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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

LOL...Just saw that.  GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM.  But NAM cut it big time for some reason.  Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM.  But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega.

Think it will cross the mountain?

 

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21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

That warm nose in NE GA concerns me. Isn't that near Lookout's house ?

yep. With each run the models have trended slightly warmer..sometimes just a half a degree. Up until now the temps aloft and just above the surface made me believe snow was likely to overcome any near ground warm layer where i'm at. But with each run this is becoming less likely...to the point now that unless there is some truly heavy precip/strong dynamical cooling processes...accumulations here..even of sleet...seem to be slimmer and slimmer.  To be sure things haven't changed a hell of a lot for most...it's just that i've been right on the line for a while and these tiny changes mean a lot where i'm at. So

that doesn't mean the same applies for areas just north of here...generally along and north of a line from just north of athens to royston to hartwell should be ok...although sleet will probably be an issue. But where i'm at, east of athens, it looks like a no go for the most part....so it looks like i'm going to head to gainesville this afternoon. don't think i could possibly sit here and watch it pour rain while 30 miles away they are getting slammed. 

I have to be back by monday...preferably late sunday afternoon though... i just hope i actually can if it snows that 10 to 12 inches lol. 

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Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Charlotte, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

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2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM.

Oh, I'm certainly not counting on it lol.  But I'll admit, I will be starring out the back door looking for a sleet pellet or flake to mix in hoping for a miracle. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

 

That pretty much shows exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to the 850 mb low. Those just under it will get enhanced lift because of the colder north/northeast winds and warmer South/Southwest winds colliding.

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The track of this system looks like a decent track for the Triangle back toward Charlotte in terms of snow, but the thermals don't match that at all.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Grit, do you have links to any FGEN products? Lost my links for those.

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1 minute ago, SnowDeac said:

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb?

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When we get in this super short range I like to track the HRRR model for potential shifts.  It runs every hour and the latest 14z run has the heavy precip band further north for sure across GA.  I don't really like it for P-Type stuff so this look all I'm interested in is the potential radar presentation.

 

hrrr_2017010614_ref_georgia.gif

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Corrected my statement...meant to say NW of Charlotte to Hickory

Yep, looks like the gradient packing is literally running 85.  I don't think I miss out on the mixing here across from Mt Holly but have a feeling that the majority of precip will be snow.  We are basically in nowcast mode anyway, that said the temperature and dew point currently shown at KCLT is a little concerning.  The good thing going is we do have a NE wind, interesting to see what observations become as we enter the mid to late afternoon.

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Just now, MotoWeatherman said:

When we get in this super short range I like to track the HRRR model for potential shifts.  It runs every hour and the latest 14z run has the heavy precip band further north for sure across GA.  I don't really like it for P-Type stuff so this look all I'm interested in is the potential radar presentation.

 

hrrr_2017010614_ref_georgia.gif

yeah..same here. I also don't like following it's surface temps..usually it's way too warm.  You sure look to be in a good spot now. 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The track of this system looks like a decent track for the Triangle back toward Charlotte in terms of snow, but the thermals don't match that at all.

Sfc low track and upper jet structure are classic.  The 500mb wave and 850mb low are tracking too far north....need those farther south to be ideal

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS.  Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line.  Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis).  This suggests somewhere NW of Charlotte, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area.

wujmv7.gif

Reminding me of March '09 a bit

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21 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume.

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

1.5.17 SNOWCAST MAP_3.png

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19 minutes ago, CherokeeGA said:

After days of thinking this would mostly be south of us, I'm starting to hope we'll get a few inches.  You might have some good luck around here, we're a bit southeast of Ball Ground.

The bufkit at kpdk has it at 7.1" sn when I last looked.  For what that's worth. 

KPDK is still some 16-18 miles south of me, though, and over the ridge.  I have often wished we had a station a bit more central to north GA, there's nothing between KPDK and KBRA/KCHA and that's a lot of pretty fairly populated land between those three.

Mr. Chill, as long as it happens on a weekend, I say shut it ALL down.  Jan 2011 was great for that reason, it happened on a Sunday and so we were all home (for days, heh).  I only get unhappy about it when kids are on buses at 3am because nobody here ever wants to close a school or business on a weekday. :)

Try wunderground there are plenty

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3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

 

 

Thanks for posting Yokel! Would be a great hike up the Blue Wall Tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

That's our thinking. The escarpment is gonna ramp up and hold onto moisture more than other areas across SW NC. I think the max spot will be near Hogback and Lake Toxaway. This is our call for the event... 

1.5.17 SNOWCAST MAP_3.png

Looks good to me. I have a gut feeling that most of these areas will pan out on the high end of those estimates.

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14 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope?

Hard to say, but when it doubt, go warm as Cold Rain would say.  The one thing with this setup is that the 850 low isn't strong...it gets a little stronger as it treks east.  Also, the 850 trough is positive tilt so there's not a ton of warmth at 850 screaming in from the SE, but the tight gradient does setup.  Again I like 2-4 sleet/snow on south side, 3-6 snow and sleet on north side of CLT

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2 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

Try wunderground there are plenty

Yeh I mean official stations, that are logged in the historical records with fairly complete data.  It's actually quite difficult to find detailed snow records for this area, b/c GA doesn't have a university compiling those really great reports with p-type/amt maps like NC has, and there's only one official station north of ATL metro and it's way up in Blairsville near the state line.  There's some basic temp data and stuff for the Cherokee airport station but they don't keep good p-type/amt records, just basic unattended personal weather station type data.

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