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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!


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ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

 -- and, 

                  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

(Navigate internally to view the various product/sectors...)

What I find interesting is that the last 24-hours or so worth of operational Euro and GFS are bucking the teleconnector signal from the GEF's derived statistics.  

Maybe that's because Euro doesn't give a rat's azz about the GEFs... Perhaps.  But, that doesn't explain why the GFS is out of sync. Maybe an explanation can be inferred by the fact that this is all a week or more away... 

The NAO and PNA are negative and positive, respectively, and extending over a longer period of time than a mere 2-5 day perturbation in the domain spaces, too. That doesn't lend much confidence to the oper. Euro and GFS's re-bulging the SE ridge late August style.  That couldn't really be more out of phase with regard to the persistent +PNA/-NAO phase states and modalities. 

The short version, ... less confidence in those particular operational models in their latter mid and extended ranges - less so than normal disdain at that. 

Problem is, ...I've seen it written more than once over the years of consuming AFDs purposed to serve both local and national scales, ...that sometimes when the higher resolution/tested operational versions agree, the lesser specialized/resolved ensemble means will start pulling in that direction. 

Possibly. 

1 ... Until I see these teleconnectors reverse the present, and persistent signals re those very important teleconnectors for N/A (particularly where they overlap), I'd say the possibly is there that the oper. versions will collapse the other way just the same. 

2 ... We'll see ... but, the push button interpretive layout off the converged +PNA / -NAO in the CDC/CPC is for western ridge/ eastern trough (+PNAP) pattern.

3 ... Plenty of climate models /roll-forward reanalysis when combining longer duration global cues want an early winter, which .. heh, seems getting that to happen doesn't require a SE ridge with 582 DM heights clear to Buffalo. 

4 ... There's been some strange 'force' that's been making me wrong repetitively as of late - seemingly with a very high correlation coefficience to modulate patterns antithetical but only at precisely the instant I click Submits ... not sure when that cosmic dildo intends to pull out and go f -over some other wide-eyed honest effort, but until those proverbial pumps cease, ...I might have just 86'ed November just the same for merely bringing it up.  However, I "think" I covered the dodgy way out by mentioning the resolution-agreement caveat above :) 

5 ... J/k, woes of weather prediction aside, I am encouraged that November, possible as the 10th nears, gets interesting for cooler departures .. which is a good start for winter enthusiasts for obvious reasons. If it's cryospheric dystopian dreams, getting a colder canvas is just one step closer to realizing one's coveted nightmare.   

 

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actually ...there is another angle here.

the Pacific isn't really interested in any of this, with the (WPO+EPO)/2 = not cold from those respective ensemble -derivatives.  

not enough recurvers over the western Pac?   MJO not being any more precisely wrong in wave space ... ?   all good questions and it may be that the physical presence of these factors is contributory to the operational runs going out of their way to line up all winter weather enthusiasts, and then running down the length of the ranks with a face smacker -

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53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean 1987?

I recall that storm vividly in Vernon. 8 inches of paste, wind, tree damage ,  no school.  There was supposed to be another storm 2 days later. They were calling for 6-12". I was hauling wood up from woodpile to deck in deep snow in heavy zrdz.  Woke up next morning to green grass and a few snow piles. Crestfallen as a promised snowstorm turned into a screaming soueaster.

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean 1987?

 

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

1986 had some good events too. Esp over the interior. 

In 86 & 87 we had back to back years with snowfall on Veterans Day.  In 1986 I only had 4.5" but later in the month on 18th/19th I had 12.1" which gave me 16.6" on the month.  In 1987 I picked up 9.1" between the 10th and 12th but that puts it behind 2002 & 2012.

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That Veteran's Day 87 dropped a foot here. 

I'd have to look at what happened with that one because I my record records 1.1" on the 10th, 4.5" on the 11th and 3.5" on the 12th.  Those would have been the snow that feel between 7a the previous day and 7a the day that it was recorded.  I remember thinking that it was neat that it had snowed on back to back Veterans Days and that we had decent amounts for being so "early" in the season.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

there could be some flies in this 2 weeks of mildness, don't get sucked into the national hype.

 

Yeah a couple chances at one of those sneaky Quebec shots where nobody else except New England gets affected...so we could be briefly cooler at times. But yeah overall above normal and boring is the likely theme.

