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Thursday Thumper or Thirst-Quencher

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RGEM looked a little better for the interior SNE spots walking the line...still a pretty aggressive inland track but it's really winding it up rapidly so it is compact and that gradient produces snow pretty close to the track.

I'm still wondering why the mesos want to track this from LI up over Boston whereas the globals want to take it from LI to CC and then Portland ME.  I suspect the mesos are keying in on the deep convection (LHR) and are sensing that the best location for pressure falls is collocated with that area, despite the best UL synoptic region for pressure falls being further east. Personally I'm with the globals based on how the Upper levels evolve.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm still wondering why the mesos want to track this from LI up over Boston whereas the globals want to take it from LI to CC and then Portland ME.  I suspect the mesos are keying in on the deep convection (LHR) and are sensing that the best location for pressure falls is collocated with that area, despite the best UL synoptic region for pressure falls being further east. Personally I'm with the globals based on how the Upper levels evolve.

Nevermind I just saw the 18z RGEM. That's about as clear a sign as ever that the mesos were wrong and the globals (GFS UKIE and Euro) were right. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I went from 2" to 8", I would beg to differ

 

 

Ha I'm just joking I wasn't even through the full run.

Just love the its better, no its not, oh my god i'm screwed, i'm golden! type banter... lol its a trip in a lead up to a storm.  Everyone seems like they are on edge a little or something too.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I'm just joking I wasn't even through the full run.

Just love the its better, no its not, oh my god i'm screwed, i'm golden! type banter... lol its a trip in a lead up to a storm.  Everyone seems like they are on edge a little or something too.

I'm right on the chalk here.......lol

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a really tight gradient near ORH on the RGEM....what a tough forecast....the gradient will probably end up even tighter than the snow algorithm shows...thebgigest question is how far SE or NW this gradient ends up in reality.

 

 

rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

 

Its a brutal call around here to Manchester too. Part of me wants to say the gradient will be a little south of were its modeled given the dynamics, but I have seen how we can easily torch the low levels strong low level easterly flow

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
NW MA  has been consistently 6-10"  for days now.


Indeed.

Short of interior ME/NH, our area has been steadfast in a storm that has been very very difficult to forecast. I'm content.

Skied in charlemont several times this week, it's amazing how much snow they've lost. They NEED this.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Curious for a METs explaination of what's with the duel low pressure centers that the 18z RGEM has and the EURO showed that to an extent as well with a closed isobar in SNE.

Is that ocean low following that convection?  It looks like from the QPF there'd be convective processes out there?

The RGEM has the two lower pressures at 30 hours...one over SNE and another way out over the ocean.

1.png

 

But then at 33 hours the northern one has taken over tracking close to the NH/ME coastline. 

2.png

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Curious for a METs explaination of what's with the duel low pressure centers that the 18z RGEM has and the EURO showed that to an extent as well with a closed isobar in SNE.

Is that ocean low following that convection?  It looks like from the QPF there'd be convective processes out there?

The RGEM has the two lower pressures at 30 hours...one over SNE and another way out over the ocean.

1.png

 

But then at 33 hours the northern one has taken over tracking close to the NH/ME coastline. 

2.png

Looks like what the Euro did with developing an LP over the convection offshore that nudged the track it to the east

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 

Its a brutal call around here to Manchester too. Part of me wants to say the gradient will be a little south of were its modeled given the dynamics, but I have seen how we can easily torch the low levels strong low level easterly flow

When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain.

So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I look at the soundings, you can easily see how big lift could make it a paste bomb...some of those frames where the 850 0C line is trying to intrude past ORH-ASH, the skew-T shows like basically isothermal with maybe +1 at 900-925mb. There's no obvious smoking gun warm layer of like 3-4C or something that makes it an easy call for rain.

So yeah, it's going to be a brutal forecast for that ORH-ASH-MHT zone. You could easily see 1-2 inches of slush getting washed away if things break wrong but could also see double digits if things break right. The hard part, is I'm not sure how much of a intermediate zone there is going to be...like it's easy to say "we'll lets just forecast 4-6" as a safe play"....that might be the most unlikely amount. If it snows enough to reach 5 or 6", it's probably going to blow past that amount in a blue bomb scenario. Maybe a really narrow zone goes to town, then mixes/flips, and then ends as a quick burst to get that 5" amount...but I feel like it's either going to be 8"+ or 2" or less. Maybe that will change or become a bit clearer in the final cycle or two here, but man, not easy.

you got my attention, this is one heck of a horse race if you will..... thank you for your feedback

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