Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

if you don't think that a reduction in sea ice relates to the upcoming winter, .....

climate change affects practical wx, this is not a conversation of whether CC is real or not, it is an analysis of its impacts on our sensible wx which are undeniable

Who are you? Please reveal yourself and your locale.

[qr7121]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who are you? Please reveal yourself and your locale.

a human 134.3 miles from Tolland CT

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

maybe GOAK low is retrograding bc of the hugely anomalous Siberian snowpack and not tropical forcing... these statements from the mets in this thread are being taken as facts; if these indices are so reliable then how come everyone sucks so badly at seasonal forecasting?

it is disturbing to see suggestions for improvements/considerations to seasonal forecasting being dismissed bc they don't conform to the existing faulty way of predicting things... just saying

Because models in general suck at long range weather prediction. Are you suggesting blindly accepting lack of sea ice will cause ridging and much colder than normal temps is the prudent way to long range forecast now?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

a human 134.3 miles from Tolland CT

Ladies and gents..It's Judah himself!

Congrats

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ..  your tenor smacks as though you're driving to disprove Mets as a personal agenda quite frankly... 

no met has averred anything.  "...Are being taken as facts"  ?  they are - by whom?   That might just be YOU doing that, but I don't think anyone is discussing this in prose or tenths suggesting immovable facts. 

we are, however, discussing what is 'KNOWN' to real science, and not merely adversarial guess work - more than half the content you have asserted has been either false, are, your logic in combining random field sciences is at best questionable and mostly ... no one really knows where to begin. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

I've heard that Siberian snow cover is the most extensive since 1975, helped along by the lack of sea ice.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ladies and gents..It's Judah himself!

Congrats

SW of Tolland...not E

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SW of Tolland...not E

Yeah I know Judas lives in BOS..This is a PHD met in NYC area

[qr7121]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ..  your tenor smacks as though you're driving to disprove Mets as a personal agenda quite frankly... 

no met has averred anything.  "...Are being taken as facts"  ?  they are - by whom?   That might just be YOU doing that, but I don't think anyone is discussing this in prose or tenths suggesting immovable facts. 

we are, however, discussing what is 'KNOWN' to real science, and not merely adversarial guess work - more than half the content you have asserted has been either false, are, your logic in combining random field sciences is at best questionable and mostly ... no one really knows where to begin. 

my personal agenda is to strive for understanding of the processes behind our sensible wx which largely result from the increasingly obvious shifts to our old climate...

consider that if these things were actually "KNOWN" you would be able to put out an accurate seasonal forecast each and every year... can you do this? i think you are very talented/intelligent but that doesn't mean you are good at LR forecasting... (though that doesn't mean you can't improve...!)

i have a moral objection to the way seasonal forecasting is currently conducted... largely within the scientific echo chamber, no real efforts for verification, simply back-patting for predictions that are vaguely correct (or not).

if we do not try and understand the root mechanisms behind the ongoing shifts, we will never be able to predict the wx beyond D10... but i think we *can* understand the root mechanisms and that LR forecasting is achievable with reasonable accuracy spanning seasons. 

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Because models in general suck at long range weather prediction. Are you suggesting blindly accepting lack of sea ice will cause ridging and much colder than normal temps is the prudent way to long range forecast now?

no i am not saying this... i am saying that a lack of sea ice encourages significantly more wintertime "blocking" over the Arctic (blocking = sustained emission of accumulated heat from open water)... this results in enhanced variability over all else; while we may see record warmth, we are also now seeing periods of record cold (consider last winter's 0F reading in NYC) despite the overwhelming signal for global warmth. 

not coincidentally, snowfall averages are now increasing dramatically across the entire NE... NYC's has nearly doubled over the past 15-20 yrs, Boston's has skyrocketed, and this will only continue. 

at some point the enhanced variability resulting from the decline in sea ice/increase in NHEM snowcover may overwhelm the system through albedo feedbacks, which is what I think happens in Hansen's climate models, though this is not explicitly stated. and the net effect when that happens is that we will see ice sheets begin growing once more over portions of Quebec/Siberia despite the fact that global temps are +1.5C vs. 1900.... because, in fact, the way heat distribution shifts in an ice-free Arctic actually favors cold and snow for the continents! (also consider that without sea ice, Greenland becomes the center for heat resolution in the NHEM, and its cooling capacity is about 10000x greater than the Arctic... which is why NYC got to 0 last winter)

