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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might mix them over due to their longitude, but a good thump there too I think. Anyways, details are meaningless right now.

As in any location, sometimes you win sometimes you lose.

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was 7"+ there, Not that it matters much at this point

 

10 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

What a weenie run for the interior on the euro. Wow

Promising.....

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Doesn't matter at all... at all... but at this time all we have is model fantasy to live by for the next week or so, ha.

We dream about 969mb lows passing just east of Portland into the mid-coast and then up to CAR.



You guys have pretty much been living in a dream scenario all winter so far, Why change it now.
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ono

ono

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, dryslot said:


They are making up for last winter in a big way

The northern Green mts are doing pretty well- the snowpack is above average, but for snowfall- it seems like it's slightly above average?  A few high-QPF events that were upslope driven as PF/J.Spin noted really helped out the snowpack.  Average snowfall through New Years day is something around 100-105" at Stowe/Smuggs.  So an active pattern in the next week could bump it up nicely- even if another foot fell, that would be just 25% above average, and still within ~1 S.D. (just guessing at this point)- so a "high normal" so far, perhaps? Though really good given several bummer Decembers recently.

 

Ran the numbers back a week or so ago (didn't clean the data very well, but roughed in- taken with a grain of salt), and the snowpack depth was somewhere in the 85th percentile for ~62 years of records.  But that's probably dropped to around 75th percentile or so (stake was at 40-42" for a few days- which was around a month ahead of average for that depth).  Working on putting together a clean dataset for Mansfield snow/temperature data to play around with as a fun coding project. How it will turn out- who knows.

 

so far this has been a good year for snow (and great for snowpack) A great start- no complains, yet  it's not exactly extraordinary.  Here in Burlington/Champlain valley- temperatures been seasonal to mild lately with modest snow- maybe just average (or even slightly below at this point). Still, much much better than last year.  

Gonna hit up the mountains tomorrow to check out the woods... should be fun to see how its gone up high (first time this year getting above 2500'- too busy!)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, dryslot said:


They are making up for last winter in a big way

This is more like how it should be, lol.  Last winter was record bad, and we've been in the shadows in recent seasons.  Like the Stake depth of 38" after the rain is still the max depth of all of last season.  But it's no where near record high.  

Whenever we have what we think of a more normal season it does snow almost every day...it's just been a string of 80s type winters it seems for the mountains.  Go back like 4 years and you get more into the stuff we were used to where it snows a trace or more on 21+ days of a month.  The days of drunk SnowNH rants at 3am about the snow in northern Vermont lol.  

 

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is more like how it should be, lol.  Last winter was record bad, and we've been in the shadows in recent seasons.  Like the Stake depth of 38" after the rain is still the max depth of all of last season.  But it's no where near record high.  

Whenever we have what we think of a more normal season it does snow almost every day...it's just been a string of 80s type winters it seems for the mountains.  Go back like 4 years and you get more into the stuff we were used to where it snows a trace or more on 21+ days of a month.  The days of drunk SnowNH rants at 3am about the snow in northern Vermont lol.  

 

How much snow today?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, ono said:

The northern Green mts are doing pretty well- the snowpack is above average, but for snowfall- it seems like it's slightly above average?  A few high-QPF events that were upslope driven as PF/J.Spin noted really helped out the snowpack.  Average snowfall through New Years day is something around 100-105" at Stowe/Smuggs.  So an active pattern in the next week could bump it up nicely- even if another foot fell, that would be just 25% above average, and still within ~1 S.D. (just guessing at this point)- so a "high normal" so far, perhaps? Though really good given several bummer Decembers recently.

 

Ran the numbers back a week or so ago (didn't clean the data very well, but roughed in- taken with a grain of salt), and the snowpack depth was somewhere in the 85th percentile for ~62 years of records.  But that's probably dropped to around 75th percentile or so (stake was at 40-42" for a few days- which was around a month ahead of average for that depth).  Working on putting together a clean dataset for Mansfield snow/temperature data to play around with as a fun coding project. How it will turn out- who knows.

 

so far this has been a good year for snow (and great for snowpack) A great start- no complains, yet  it's not exactly extraordinary.  Here in Burlington/Champlain valley- temperatures been seasonal to mild lately with modest snow- maybe just average (or even slightly below at this point). Still, much much better than last year.  

Gonna hit up the mountains tomorrow to check out the woods... should be fun to see how its gone up high (first time this year getting above 2500'- too busy!)

Yeah good summary...it's solid and feels awesome after the past several winters to have a more normal snow rate.  Mountains have definitely done better than the valleys but even relative to normal it may not be that much different, I don't know.

The COOP averages 1-2.2" of snow PER DAY through the winter and that's a place that has decent under-catch.  So normal is still netting 12-18" a week.  

This week we are below normal snow, after three weeks above normal so it's starting to normalize again.  Just remember it's supposed to snow 1.5" or so a day on average and that's a good place to base expectations on.  And the ski towns should land in the 24-36" per month range.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

We had a trace of snow before about 0.5" of Grinchy, bah humbug rain and 34° F earlier. The NAM was right on with the thermals and QPF around here. After a couple of recent wins by the RGEM, it dropped the ball on today's event as it verified warmer than the RGEM had it. 2 degrees colder and this would've been 3-5" of wet snow. I wish there was a model that you could always trust, but, alas, that's not the case. One model could be right on with one event only to vomit all over itself on the next.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro continues the snowy Thursday for most folks 

Not like it was though--seems weaker and a little delayed.  But, that may be a timing of the modeled intervals.

Meanwhile, CMC provides rain for most and a pretty meager snow event for those getting snow (far NW Mass into central/northern NE). 

GYX is not very bullish: 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chance of high impact wx: Low.

 

 

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