USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 The SST pattern from 40N 75W to 40N 68W supports a monster nor'easter with the ton of moisture and available potential energy involved within those SSTs favors someone getting nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm products I looked at have biggest MSLP anomalies off the MA then CC Trough axis is pretty far west...obviously this far out plenty of members will show some sort of miller B type solution...but when working with a marginal airmass, there isn't much room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Trough axis is pretty far west...obviously this far out plenty of members will show some sort of miller B type solution...but when working with a marginal airmass, there isn't much room for error. Yea the problem is so many members that far out always show a weak/OTS solution with little development that the mean can look good while the model is "actually seeing" a cutter. The Thanksgiving storm is starting to look like a lost cause...we lose the cold airmass Wednesday and end up with a moderating pattern and a low tracking well to the north. Could be decent in ski country but rain for BOS/HFD/NYC. IF, BIG IF, the TG storm can deepen and amplify, it may pull down the cold and set up a nice scenario for the 28th event. At that point the -NAO block is stronger w a huge high pressure near Baffin Island. We have some fresh cold incoming and a strengthening block instead of the opposite for TG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 12z ECM really blows up the 28th to 29th threat, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 6 hours ago, nzucker said: 12z ECM really blows up the 28th to 29th threat, wow. Yup..that' the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup..that' the one That's questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's questionable. One should never question anything 8 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 The thanksgivng system probably more of a nuisance system for SNE, although might be more of a bigger deal up north. The s/w is sort of shearewd out and results in a strung out and weak low. The weekend system still is up in the air. You have s/w timing issues due to fast flow (and not knowing which s/w is actually the catalyst) and I don't know if we'll see it buckle enough for good cyclogenesis to our SE. However it will be rather cool, so the airmass seems sufficient for a part of the area. Going forward, it looks active. It finally seems like troughing will push int the SW US and Plains. This will also allow for more cold to penetrate the US, but also a cutter risk here so not all frozen it appears. But, it beats a US blowtorch pattern and money will be in the bank down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Tgiving looks like it starts as snow before going to cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tgiving looks like it starts as snow before going to cold rain 5 pellets as the midlevels saturate and then liquid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The thanksgivng system probably more of a nuisance system for SNE, although might be more of a bigger deal up north. The s/w is sort of shearewd out and results in a strung out and weak low. The weekend system still is up in the air. You have s/w timing issues due to fast flow (and not knowing which s/w is actually the catalyst) and I don't know if we'll see it buckle enough for good cyclogenesis to our SE. However it will be rather cool, so the airmass seems sufficient for a part of the area. Going forward, it looks active. It finally seems like troughing will push int the SW US and Plains. This will also allow for more cold to penetrate the US, but also a cutter risk here so not all frozen it appears. But, it beats a US blowtorch pattern and money will be in the bank down the road. So true! All going according to plan in my book. People forget how early it is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: 5 pellets as the midlevels saturate and then liquid? Looks to be about it. Maybe 10 up by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Looks to be about it. Maybe 10 up by you. Pellets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 hour ago, weathafella said: So true! All going according to plan in my book. People forget how early it is . Yes. It's early so I hope people don't b*tch and moan....but they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 GFS would definitely be a little white on T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 That's a pretty fun/active run of the GFS for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 I'll take what the 12z euro is smoking for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'll take what the 12z euro is smoking for next weekend Great look for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: Great look for Maine. You may want to visit the pit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You may want to visit the pit east The thought was running through my mind as I looked at it. Some earlier development and I can stay at Pit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Snowy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy run The coming pattern is becoming a little clearer on modeling and allowing me to have some insight into the threats. TG storm looks like a lost cause for most, but could be a few inches in ski country. The GFS has an inverted trough in Maine for Black Friday but that could change. The two big windows I see are the Nov 28th coastal, which shows up on both the 12z ECM and GFS. We have a pseudo-NAO block with high heights over Labrador/Hudson Bay and a 50/50 low, the remnants of the TG day stuff. Then, the Nov 30-Dec 1 is a cutter, but it looks to reset the pattern w a PAC ridge/-EPO, which sets the table for a Plains s/w the GFS has developing in NM/CO around 12/3. Still a risk for a cutter though w the broad trough centered to the west. One potential downfall is that the -NAO west/Labrador block that helps cement the 50/50 low for the Nov 28 system becomes an impediment to cold air filtering down later in the Dec 3-5 time frame. With a sub 500dm PV moving into Canada and a big western ridge, we would normally get the cold, but the block redirects the cold to our southwest. That could hurt the Dec 4-5 threat and subsequent events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 The Sat system is intriguing for eastern areas. Maine especially but E MA should watch it. It's got some classic variables for a potent norlun. (And yes, we know Ray isn't interested) The ecmwf actually blew it up into a little coastal which would be a more widespread event...but I'd like to see more consistency on that idea before biting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 I know nobody likes the NOGAPS model, but even with its progressive biases it amplified our 28th System. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Sat system is intriguing for eastern areas. Maine especially but E MA should watch it. It's got some classic variables for a potent norlun. (And yes, we know Ray isn't interested) The ecmwf actually blew it up into a little coastal which would be a more widespread event...but I'd like to see more consistency on that idea before biting As of now you'd think it's 1-3 western SNE with 3-6 as you get out from BOS north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: As of now you'd think it's 1-3 western SNE with 3-6 as you get out from BOS north As of now I'd probably think nothing but snow showers or flurries until we're much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 GSF continues to dampen out the 27-28th coastal storm energy at H5, I would expect future runs to be more favorable for cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Even if some of these threats don't end up wintry, You have to like seeing all the activity being modled going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GSF continues to dampen out the 27-28th coastal storm energy at H5, I would expect future runs to be more favorable for cyclogenesis So it's trending in the wrong direction. Why would future runs be more favorable? I'm confused a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Pretty deep trough in the southwest US in the 11-15 day. Might actually be a few over runners somewhere in the northeast at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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