[Sugarloaf1989]

It looks like there is a change already with the increase in Siberian snow cover and the 25% reduction in sea ice cover from normal at this point. I'm also hearing that Barrow AK now has a predominantly maritime climate due to the lack of sea ice with ocean effect snow now happening there in the fall. I'm not sure I buy into the idea of glacial formation in Quebec.

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

if you don't think that a reduction in sea ice relates to the upcoming winter, .....

climate change affects practical wx, this is not a conversation of whether CC is real or not, it is an analysis of its impacts on our sensible wx which are undeniable

2012 was a ratter

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

my personal agenda is to strive for understanding of the processes behind our sensible wx which largely result from the increasingly obvious shifts to our old climate...

consider that if these things were actually "KNOWN" you would be able to put out an accurate seasonal forecast each and every year... can you do this? i think you are very talented/intelligent but that doesn't mean you are good at LR forecasting... (though that doesn't mean you can't improve...!)

i have a moral objection to the way seasonal forecasting is currently conducted... largely within the scientific echo chamber, no real efforts for verification, simply back-patting for predictions that are vaguely correct (or not).

if we do not try and understand the root mechanisms behind the ongoing shifts, we will never be able to predict the wx beyond D10... but i think we *can* understand the root mechanisms and that LR forecasting is achievable with reasonable accuracy spanning seasons. 

no i am not saying this... i am saying that a lack of sea ice encourages significantly more wintertime "blocking" over the Arctic (blocking = sustained emission of accumulated heat from open water)... this results in enhanced variability over all else; while we may see record warmth, we are also now seeing periods of record cold (consider last winter's 0F reading in NYC) despite the overwhelming signal for global warmth. 

not coincidentally, snowfall averages are now increasing dramatically across the entire NE... NYC's has nearly doubled over the past 15-20 yrs, Boston's has skyrocketed, and this will only continue. 

at some point the enhanced variability resulting from the decline in sea ice/increase in NHEM snowcover may overwhelm the system through albedo feedbacks, which is what I think happens in Hansen's climate models, though this is not explicitly stated. and the net effect when that happens is that we will see ice sheets begin growing once more over portions of Quebec/Siberia despite the fact that global temps are +1.5C vs. 1900.... because, in fact, the way heat distribution shifts in an ice-free Arctic actually favors cold and snow for the continents! (also consider that without sea ice, Greenland becomes the center for heat resolution in the NHEM, and its cooling capacity is about 10000x greater than the Arctic... which is why NYC got to 0 last winter)

You are still taking a fact...decline in sea ice and arctic warming...and trying to present an attribution hypothesis as if it is also fact. It isn't. It's a hypothesis that probably needs a lot more data to confirm, and the mainstream literature hasn't been able to do that yet.

 

Why was 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and last year such blowtorch winters if the excessively low sea ice would have predicted a cold winter? We're working with a very small sample size of very low sea ice....really only since 2005ish....or 2007 if you want to talk values below 5 million sq km at the min. On the contrary, there is actually quite a bit of literature that attributes tropical convection to downstream ridging in the North Pacific.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are still taking a fact...decline in sea ice and arctic warming...and trying to present an attribution hypothesis as if it is also fact. It isn't. It's a hypothesis that probably needs a lot more data to confirm, and the mainstream literature hasn't been able to do that yet.

 

Why was 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and last year such blowtorch winters if the excessively low sea ice would have predicted a cold winter? We're working with a very small sample size of very low sea ice....really only since 2005ish....or 2007 if you want to talk values below 5 million sq km at the min. On the contrary, there is actually quite a bit of literature that attributes tropical convection to downstream ridging in the North Pacific.

Right, last year was a lower September ice extent than this year. So clearly other factors play into our winters besides sea ice.

