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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah the risk is cutters with the trough well to our west over the next couple of weeks. But it's a good pattern to build the snow in Canada then you have the chance of a slow successive push east of colder air as you head into December. Hopefully people can keep the ants in their pants in check. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the risk is cutters with the trough well to our west over the next couple of weeks. But it's a good pattern to build the snow in Canada then you have the chance of a slow successive push east of colder air as you head into December. Hopefully people can keep the ants in their pants in check. 

Thing is centered over the west coast.  Tough to get a wintry pattern out of that look. LOL.

Start developing that natural baroclinic zone between snowpack/non-snowpack. 

This has just looked like the natural progression into the cold season and some are jumpy.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still looks like a burst of snow TGiving morning.

 

However.. we lost the weekend snows as everything shifted way north on overnight runs

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. I think may get a burst of light snow. However this weekend looks more for Maine. It's still early, but that's how it looks for now. 

You can see how this next 7 days or so can be one that has people lining the Tobin when they don't see a foot of snow pack built up. But the 00z model runs show you how we can go weak, wet, and warm and not see much out of it.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yup--Rochester is a great spot in the interior northeast.

LMAO...right!!  Interior Northeast is a VERY generalized statement.

Many think interior SNE when they hear interior Northeast, but as you just pointed out...Western NY state is considered interior Northeast...which is many many miles away from our neck of the woods.  Going to have to be patient...very patient it seems.  But that's usually how this goes in late November going into early December.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Colder run up here on the 12z GFS, Starting to gain a little more traction for the sat-sun time frame, Won't help many to the SE of here, But may make it more of a wintry appeal on the coastal plain in ME and back into Central NH and down towards ORH

The GFS shows how quickly the whole thing can go to town if it breaks right...even back into interior SNE things could still be snowy, but we need a rapid deepening of the ULL like it shows on the GFS...and slightly south would probably benefit everyone not in northern Maine.

It's not a high probability event, but it remains volatile on guidance.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The GFS shows how quickly the whole thing can go to town if it breaks right...even back into interior SNE things could still be snowy, but we need a rapid deepening of the ULL like it shows on the GFS...and slightly south would probably benefit everyone not in northern Maine.

It's not a high probability event, but it remains volatile on guidance.

Shifted south some from 06z but still develops to late for most, Its a potent ULL, Still a long ways out, Just watching to see if it moves more towards cyclogenesis and away from the IVT scenario at this point

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The GFS shows how quickly the whole thing can go to town if it breaks right...even back into interior SNE things could still be snowy, but we need a rapid deepening of the ULL like it shows on the GFS...and slightly south would probably benefit everyone not in northern Maine.

It's not a high probability event, but it remains volatile on guidance.

It's a pretty nice H7 look up here.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Colder run up here on the 12z GFS, Starting to gain a little more traction for the sat-sun time frame, Won't help many to the SE of here, But may make it more of a wintry appeal on the coastal plain in ME and back into Central NH and down towards ORH

 

Yeah--I'm pretty sure GC is a lost cause, but Pit East might do okay if this can continue to trend colder.  As of now, I'm thinking it'll be mostly rain there (not for you)  It'll take a lot of evolution to justify a 4-hour drive.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Yeah--I'm pretty sure GC is a lost cause, but Pit East might do okay if this can continue to trend colder.  As of now, I'm thinking it'll be mostly rain there (not for you)  It'll take a lot of evolution to justify a 4-hour drive.

It may be to far west right now for GC, But if we could crank this up sooner it would not be, Time will tell, But it has my attention

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

what do you think for the SE Dacks?  Its close to a blue bomb on the GFS but I am not buying the QPF its spitting out

I think they'll get some snow out of this, but it's really tough to say how much. Don't see why at least 1000-1500ft or higher can't get snow. However, I honestly have no idea on how much. Still early.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Glad to see some cooling of the GFS, even at this distance.  I've no idea if the Sat event looks anything like Dec. 9-11, 2014, but recent GFS runs have shown near identical temps and qpf to that mess.  We got 1.2" snow on the front followed by 2.5"+ of low-mid 30s RA.  Meanwhile, forests above about 1,800' in W. Maine got shredded by paste or ice. 

