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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted

Oh for heaven's sake, get in the spirit and pretend. 12-18 for Boston north and west/southwest with a little candy for the Cape and Islands at the end. It's Christmas after all. LOL

Well, Merry Christmas (Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, etc.). Looking forward to whatever comes our way. Let's hope it's white and deep.

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SnowHole413

SnowHole413

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Oh for heaven's sake, get in the spirit and pretend. 12-18 for Boston north and west/southwest with a little candy for the Cape and Islands at the end. It's Christmas after all. LOL

Well, Merry Christmas (Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, etc.). Looking forward to whatever comes our way. Let's hope it's white and deep.

18+ berks and SVT:weenie:

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

He's like this constantly....One day he's locking in winter, the next he's canceling most of January and Feb is warm too. 

He's already on record for a fast end to winter, so if you punt the rest of December and first week of January that mean you all only have 6 weeks or so of winter left if you're lucky. Morch on!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think he's treating it like a no-hitter. Just not talking about it, sitting down the end of the bench. 

 

When he posts, he isn't hearing any noise around him right now...it's like when the pitcher throwing the no-hitter blocks out all the fan noise after a certain point.

Completely in the zone.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

When he posts, he isn't hearing any noise around him right now...it's like when the pitcher throwing the no-hitter blocks out all the fan noise after a certain point.

Completely in the zone.

 

:lol: 

Thats awesome. No one is talking to him anymore. He's by himself.. all alone. Just him and his keyboard 

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice EPS run. A tick east with EPO ridging. 

I don't see much nice about it. You still have warmth trying to come in at the end of the run. I mean yes there is a epo ridge and a nao ridge as well. Ocean ridges many mets are calling them over North America. Just don't see anything stopping that west track. As well as the negative PNA seems to be hurting us with these up and down's in temperature.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I don't see much nice about it. You still have warmth trying to come in at the end of the run. 

They look pretty good to me...nice EPO ridge and even some transient N ATL ridging at times. But that source region is gonna stay really cold.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Well that is good news. But how is it going to stop the cutters?. It would be nice to get some coastals. 

It's not a pattern that "stops cutters"...it's a pattern that gives us chances, and cutters are one of the bullets to dodge. Sometimes a transient N ATL ridge can prevent a cutter, but I wouldn't put my eggs in that basket...I'm mostly happy to see the very good EPO ridging which keeps the northern tier cold.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not a pattern that "stops cutters"...it's a pattern that gives us chances, and cutters are one of the bullets to dodge. Sometimes a transient N ATL ridge can prevent a cutter, but I wouldn't put my eggs in that basket...I'm mostly happy to see the very good EPO ridging which keeps the northern tier cold.

I mean we could have +EPO/-PNA and Atlantic ridging, and any coastal would probably still rain. So at least our cold source region will actually be cold.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean we could have +EPO/-PNA and Atlantic ridging, and any coastal would probably still rain. So at least our cold source region will actually be cold.

 

Yeah the only real defense against cutters is a huge western -NAO block.....OR....a PNA ridge that is far enough east, kind of like we saw in 2015. We had a perfectly placed western ridge that had storms either whiffing (or grazing us as late bloomers) to the east or nailing us head-on...and even then we got lucky with the 2/7-2/9 event when everything relaxed for a week with a perfect overrunning setup on a well-timed Scooter high. No wonder the jackpot was Scooter to Eastport, Maine with that western ridge placement.

 

But PNA ridges aren't usually stationary or pseudo stationary for as long as the 2015 one was...that was kind of a perfect storm of events where that ridge kept reloading in the right spot. Much easier to get a -NAO block to rot in place like 1969 or 1978.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well ... for those of us not cow-tied to the EPS ... the GEFs derivatives have gotten hugely better for winter enthusiasts...

So perhaps that backs us into saying both sides of the ocean appear to be arriving to a similar theme.

Either way, the operational GFS ...Jesus is that model dry humping the -EPO idea now.  That really looks like a prelude to the huge February 2015 ... but, there is one equally huge difference.

The heights in the deep south/sub-tropical band are still to f'n high man.  That giant buzz-saw vortex that sets up near JB with all those contours around it is good for cold, but you got to trust me; that is a horrible set up if you're holding out for the big ticket production.  

These super high gradient, deep PV flow regimes (where heights between Brownsville and Miami can't descend convincingly beneath 582 dm without winds hauling ass at 70 kts) are good for one of two results: cold and dry, or cold and nickle-dime storm systems.  

Which frankly... I'm an old man now and own property?  I don't need 20 inch society impact events to get the point across. I love winter and good expression of it.. but I'd rather establish a snow pack based upon multiple 5-9"ers with still starlet chill in between.  

But we dream...

In the meantime, I like the -WPO and -EPO ... those two together mark more of an AB Pacific phase and is quality when they are anchored over the larger scope. 

By the way... Merry christmas

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

January 2014 shows you both how the -EPO can be pressing, and force storms south, and also how it allows for raging cutters. Just have to deal with it. 

You just caused me to have a seizure.  January 2014 was as bad as it gets.

That was the month of Tamarack and PF getting more inches of rain than snow for like 3 weeks straight.  While Philly has like 4 Advisory/warning snows lol.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You just caused me to have a seizure.  January 2014 was as bad as it gets.

That was the month of Tamarack and PF getting more inches of rain than snow for like 3 weeks straight.  While Philly has like 4 Advisory/warning snows lol.

It's all fun n games until someone seizures out.

Check your PM. 

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
Just frustrated usually up here in Nova Scotia Canada we are known for our coastal storms in the winter not for cutters. 


We get both. Don't sweat the small details. The mets are right. We have to have cold air lurking close by then we get chances. Sometimes you'll see Boston get nailed by a storm that hooks into Maine and gives us rain, then a day or two later another system forms but the trough is further east and we get nailed. There is enough for everyone.
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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hazey said:


We get both. Don't sweat the small details. The mets are right. We have to have cold air lurking close by then we get chances. Sometimes you'll see Boston get nailed by a storm that hooks into Maine and gives us rain, then a day or two later another system forms but the trough is further east and we get nailed. There is enough for everyone.

It's not ideal for us but i think we can do okay.  Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the weather staying exactly as it has been since we've been cashing in.  I'd like to see lower heights near Atlantic Canada.  Might be stormy, but still riding a line. 

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
It's not ideal for us but i think we can do okay.  Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing the weather staying exactly as it has been since we've been cashing in.  I'd like to see lower heights near Atlantic Canada.  Might be stormy, but still riding a line. 


Yeah you're doing ok out there. How is the latest storm playing out? Must have another 6"+ in the bank. White Christmas assured at least.
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