[Ginx snewx]

15/16 was a near ratter and a ratter for NNE, so 2/5 years low snow, pF's snowfall average dropped 15 inches and JSpins 300 in that time frame

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Right, last year was a lower September ice extent than this year. So clearly other factors play into our winters besides sea ice.

Remember when low sea ice was going to shut down NE ski areas for good, that was the theory in 2012, now we shift gears. We are all going to die!! Sea rise!! not land subsidence, couldn't be.

[OceanStWx]

Is our climate likely to change with a dramatic loss of sea ice? Yes. Do we know what that change will be? No.

So how about November? 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Is our climate likely to change with a dramatic loss of sea ice? Yes. Do we know what that change will be? No.

So how about November? 

Torchy in the middle, normal at the corners, chilly normal Novie weekend before some more warmth next week. Changes in the books as we get deeper towards Tday

[qr7121]

re: November -- shift to cold begins in earnest by 11/15 as ridging over Rockies/Canada pushes N into Greenland, dislodging the PV SW into Quebec/Hudson Bay, then pushing it further S underneath the ridge...

that opens the door to a HECS ~11/25 and a continuation of a general cold pattern through 12/15 before a respite and possible resumption of cold ~NYE

i anticipate an event similar to 11/95 as well immediately prior to the shift (11/10-15), which may or may not end as snow accums in the NE/New England while also giving a bout of severe wx

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

my personal agenda is to strive for understanding of the processes behind our sensible wx which largely result from the increasingly obvious shifts to our old climate...

consider that if these things were actually "KNOWN" you would be able to put out an accurate seasonal forecast each and every year... can you do this? i think you are very talented/intelligent but that doesn't mean you are good at LR forecasting... (though that doesn't mean you can't improve...!)

i have a moral objection to the way seasonal forecasting is currently conducted... largely within the scientific echo chamber, no real efforts for verification, simply back-patting for predictions that are vaguely correct (or not).

if we do not try and understand the root mechanisms behind the ongoing shifts, we will never be able to predict the wx beyond D10... but i think we *can* understand the root mechanisms and that LR forecasting is achievable with reasonable accuracy spanning seasons. 

no i am not saying this... i am saying that a lack of sea ice encourages significantly more wintertime "blocking" over the Arctic (blocking = sustained emission of accumulated heat from open water)... this results in enhanced variability over all else; while we may see record warmth, we are also now seeing periods of record cold (consider last winter's 0F reading in NYC) despite the overwhelming signal for global warmth. 

not coincidentally, snowfall averages are now increasing dramatically across the entire NE... NYC's has nearly doubled over the past 15-20 yrs, Boston's has skyrocketed, and this will only continue. 

at some point the enhanced variability resulting from the decline in sea ice/increase in NHEM snowcover may overwhelm the system through albedo feedbacks, which is what I think happens in Hansen's climate models, though this is not explicitly stated. and the net effect when that happens is that we will see ice sheets begin growing once more over portions of Quebec/Siberia despite the fact that global temps are +1.5C vs. 1900.... because, in fact, the way heat distribution shifts in an ice-free Arctic actually favors cold and snow for the continents! (also consider that without sea ice, Greenland becomes the center for heat resolution in the NHEM, and its cooling capacity is about 10000x greater than the Arctic... which is why NYC got to 0 last winter)

you're rambling quite honestly...   you have very little logic to your flow of conscious: let's take these one at a time..

1 ... consider that if these things were actually "KNOWN" you would be able to put out an accurate seasonal forecast each and every year... can you do this? i think you are very talented/intelligent but that doesn't mean you are good at LR forecasting... (though that doesn't mean you can't improve...!)  you are confusing 'what is known' with what is fact and confusing the hell out of content-context relationships in common discourse.   There are components of the atmospheric systems that are known - it does not, however, follow logically from that statement to mean intrinsic skill in "seasonal forecast"  ... there's actually almost no logical transition there.  Seasonal forecast is requires more than is already known, and... the inter-relationships of all forces, from the subtle to gross scales, cannot be achieved out in time by even the most powerful computation tools known to man-kind (at present day technologies).  One important component of which has to do with fractals and that pesky little devil known as chaos.  the fluid body of the atmosphere is highly subjected to emergent forces where are a function of chaos and cannot be determined at extended time...let alone seasonal leads.   No one is 'good' at LR (by that you meant Seasonal - present context), but with correctly using what is known about the system, experience, and classical education combined, if all done in proficient measure the gap of utter dice rolling can be closed some - but some is not all. 

