Modfan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Better for a lot of the region. Kevin through Ray and close to BOS. Is this what Will was eluding to earlier in the week that S Worc County, NW RI, NE CT could be an area to bust high if this bombs out earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wife with mini me in NJ today, me thinks this weenie takes a drive to Tawyb or DITs local gentlmens club. Lol. Bringing her to the Blue? Unless that's her thing.. I'd lean strongly no. Just have to see what happens today. Hopefully these trends are real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Modfan said: Is this what Will was eluding to earlier in the week that S Worc County, NW RI, NE CT could be an area to bust high it this bombs out earlier? Yes. The models started to do that a few days ago, then backed off from 18z Tuesday through about 18z yesterday. They held steady and then the mesos started to develop sooner again with a more notable trend starting 6z last night. This isn't about cold, it's about how fast it develops because that will help dynamically cool things. All you can do is communicate the issues with all you guys and then watch what happens. However, if you know the situation and have awareness...you can act quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 dang, even dxr is close to big chutes between hr 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Almost 2" of qpf here on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Bringing her to the Blue? Unless that's her thing.. I'd lean strongly no. Just have to see what happens today. Hopefully these trends are real lol no no. im solo today so thinking of using my free time wisely..ya know, chasing big aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 looking at WV imagery/loop .. it almost appears there 'should be' at least a tick or two adjustment east based upon fluid mechanics - perhaps the 'hydrostatic' aspect alone should force that as a later correction. But that's just eye-balling the wave imagery - I haven't see enough other data sources to really corroborate that. but I almost wonder if getting in tight and close to this thing is allowing these quick cycle models to "see" the cold in the boundary layer better. In any case, this really is a top tier grade-A pain in the ass 'needle-threader.' You gotta understand ...with ANY semblance of blocking in the lower troposphere - hell, I'd even take a rotted polar high - this would be a slam dunk blue thump ending as dust, because the mid level jet mechanics/highest velocity core is modeled to stay SE of RI... WARM air does not cross west across the railroad tracks. that ending facet alone ...I keep coming back to that. It may rain in this, obnoxiously far inland ...it may not, but, getting the warm air aloft to move into ASH (even) with 110 knts scream by to the SE by 150 miles is going to be a neat physical trick - I just i dunno i think the biggest limitation in this could be duration more than anything else for people NW of ... say Oxford Cape ANN... folks SE of that line will probably end up in spin outs when the road crews inevitably wait for the temperature to actually be freezing before they lay down a bumper saving layer of salt and sand.. This system as pure and simply an ass hauler! And where it does snow NW of that line, again... rate of closing 850 to 700 mb depths/deepening at those levels will probably the biggest factors. I kind of see the radar p-type products slamming to a stop around that line tipping back to N.CT with occasional flips blipping and then blue takes over in the last 2 to 4 hours or something. as for NH and central NE, ...more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Kevin, Just want to touch back to what you said about cut and dry- you're right. I meant for coast and areas south of pike it looks unlikely that this will be an impact event. You might score a few inches, but we were talking about much higher amounts a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 A place like Cape Ann and down to Ray should be excited right now. We knew ORH would see snow but that area is riding the line hard. The combination of wind and flip to snow on Cape Ann could be ridiculous. If it looks like it will verify, you can bet my ass will be driving up there later on this evening. Who wants to meet up? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Almost 2" of qpf here on the nam. 20+ if you figure normal ratios to start low ratios in the middle and high ratio can at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Kevin, Just want to touch back to what you said about cut and dry- you're right. I meant for coast and areas south of pike it looks unlikely that this will be an impact event. You might score a few inches, but we were talking about much higher amounts a day or two ago. I never expected more than 4-8" here.. even days ago. I knew was too far south for good stuff. I'll be happy with whatever falls today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 From BOX at 7am today: The main story for tonight, however, will be the wind. Have converted the High Wind Watch for northeastern MA to a Wind Advisory and expanded it to include all of eastern and central MA and RI. As the low deepens from 990 to 970 mb by 1 AM Fri in eastern Maine, west-southwest to west-northwest winds will gust to 40-55 mph across the Advisory area. The strongest winds are expected in the 10 PM to 3 AM time frame. The highest gusts will be in northeast MA, especially over Cape Ann. It is possible that a High Wind Warning may be needed in case wind gusts of 60+ mph become likely. Even with 50 to 55 mph gusts from Boston through the north shore, there could be several trees, tree limbs, and wires downed, causing some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I never expected more than 4-8" here.. even days ago. I knew was too far south for good stuff. I'll be happy with whatever falls today I thought I saw something about 6" on FB/twitter/here. I'm probably wrong. I hope we both end up with some snow tonight. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 If HRRRGW is correct (and oh how we want it to be) what time would you guys expect the flip to snow to happen in BOS metro. Want to make sure I have a good seat ready to enjoy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Damn, I guess rain is beneficial for the grass, oh yeah that is right, the grass isn't even growing any more this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: 20+ if you figure normal ratios to start low ratios in the middle and high ratio can at the end 4:1 ratios and he gets 8" of sludge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 4:1 ratios and he gets 8" of sludge Nah it's cold up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I thought I saw something about 6" on FB/twitter/here. I'm probably wrong. I hope we both end up with some snow tonight. Cheers Well that falls in my 4-8" range that I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 HRRR continues to get better. That is a hellacious ending in ern MA verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13z HRRR has officially gone Ginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 FWIW--the snow's arrived here about an hour earlier than the HRRR simulated radar has it. Quickly moderate with a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 8pm-midnight is an absolute shellacking right to BOS on the latest HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 13z HRRR tracks the low over the elbow into BHB, That is quite a few tics to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We will probably see thunderstorms, man I wish that was thunder snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? It is when it's all you've got. SN, 26* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 We get backend precip, I hope that is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? Well the trend is there, but lets see a few more runs show this. I'd watch the RAP and HRRR. However The NAM has also shown a faster development. I think your spot is in a good area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wife with mini me in NJ today, me thinks this weenie takes a drive to Tawyb or DITs local gentlmens club. unfortunately there are no "gentlemens clubs" in winsted, but in the dirty water, you got Mr.Happys...but not gonna be too great for Waterbury me thinks...also btw, it's snowing at a good clip, dusted up already...Ill take a faster deepening, and stick with my 4" I've been calling for imby all along and hope i bust high.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Is it good to put all our weight into the HRRR? Is that what is normally done so close to an event? I find it to change quite a bit from run to run and usually am not a big fan of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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