 

The changes indicated by the weeklies do show up near the end of the Euro ensemble run, so that is nice to see. Could be a fun 2nd half of November if we can get that to verify.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah a couple chances at one of those sneaky Quebec shots where nobody else except New England gets affected...so we could be briefly cooler at times. But yeah overall above normal and boring is the likely theme.

 

The changes indicated by the weeklies do show up near the end of the Euro ensemble run, so that is nice to see. Could be a fun 2nd half of November if we can get that to verify.

agree on all counts but I can't blanket call the next two weeks as boring and warm

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Having not seen the overnight computations just yet .. I am freebie-site reliant like all the other marginalized undying plebeian hobbyist and/or circumstantially side-line'd Mets...  but, through yesterday, the mass-field GEFs derivatives split the hemisphere in terms of how the numbers tend to correlate (as it would affect/effect)  to the circulation medium over North America...  For many nights of consistency in doing so, which lends some sort of confidence that things are 50/50 looking immediately ahead (spanning 2 weeks)  :blink:

The North Pacific flow (West region and how it eventually links up with the NE region;  WPO --> EPO) as suggested by those sources, was AB phased .. Which is code for:  take winter weather enthusiasts, bend them over, and mercilessly stick a disgusting act deeply up their collective rectum in a violation of everything they hold dear. 

...not to over-state matters of course ... 

However, all was not lost.  The other indexes, those that pertain more to land-masses and the polar-ward concerns, were directly in opposition across the same amount of consistency.

This in total offers a kind of 'probablistic split' in how the middle latitude flow constructs its self - i.e., a lot of that determination will prooobably have to be emergent in time?  Yet another way of saying ... everything modeled as deterministic solutions by any of them, majors to lesser dependable guidance sources, are passing through an era of excessive dishonesty.  

...not that anyone did, but just in case ... don't believe the operational tenors beyond ... day 5 or so.  I don't believe now is a time to assess the next two weeks as anything quite frankly, unless of course those who are privileged and have eyes on the Euro ensemble derivatives ... you 'might' offer some confidential insight to all of this - but I say might in quotes because no tooling by the art and mathematics of mankind is actually that good with 10 days out in time so ... I almost feel you can use either statistical source and that road leads to the same tentative conclusions at any given time.  

The first half of November (Nov 1-15) ... the flow could either:

a ...  take on the brown eyes of grand daddy Pacific at any given time, with relative scales of perceived panache/obviously correlated appeals.  The operational runs happen to presently be doing so with mammoth sprawling SE ridge and a general failure to achieve much of an semblance that hearkens to +PNA(-NAO).  However, I do recall a perhaps two or three cycles sprinkled along the last five-day timeline from the operational GFS/Euro where both did collapse toward more of a +PNA(-NAO); if nothing else the physical stress in the runs figuring out what is dominant is heating up processors despite any multiple coin-flips giving faux descriptions of the system.  Say ... 80% of the runs just happen to side with Pacific campaign financing.. 

b ...  take on the blue eyes of the cold witch of the north.  Caveat: the NAO could be eastward based; I'm not sure.. haven't looked. If so that could change the landscape a little.  Who knows what an east-based -NAO looks like on a wave-length spread akin to early November but ..heh, for some reason that intuitively sounds like Indian Summer to me.  The other caveat is that the PNA is a truly enormous spatial domain.  2/3rds of it could likely be characterized as negative(positive) in mode, while the other 1/3 is opposing because it is so large it can fit disparate wave-numbers and/or transient periods of unstable wave-numbers that pull the entire value of the teleconnector negative(positive).  You could be in the 1/3 of area that is 'out of sync', though.   

Barring those idiosyncrasies working as a mole in the Pacific AB bend-over scheme ... (ie, behaving along the more standard correlations) as of this moment the GEFs derivatives moderately argue for earlier winter like regime (coming from the PNA/NAO/AO), while that same ensemble basis would argue flooding Pacific ...almost El Nino flow into California should continue.  

By the way, rains have returned to the west coast.  I find it interesting that only now that the mega NINO has all but entirely died and left ghosts in the Global winds, does California have waves of verified and modeled new opportunities to collect Pacific moisture.  hmm. 

 

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