of model runs should be very interesting.

This sums it up perfectly from ORH Wxman in NE thread:

Here's where the PNA ridge comes into to play...a more amped PNA ridge will help push the lakes energy more south rather than east so that the southern stream has room to round the base and come up the east side of the trough....so we'll want to root for a more amped PNA ridge. A sharper southern stream can help too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF actually had a nice improvement vs. the 1/5 0z run.

ACY: 0.22" (0z: 0.02")

ISP: 0.14" (0z: None)

NYC: 0.03" (0z: None)

SBY: 0.42" (0z: 0.18")

 

This is going to be close. I think the radar will be painful to watch as it's dumping on the fish.   Someone's going to smoke cirrus north off the city too ala feb 5 2010. The jersey shore and the island are very much still in the game for a moderate snow event (2-4, 3-5")

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is going to be close. I think the radar will be painful to watch as it's dumping on the fish.   Someone's going to smoke cirrus north off the city too ala feb 5 2010. The jersey shore and the island are very much still in the game for a moderate snow event (2-4, 3-5")

I agree. Hopefully, the Jersey Shore and Long Island will cash in, even if the rest of the area doesn't. Cape Cod might do well, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's probably the reason the models have shifted the track somewhat closer to shore. Hopefully, the PNA will pop positive to further sharpen the trough.

So allow me to bother you with this question Don, what could increase the chances for a temporary + PNA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

So allow me to bother you with this question Don, what could increase the chances for a temporary + PNA?

Right now, greater amplification of the pattern than currently modeled would probably lead to that outcome. The last two days have seen the guidance increase the magnitude of the forecast transitory rise in the PNA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Right now, greater amplification of the pattern than currently modeled would probably lead to that outcome. The last two days have seen the guidance increase the magnitude of the forecast transitory rise in the PNA.

Appreciate the clarification Don! Always a genteleman.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay locked and unlocked this topic
  • Rjay unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...