Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Which works into the biases of each of these models. UKMET tends to amplify, but has been consistent. GFS has always been known as the suppressor, following the footsteps of its predecessor, the MRF. UKMET is a straight up Miller A that'll change E NC, SC, GA from snow to rain as it phases over the the SE and WAA draws up. But big, big, for the western areas. Yeah those tend to be huge hits for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Bhs1975 said: You near the mtns? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk In the mountains. In Haywood county to be exact at around 3500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 12Z 00Z run Interesting, usually it's quite inconsistent. Of course if they ran it 4x per day it could have easily been suppressed at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 UK would be perfect for here in Danville VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you use the "NavGEM rule" based on its 12Z run it would most definitely indicate the GFS/Euro are slightly too far south and east for places like AL/GA and potentially WAY too south and east for eastern SC/NC/VA. The UKIE could be onto something for sure if you use the typical NavGEM tendency. Just saw that...similar to the CMC with track. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We talking zero degree? In the northern mountains, yes. Probably for anyone your elevation and above. Lower single digits for most of the Piedmont for lows. 15 degrees at CLT on Sunday at 7PM. Stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wow said: Which works into the biases of each of these models. UKMET tends to amplify, but has been consistent. GFS has always been known as the suppressor, following the footsteps of its predecessor, the MRF. UKMET is a straight up Miller A that'll change E NC, SC, GA from snow to rain as it phases over the the SE and WAA draws up. But big, big, for the western areas. That's it, and when you blend the models and their known bias and the way the setup has evolved in the models it all screams text book decent to large snowfall for parts of GA/SC and most of NC.....sweating ever run is pointless everything is right where we want it, folks just got to let it play out without freaking out every run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ..sweating ever run is pointless everything is right where we want it, folks just got to let it play out without freaking out every run...... Best words yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: In the northern mountains, yes. Probably for anyone your elevation and above. Lower single digits for most of the Piedmont for lows. 15 degrees at CLT on Sunday at 7PM. Stuff like that. Still impressive for the deep south especially if there is snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This doesn't look to be trending far enough north for my climo. So I hope you guys get a nice snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I don't know, when you have a collection over a lifetime of winter storm fails, I see no issues with sweating over every single run....it's part of the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know, when you have a collection over a lifetime of winter storm fails, I see no issues with sweating over every single run....it's part of the deal Bingo. Everyone should sweat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know, when you have a collection over a lifetime of winter storm fails, I see no issues with sweating over every single run....it's part of the deal Exactly! I'll figure every way to downslope possible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I've honestly never seen so many " Northern/Mid Atlantic forecasters like DT, JB and Ryan Maue, mention a southern snow!!? Use to them showing every way they can score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't know, when you have a collection over a lifetime of winter storm fails, I see no issues with sweating over every single run....it's part of the deal Ha, if we're crazy enough to be on the weather boards, certainly we're crazy enough to sweat every run. Kinda goes hand in hand right? 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Dang it, KOD. DT mentions a southern storm. Nah, maybe he brings the mojo. If EURO holds serve or better I'll be felling pretty good for clt. Still worried last run didn't give with the ensembles. I always want EURO on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NW wave is stronger at 24 compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like slightly lower heights on the pacific wave at hour 24 on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Ha, if we're crazy enough to be on the weather boards, certainly we're crazy enough to sweat every run. Kinda goes hand in hand right? Dang it, KOD. DT mentions a southern storm. Nah, maybe he brings the mojo. If EURO holds serve or better I'll be felling pretty good for clt. Still worried last run didn't give with the ensembles. I always want EURO on my side. Agreed.... If we can get a consensus from the Euro/GFS/Canadian/UKmet by the 0z runs tonight, then we can just argue about amounts. That would be kind of nice actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: NW wave is stronger at 24 compared to 0z 3mb stronger and maybe 200-300 miles N/W of where it was yesterday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The Euro at 48, a tad faster with the wave in the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, John1122 said: 3mb stronger and maybe 200-300 miles N/W of where it was yesterday at 12z. The SW is being sampled, better data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 54 there's a tad more interaction between NS and Pac wave. Pac wave is ever so slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks nearly identical to UKMET so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 63 same differences apply but it's close to previous run....comes down to whether it can round the bend and amplify into the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 0z Euro had let go of the low at hour 84...let's see what 12z does in a min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 More strung out and positively tilted at 72- not a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I think it's going to be a good run overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, griteater said: I think it's going to be a good run overall Looks lock step with 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: More strung out and positively tilted at 72- not a good sign? 1 minute ago, griteater said: I think it's going to be a good run overall Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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