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C/NNE & Berks? Wintry Mix Jan 3rd/4th


dendrite

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7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That would be an awesome outcome for our area.  I started out thinking that we would lose some snow but it looks like very little will be lost.  Still not convinced that we gain but think we can at lease stay where we are at.

HRRR also likes a flip to snow after midnight for eastern/northern VT once the surface low goes north of our latitude.  We just need to get that pesky H85 warm layer to cool back and its over to wet snow.

hrrr_ref_neng_16.png

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah PF I was looking at the front end signal, but I agree with VT when the ULL support is better and may help cool the column a bit there.

Yeah I've been watching it but it seems to be a more pronounced signal on all the 12z guidance.  My thinking is we go from a mid-slope freezing rain event with 32-34F rain in the valleys to a period of elevation snow with 1-3" above 1,000ft.  Overall the QPF has been diminishing and its actually better up here for precip to be delayed until the ULL moves in and the surface low in Maine moves northeast.  Seems to wash out that pesky mid-level warmth and goes to a more normal thermal profile of cooling with height.

I'm just trying to figure out my mountain forecast tonight, ha.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I've been watching it but it seems to be a more pronounced signal on all the 12z guidance.  My thinking is we go from a mid-slope freezing rain event with 32-34F rain in the valleys to a period of elevation snow with 1-3" above 1,000ft.  Overall the QPF has been diminishing and its actually better up here for precip to be delayed until the ULL moves in and the surface low in Maine moves northeast.  Seems to wash out that pesky mid-level warmth and goes to a more normal thermal profile of cooling with height.

I'm just trying to figure out my mountain forecast tonight, ha.

I noticed that mid slope potential on the soundings as well. Think you are right there may be a band of pretty good ZR before you cool the column back down

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1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

I noticed that mid slope potential on the soundings as well. Think you are right there may be a band of pretty good ZR before you cool the column back down

Yeah the mountain's steep east slope is quite protected from SSW winds aloft by the 4000ft ridgeline.  Currently our coldest spot on our MTN network is Norm's Valve House on Liftline at 2700ft and with 925mb holding at -1C for the event that's where I think we ice up a lot tonight.  That slope faces NE and is a big reason why this place has the snow retention it does...like a mini-CAD weenie spot.

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Still snowing at Pico.  Been snowing since noon when it was 32.3.  Temp went down to 31.  Now back to 31.8.

maybe an inch or so.  It's been blowing tiny flakes sideways. We will take it!  Seems to be struggling now in the past several minutes.  Some rain mixing in now.  Hoping for a full flip back in the next several hours.  Temp now steady at 31.4.

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My post earlier when I put the Campton Mtn webcam live:

Not sure if that's snow or not. Temp at top of hill is 30.9 @1800', and 35.6 at 800'. The base of Campton Mtn is around 1200', so we're probably really close...

Still haven't put the weather station online, but hopefully by this weekend. My guess is the temp is probably around 33

http://24.103.196.50/stream.jpg

Edit:

While we're still waiting to put the base weather station online (at 1200'), one of the neighbors near the top of the lift put their weather station online. When you zoom in, you can see the double chairlift and trails on the map. Wow, what a weenie I am:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNHCAMPT6

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32.2F light rain has begun. Temp has not budged even with real precip starting.   It's mixed with a few cat paws but if you were not a weather weenie people would say your nuts that it has a mix in it. Surprised that its snowing well to my west since the source of cold air is in upstate Maine.

MarkO  that looks like definite snow mixed in.  Snowing on Alex's cam at Bretton Woods but not sticking yet. 

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Sleet and rain mix here.

Summit of the mountain is still sitting at 25F so its cold up there somewhere.

I noticed the Sugarbush snow cam has an inch or two of new frozen in the past couple hours and although they've had drifting issues, it looks legit given the heavier echoes.  Don't see many flakes but there's accumulation of something.  Might be sleet then.

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