2 ... i have a moral objection to the way seasonal forecasting is currently conducted... largely within the scientific echo chamber, no real efforts for verification, simply back-patting for predictions that are vaguely correct (or not).  I actually agree with this, ...tho I probably wouldn't use the word 'moral' - that's a bit strong.  However, I don't believe the present company of Mets that engage in seasonal forecasting have ever strayed very far from 'probabilistic' discourse, making that abundantly clear.  You may have a problem with seasonal forecasting, but any responsibility to it when in hind-sight doesn't really pertain to, or necessarily mean in putting any of the content in this thread under critical review.  For one, it is not a seasonal forecast thread.  It's a thread to discuss November - PERIOD.  ...mainly, what a few of us are venturing 'educated application'.

3 .. if we do not try and understand the root mechanisms behind the ongoing shifts, we will never be able to predict the wx beyond D10... but i think we *can* understand the root mechanisms and that LR forecasting is achievable with reasonable accuracy spanning seasons. ... no i am not saying this... i am saying that a lack of sea ice encourages significantly more wintertime "blocking" over the Arctic (blocking = sustained emission of accumulated heat from open water)... this results in enhanced variability over all else; while we may see record warmth, we are also now seeing periods of record cold (consider last winter's 0F reading in NYC) despite the overwhelming signal for global warmth.  It's entirely possible and in fact, likely that the cryosphere has an impact on modulating the high latitude circulation medium - that's known to science already!  ...However, what is empirically shown ( you seem to have a problem accepting that many parts of what we've covered are derived via the scientific process - as though we've been operating from conjecture and loose assumptions...? you should probably also study up on how these scientific papers are refereed and released.  We probably wouldn't be having this discussion.  Apologies up front if that sound condescending, but you're not coming across as though you know what's going there).   The tale end of this immediately above, you're railing on about '...we are seeing periods of record warmth'.  Sorry, but this statement exposes a dearth of real understanding in how climate/climate modes are determined.  Also, the cryospheric (fyi) correlation is positive to blocking, not negative... what you said above.  So again again again, you have a refereed source work that oppose the multi-decade correlation already known, I implore you produce it. 

4 ... not coincidentally, snowfall averages are now increasing dramatically across the entire NE... NYC's has nearly doubled over the past 15-20 yrs, Boston's has skyrocketed, and this will only continue. 

at some point the enhanced variability resulting from the decline in sea ice/increase in NHEM snowcover may overwhelm the system through albedo feedbacks, which is what I think happens in Hansen's climate models, though this is not explicitly stated. and the net effect when that happens is that we will see ice sheets begin growing once more over portions of Quebec/Siberia despite the fact that global temps are +1.5C vs. 1900.... because, in fact, the way heat distribution shifts in an ice-free Arctic actually favors cold and snow for the continents! (also consider that without sea ice, Greenland becomes the center for heat resolution in the NHEM, and its cooling capacity is about 10000x greater than the Arctic... which is why NYC got to 0 last winter)

'not coincidentally'  -- okay.  but, the reason whysnow (and rain) for that matter, has increased everywhere (there's more to the world the Lower Mahattan just in case....) all over the planet is for two studied reasons:  a  .. measuring techniques;  b .. a warm(er) atmosphere hold more water vapor. This latter facet is not my opinion?  that is math. It can be shown by integrating PV=NRT. Any precipitating mechanism will rain harder from a source that is richer in theta-e. 

again, you need also to site your sources.  that's simply not true that a melted ice-cap means more snow in Deluth MN (for example) that's all leaped science fiction.  

[qr7121]

we have no idea what the implications of a melted ice cap are... so your last point basically shows how the entire previous argument is irrelevant. 

[tamarack]

not coincidentally, snowfall averages are now increasing dramatically across the entire NE... NYC's has nearly doubled over the past 15-20 yrs, Boston's has skyrocketed, and this will only continue. 

