dendrite Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The GFS is close to starting as snow here this evening. 18hr was close...24hr was ra/zr. Didn't see the 21z sounding, but it looked wintry. Maybe a few hour period of snow north of here? Especially toward North Conway/IZG. IZG looked like a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS is close to starting as snow here this evening. 18hr was close...24hr was ra/zr. Didn't see the 21z sounding, but it looked wintry. Maybe a few hour period of snow north of here? Especially toward North Conway/IZG. IZG looked like a nice thump. LCI looked like snow through evening at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS is close to starting as snow here this evening. 18hr was close...24hr was ra/zr. Didn't see the 21z sounding, but it looked wintry. Maybe a few hour period of snow north of here? Especially toward North Conway/IZG. IZG looked like a nice thump. Much more muted with that 800mb warm nose than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Tone of lift from H7-H5 in central NH. it would not surprise me if people pretty far south in the state get parachutes this evening if the GFS is right. You'll need strong lift though....not fractured or banded precip on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 HRRR is rather chilly through 900mb this evening. If there is ZR....that's a good indicator for above 500' IMO. Might even be sleet as the hydrometeors may not totally melt given meh warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 45 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS is close to starting as snow here this evening. 18hr was close...24hr was ra/zr. Didn't see the 21z sounding, but it looked wintry. Maybe a few hour period of snow north of here? Especially toward North Conway/IZG. IZG looked like a nice thump. yes very interesting how much cooler the column is becoming Dry Slot and the interior sub foothills Maine crew is suddenly in the game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not looking forward to cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 You know it's been a decent winter up this way when most of these storms this season have all trended more favorably when we start getting inside 48 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 lol at the 3km Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol at the 3km Nam HRRR isn't so bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: HRRR isn't so bad either. Well, I think its counting all that as snow, Not happening down here but more so as you get into the mtns of ME/NH and Northern Maine, I don't think we are seeing those totals down this way, Hope i'm wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Well, I think its counting all that as snow, Not happening down here but more so as you get into the mtns of ME/NH and Northern Maine, I don't think we are seeing those totals down this way, Hope i'm wrong..... Yeah looking at pivotal weather their snow graphic is alot less generous. Spits out some pretty impressive ZR over the high terrain W-C NH into parts of ME. Soundings off the 4km do get interesting when the lift moves through for areas further south in C NH/ME. Trys to fight that warm layer aloft for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It's interesting because I could see how lakes region gets a decent hit of snow, or they may be 0.5F too warm. Usually though...when I see those 925-850 temps bump cool as air is forced into the east slopes of the whites..it gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Light drizzle now at 1400' outside Manchester Vermont. Also supprisingly windy. I'll post an ob from 3800' feet in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 not good from GYX 1034 am update: minor changes to ptypes through the afternoon as the new 12z NAM has caught on to what we are seeing in the observations...that is temps are warmer aloft than previously expected. Noting the sleet at mwn showing above freezing air aloft making it this far North...Well ahead of the rap. Have adjusted the forecast towards the NAM based on this evolution...but overall headlines remain intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Real close call from Winni on NE still late today and tonight. Good be a thump closet o IZG, but perhaps nrn parts of Winni get it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 From Stratton; rain below 1500', freezing rain above that with a solid glaze on all surfaces. This continues up into the clouds above 3,000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 In Boston driving back up to the Frozen Hinterland. Watching my weather station temperature it's been inching up now 32.2 and 1100 feet in central New Hampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Don't think we'll see the 1-3" SN forecast. Up to 31.3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Real close call from Winni on NE still late today and tonight. Good be a thump closet o IZG, but perhaps nrn parts of Winni get it too. Could be fairly omega dependent this evening from Eek toward the Muddy Moose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Could be fairly omega dependent this evening from Eek toward the Muddy Moose. Yeah if it's fractured and banded then it probably won't be good enough for a more widespread omega cooling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Watching my weather station .http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/ driving north on 93 now goes from no snow to totally covered in three exits in Southern New Hampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Car was crusted over in ice at 9 am at Pico when we left for Killington. Many lifts not running due to ice. Upper trails chatteroy but softer down low. Freezing fog and light freezing rain mixing with snow while we skied. It was 35 in the parking lot at Killington by the gondola at 11:45 when we quit skiing and the car windows were just wet still. We skied a short day because we did not want to get caught on the Killington side of the pass if it closed due to freezing rain but the pass was 33 when we went over it. The memory of the fatal tractor trailer accident on the pass 12/28/15 still fresh in our minds. Seems this is so borderline that micro climates are coming into play. Snowing at a Pico VT for at least the past hour and a half. 32 degrees now at Pico. Definitely colder on this side of the pass. In contrast after being at Killington it's clear the Pico got shadowed in last Thursday's storm as Killington received significantly more snow in that storm. It's really too bad that Pico just uses the Killington snow observations when reporting as there are pretty serious differences each side of the pass in any given storm. Maybe today is Pico's turn to get the better precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah if it's fractured and banded then it probably won't be good enough for a more widespread omega cooling event. You guys are looking at front end snow right? Everything I'm looking at from 12z runs appears to look like the snow potential is there after midnight tonight up this way. We're well above freezing aloft through like 9p-12a and then H85 through H7 cools off sufficiently for snow as the precipitation swings through. Most the RGEM/EURO/GFS/NAM all show 0.1-0.3" after midnight in a sub-freezing column...but it may become elevation dependent (ie if its 34F in the valleys its rain there and snow at 32F at 1,500ft and up). I'd be curious about any thoughts after midnight tonight up here. Ending as a period of snow would be huge for ski conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: You guys are looking at front end snow right? Everything I'm looking at from 12z runs appears to look like the snow potential is there after midnight tonight up this way. We're well above freezing aloft through like 9p-12a and then H85 through H7 cools off sufficiently for snow as the precipitation swings through. Most the RGEM/EURO/GFS/NAM all show 0.1-0.3" after midnight in a sub-freezing column...but it may become elevation dependent (ie if its 34F in the valleys its rain there and snow at 32F at 1,500ft and up). Yeah front end looks decent for sugarloaf to SR in Maine and perhaps into adjacent NH areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Pretty good wedge of cold air at H85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah front end looks decent for sugarloaf to SR in Maine and perhaps into adjacent NH areas. Yeah I think our snow comes after midnight. I doubt many of you have looked at VT as much as NH/ME but I'm seeing a period of snow after midnight up this way on most models as the mid-levels cool. You can see it on the RGEM precip maps...note the early snow in ME through 3z. Then mid-levels cool and it snows in VT after that from like 6z-12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Be interesting to see what happens... all the meso-scale models have a nice period of snow here after midnight. Front end event in NH/ME and then potential to end as a couple inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Be interesting to see what happens... all the meso-scale models have a nice period of snow here after midnight. Front end event in NH/ME and then potential to end as a couple inches of snow here. That would be an awesome outcome for our area. I started out thinking that we would lose some snow but it looks like very little will be lost. Still not convinced that we gain but think we can at lease stay where we are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Passing north of Brian's latitude now on Route 93 temperature down to 33 moderate drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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