My bigger concern is next week, all occupied by our 5-year audit for green certification.  My Monday commute is about 110 miles (home-AUG-BGR) and may have a 160+ follow-up to PQI in the evening.  Would rather not do that in a snowstorm, though once there the audit will proceed as long as the woods roads are plowed sufficient to reach the harvest sites.

 

Will what would wind gusts theoretically look like for a storm with a low pressure of 940mb and a high pressure system of 1035mb?

I once read, [probably on Eastern), that max winds in MPH would approach the low-to-high difference in mb.  Can't remember if that was gusts or steady, probably the former.  Of course, 940 must be 10 mb or more lower than any extratropical system in eastern US history, but who's counting?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Glad to see some cooling of the GFS, even at this distance.  I've no idea if the Sat event looks anything like Dec. 9-11, 2014, but recent GFS runs have shown near identical temps and qpf to that mess.  We got 1.2" snow on the front followed by 2.5"+ of low-mid 30s RA.  Meanwhile, forests above about 1,800' in W. Maine got shredded by paste or ice. 

My bigger concern is next week, all occupied by our 5-year audit for green certification.  My Monday commute is about 110 miles (home-AUG-BGR) and may have a 160+ follow-up to PQI in the evening.  Would rather not do that in a snowstorm, though once there the audit will proceed as long as the woods roads are plowed sufficient to reach the harvest sites.

 

Will what would wind gusts theoretically look like for a storm with a low pressure of 940mb and a high pressure system of 1035mb?

I once read, [probably on Eastern), that max winds in MPH would approach the low-to-high difference in mb.  Can't remember if that was gusts or steady, probably the former.  Of course, 940 must be 10 mb or more lower than any extratropical system in eastern US history, but who's counting?

LOL--records are made to be broken.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Glad to see some cooling of the GFS, even at this distance.  I've no idea if the Sat event looks anything like Dec. 9-11, 2014, but recent GFS runs have shown near identical temps and qpf to that mess.  We got 1.2" snow on the front followed by 2.5"+ of low-mid 30s RA.  Meanwhile, forests above about 1,800' in W. Maine got shredded by paste or ice. 

My bigger concern is next week, all occupied by our 5-year audit for green certification.  My Monday commute is about 110 miles (home-AUG-BGR) and may have a 160+ follow-up to PQI in the evening.  Would rather not do that in a snowstorm, though once there the audit will proceed as long as the woods roads are plowed sufficient to reach the harvest sites.

 

Will what would wind gusts theoretically look like for a storm with a low pressure of 940mb and a high pressure system of 1035mb?

I once read, [probably on Eastern), that max winds in MPH would approach the low-to-high difference in mb.  Can't remember if that was gusts or steady, probably the former.  Of course, 940 must be 10 mb or more lower than any extratropical system in eastern US history, but who's counting?

Have fun, physics is the bomb

http://www.aprweather.com/pages/wind.htm

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Glad to see some cooling of the GFS, even at this distance.  I've no idea if the Sat event looks anything like Dec. 9-11, 2014, but recent GFS runs have shown near identical temps and qpf to that mess.  We got 1.2" snow on the front followed by 2.5"+ of low-mid 30s RA.  Meanwhile, forests above about 1,800' in W. Maine got shredded by paste or ice. 

My bigger concern is next week, all occupied by our 5-year audit for green certification.  My Monday commute is about 110 miles (home-AUG-BGR) and may have a 160+ follow-up to PQI in the evening.  Would rather not do that in a snowstorm, though once there the audit will proceed as long as the woods roads are plowed sufficient to reach the harvest sites.

 

Will what would wind gusts theoretically look like for a storm with a low pressure of 940mb and a high pressure system of 1035mb?

I once read, [probably on Eastern), that max winds in MPH would approach the low-to-high difference in mb.  Can't remember if that was gusts or steady, probably the former.  Of course, 940 must be 10 mb or more lower than any extratropical system in eastern US history, but who's counting?

We had a rule of thumb at DVN that went something like 10 mph in gust for every 4 mb pressure gradient across IA. 

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