And if NYC mets looked back a similar timespan following the winter of 66-67 or 68-69, they could've said the same.  Sample size is too small.  Also, "entire NE" ignores NNE, where snowfall totals have been rather static during the past 15-20 years. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

re: November -- shift to cold begins in earnest by 11/15 as ridging over Rockies/Canada pushes N into Greenland, dislodging the PV SW into Quebec/Hudson Bay, then pushing it further S underneath the ridge...

that opens the door to a HECS ~11/25 and a continuation of a general cold pattern through 12/15 before a respite and possible resumption of cold ~NYE

i anticipate an event similar to 11/95 as well immediately prior to the shift (11/10-15), which may or may not end as snow accums in the NE/New England while also giving a bout of severe wx

Was that the severe Nov  soueaaster in 95 where we had gusts 65-75mph? If so..that's one of my all time faves

[qr7121]

the cooling in the 60s-70s was the result of enormous amounts of sulfate pollution... as we transitioned away from dirtier industry in the developed world we saw a corresponding dramatic spike in global temps beginning in the 70s as the blanket of smog began to lift... we saw a similar event occur in the 2000s re: Asian industrialization, only the impact of cleaner industry/the nascent economic slowdown will spike temps much faster this time, pushing us past the point of no return (and the new state of the climate -- ice-free Arctic -- = snowy continents)

this will become apparent over the next year

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

the cooling in the 60s-70s was the result of enormous amounts of sulfate pollution... as we transitioned away from dirtier industry in the developed world we saw a corresponding dramatic spike in global temps beginning in the 70s as the blanket of smog began to lift... we saw a similar event occur in the 2000s re: Asian industrialization, only the impact of cleaner industry/the nascent economic slowdown will spike temps much faster this time, pushing us past the point of no return (and the new state of the climate -- ice-free Arctic -- = snowy continents)

this will become apparent over the next year

That's really conflating climate with weather. The two are related but very different. It will take more than a year to definitely prove your ice-free Arctic = snowy continents theory.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

we have no idea what the implications of a melted ice cap are... so your last point basically shows how the entire previous argument is irrelevant. 

...Heh, 

now i'm wondering if you're even with it - 

" i am saying that a lack of sea ice encourages significantly more wintertime "blocking" over the Arctic  " ...that's your words my friend.  

[qr7121]

i have ideas and suppositions, that does not make them facts just yet... i am not conflating my own personal observations/thoughts with "TRUTH" like you guys are; factually, we have no data regarding what happens in an ice-free Arctic, that is a TRUTH. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Was that the severe Nov  soueaaster in 95 where we had gusts 65-75mph? If so..that's one of my all time faves

95-96 was the winter that NYC broke it's snowfall record with 75" of snow. We had that huge blizzard in early January with 25" where I lived in Queens at that time. This was followed by a massive thaw and that snow disappeared faster than I have seen since. It snowed into April that year, what a winter for snow lovers.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

i have ideas and suppositions, that does not make them facts just yet... i am not conflating my own personal observations/thoughts with "TRUTH" like you guys are; factually, we have no data regarding what happens in an ice-free Arctic, that is a TRUTH. 

What observations? You just said we have no data regarding an ice-free Arctic. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

95-96 was the winter that NYC broke it's snowfall record with 75" of snow. We had that huge blizzard in early January with 25" where I lived in Queens at that time. This was followed by a massive thaw and that snow disappeared faster than I have seen since. It snowed into April that year, what a winter for snow lovers.

I think he was talking about one of the regions great screaming sou easters though when he referred to the big Nov event 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

i have ideas and suppositions, that does not make them facts just yet... i am not conflating my own personal observations/thoughts with "TRUTH" like you guys are; factually, we have no data regarding what happens in an ice-free Arctic, that is a TRUTH. 

what is the accusation for? 

i think you're trying to legitimize a trolling behavior, that much is definitely true - you're the one that brought it up as a point of rebuttal, you can simultaneously argue from that position and not. 

tell you what, along the spectrum of legitimate information and cogent feed back based upon logically using that information appropriately, you are not worth this discussion.  

have a good one -