CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 We literally are in our own little world while the country is a blowtorch over next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We literally are in our own little world while the country is a blowtorch over next 10 days. Pretty much, but Wednesday and Thursday are near 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 lol euro day 8. Talk about digging, I think this came down from Quebec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 I'm intrigued, but it is 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Teleconnections support the polar vortex to invade SNE, but it is 8 days out, but the teleconnections support a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern which should place the PV at a latitude near 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 We cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Yes looks very cold towards days 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Teleconnections support the polar vortex to invade SNE, but it is 8 days out, but the teleconnections support a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern which should place the PV at a latitude near 40N. Polar vortex invading SNE already?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 12z GFS does show how the US can torch but New England can stay in its own little world. Day 5-9 is nice and seasonably cold as that high holds and energy seems to drop straight south out of Quebec, reinforcing the chill. Only one OP run but you can see how it could happen. New England Has been in its own little world in a lot of the weather patterns the past couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2016 Author Share Posted October 30, 2016 hard to tell if you all merely contemplate/complain what the 12z runs depict, or if you really think that's what's going to happen... if it were me, i would say that the ridge is over 'bulged' and will likely attenuate some in future cycles... as well, the growing signal for lowering heights along the EC will become more prevalent than this weird 'toe-hold' just in New England thing. Fwiw - NCEP seems to at least tentatively concur, putting more emphasis on that as near as even D7.. XTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1134 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2016 VALID 12Z WED NOV 02 2016 - 12Z SUN NOV 06 2016 ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WED-SUN. THIS WILL FAVOR A RETROGRSSIVE UPPER HIGH INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT TRACKS THROUGH MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT. THIS WILL FAVOR LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THU-SAT. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE SW STATES WILL CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW AND MEANDER AROUND ARIZONA FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING AND PERHAPS PUSHING EASTWARD, THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. THE FLOW IN THE PAC NW WILL LARGELY STAY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT WHICH SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO SW CANADA. MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MAY RETURN TO AT LEAST COASTAL OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE CASCADES. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 Tip, of course I don't take the euro verbatim. But it appears that there will be remarkable amplitude to the jet, with the possibility of some weird solutions. Personally, I would love to see a vort max dive from southwest Labrador to the NY bight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: hard to tell if you all merely contemplate/complain what the 12z runs depict, or if you really think that's what's going to happen... I generally approach it as if someone doesn't actually say they think that is what's going to happen and are posting about a specific model run, they are merely discussing what the model shows verbatim. Like, if you reference a Day 8 ECMWF prog, I assume you are just referencing a Day 8 ECMWF prog...not that you think it'll happen per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 I generally approach it as if someone doesn't actually say they think that is what's going to happen and are posting about a specific model run, they are merely discussing what the model shows verbatim. Like, if you reference a Day 8 ECMWF prog, I assume you are just referencing a Day 8 ECMWF prog...not that you think it'll happen per se. But the Euro is the best model, it beats all the other models at day 8. So it will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Dumping rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 .7" so far today and that puts us over 4" since last Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 .73 we wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Don't see a vendor thread so I will just post this in here. Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks. https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: .73 we wet Nice. I know our ground got wet......that may have been the extent of it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Don't see a vendor thread so I will just post this in here. Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks. https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw Whatever he forecasts the opposite always happens. It never fails. Good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Couple things to note... A Wiz low topped squall line looks likely late Thursday with temps in the 70's and dews in the 60's Chance there's some snow in the air in SNE later next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Minor dusting of snow this morning up at the office with light snow grains falling. Wintery appeal for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Cold air is coming, but how cold and duration of cold is in question still. However with teleconnections supporting a +pNA/-AO/-NAO pattern, should support multiple nor'easter storms with the potential to end as snow for the New England area if it begins as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Monster trough entering our region from the northwest towards day 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Chance at snow even for the coastal plain, although water temps are too high still, which should spark a monster nor'easter towards December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 16 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Don't see a vendor thread so I will just post this in here. Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks. Looks like an ex post facto forecast for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 The whole country is a blast furnace into Canada for the first two weeks. We will be in our own world with temps relatively cooler than what most of the country sees. Doldrums for awhile. The models do continue to show some retrogression of the GOAK low which will help pump the PNA up after mid month. But, to what extent remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whole country is a blast furnace into Canada for the first two weeks. We will be in our own world with temps relatively cooler than what most of the country sees. Doldrums for awhile. The models do continue to show some retrogression of the GOAK low which will help pump the PNA up after mid month. But, to what extent remains to be seen. 26 here, you mean its not going to snow on Kevs birthday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 26 here, you mean its not going to snow on Kevs birthday? No. Just Zzzzzzzs for a long time, other than a couple of cold shots. Maybe a few tstms late Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Euro delivers 3 fairly potent chill shots thru day 10. We all are glad we live here and not another area of country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro delivers 3 fairly potent chill shots thru day 10. We all are glad we live here and not another area of country Back to 80 tomorrow down here in VA. Looking forward to Thanksgiving and then back up there for a full week for Christmas. Need a KU then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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