Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?model=NAM&runtime=00&hour=24&coords=41.37%2C-73.48&id=&parcel=ml&weather=severe&submit=Generate+New+Sounding&sector=US&level=700&product=spd

 

Yeah go for it, they definitely should see something good. I would take a trip to Norfolk if I had the time.

I like Pivotal Weather just click on a model map for a sounding

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I like Pivotal Weather just click on a model map for a sounding

Same applies to cod.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Something to be wary of with the clown maps is how they determine snow. It could pound at 34, but if the algorithm says no snow over 32, the clown map and reality could be pretty far off.

But I'm in total agreement on the gradient. We could literally go from no deadline to warning in a few miles.

Oh yeah. You know my feelings on clown maps in general. The RGEM one though does allow snow over 32 at the surface just for the record. 

What an awful forecast for MHT-ASH-ORH. That's some decent population where monster bust potential is quite high. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep and why Kevin might do a lot better shown. Those soundings with 1500 ft of 33 34 with huge VVS are the surprise spots. 

I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Not all of us. 

Your good for a decent thump. 

 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah. You know my feelings on clown maps in general. The RGEM one though does allow snow over 32 at the surface just for the record. 

What an awful forecast for MHT-ASH-ORH. That's some decent population where monster bust potential is quite high. 

Yeah it's important to know how the sausage is made, even if it isn't pretty.

The forecast in that corridor is truly like an all or nothing. Either a run of the mill storm or potentially crippling with heavy, wet paste. If you told me MHT got 3" or 13" I wouldn't be surprised.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

OF course i'll be Waiting up on EURO 

Working in ASH 

GF going to some awful concert in MHT tomm nite. Me thinks a hotel in MHT is a possibility. 

 

 

AS now cast as they can be for S NH

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean there is a reason we call them clown maps. A shallow layer of warmth at the surface will easily be overcome in strong lift. It really isn't a super warm system in the mid levels, especially as that H5 low dives in. 

That's what's been interesting with this system, only a minority of outliers have suggested any type of mid-level torch, otherwise fate is mostly decided by how rapid the deepening cyclogenesis is in flipping boundary areas from RA to SN+ 

There are going to be some surprises for the uninformed. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's what's been interesting with this system, only a minority of outliers have suggested any type of mid-level torch, otherwise fate is mostly decided by how rapid the deepening cyclogenesis is in flipping boundary areas from RA to SN+ 

There are going to be some surprises for the uninformed. 

And it makes the forecast much tougher. It's what models do the worst. 

So oddly a mid level torch might be a more confident forecast at this point. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

And it makes the forecast much tougher. It's what models do the worst. 

So oddly a mid level torch might be a more confident forecast at this point. 

It's what I'm used to resigning my fate to when consistently shown by models.  Lack of ml torch has been what's kept me confident of warning snows here since tuesday.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Don't envy any NE mets tonight.

[Ginx snewx]

Get under this banding and it's 2 To 4 per hour stuff

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Get under this banding and it's 2 To 4 per hour stuff

Naked snow angels in +TSSN

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Same applies to cod.

lol im an idiot. got it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol im an idiot. got it.

No, actually you are one of the most informed posters on the board.   ;  )

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't envy any NE mets tonight.

yea, these quick hitting explosive miller Bs are always tough. just cant broad brush impact for the edges, like it pounds or it doesnt. 

[nzucker]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't envy any NE mets tonight.

I would still go pretty conservative for places like ORH...There are a lot of red flags...antecedent airmass, possible late development, dryslots if it comes west. I think I'd go 2-4" in ORH and 6-8" in MHT. Looks like a good NH storm from the mid level track.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro def east and more tame with things.

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I would still go pretty conservative for places like ORH...There are a lot of red flags...antecedent airmass, possible late development, dryslots if it comes west. I think I'd go 2-4" in ORH and 6-8" in MHT. Looks like a good NH storm from the mid level track.

With Euro staying the course tonight I'm confident with ORH to hang in the 6+ camp.  Book it.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

No, actually you are one of the most informed posters on the board.   ;  )

ha, thx but credit is due to those who truly have spent a lifetime within the physics of it all. this place is great to learn, cheer, laugh, and cry...sometimes all in one cycle of model runs.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

With Euro staying the course tonight I'm confident with ORH to hang in the 6+ camp.  Book it.  

I'm def not that confident, lol...but the biggest question for me is the marginal warm punch and if it is overcome by UVVs. I still don't like how the Euro is kind of weak until late in the game...I would like to see an earlier strengthening like the RGEM/NAM....but I guess we will just be relegated to nowcasting this sucker....oh well.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

interesting because at first glance looks like the good ole convection shunting east gets it to somewhat struggle wrapping up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final call:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[jbenedet]

Looks like the rgem is all by itself now. All guidance takes the system from CC to east of Portland, ME.

This will result in higher accums in SE NH.

[Damage In Tolland]

Last 2 runs of the RGEM put CT back in the game.

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM3K ..Just hoping for a couple inches ..We;ll see what happens..ORH north this is gonna be awesome. Enjoy ! Wish we lived there.

[moneypitmike]

All the NAM models (perhaps not the 3k) have introduced rain through essentially all of Massachusetts for a time lowering totals even through  GC and northern ORH where they had been solid for multiple runs.  Nowcast time, I guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

All the NAM models (perhaps not the 3k) have introduced rain through essentially all of Massachusetts for a time lowering totals even through  GC and northern ORH where they had been solid for multiple runs.  Nowcast time, I guess.

Very difficult to go against the meso models this close in. With explosive storms..they should handle this better,...but who knows

[moneypitmike]

BOX has trimmed the amounts in their warning to 5-10".  The reduction is reflected in their probability maps. 

 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very difficult to go against the meso models this close in. With explosive storms..they should handle this better,...but who knows

 

That is my inclination which is why I'm bummed to see them now dropping rain even through GC.  I had not expected that to change in the final 6-12 hours before the start of the event.

As I was looking at the HRRR, I was suddenly thinking how great it would be to have Messenger here to play-by-play radar trends and unfolding HRRR/RAP models..