Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If this continues on into the winter I think we are toast, but hopefully not. Its only early November so I am not overly concerned at the moment.

It's just a temporary thing in early November. I wouldn't sweat it.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a disaster the promises of a pattern change this month has turned into. Nothing but a torch it seems based on what's being discussed

God. It will change some later this month. You just take one or two posts and go extreme. Always.

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

God. It will change some later this m?onth. You just take one or two posts and go extreme. Always.

He just loves to twist words doesn't he?

[Damage In Tolland]

When I look at a model run and see this..it doesn't make me think pattern change..Look at Pac flow and all of torched Canada. Obviously New England will benefit the most from any E canada cooling..so we don't all out furnace...and if timed right..maybe snow before Tgiving..Not sure why folks got so angry

 

 

[CoastalWx]

November brings out the torch fear posts. Never fails.  My guess is later this month the Pacific shuffles a bit and it may try to look more nina with the Plains perhaps cooling off. 

[Isotherm]

Right now, we're effectively experiencing a regime not entirely dissimilar from portions of last winter, during which, periods of heightened angular momentum induced robust jet extensions and consequently a flood of warmth throughout North America, in light of scarce downstream blocking. However, this will be a transient (relatively) pulse of Nino-like conditions. The jet will eventually retract as lower orbit AAM/GWO develop post mid November, which should chill the N Plains, I agree with Scott above. At this point, other variables are muting the mean upper divergence signal in the W PAC Maritimes, but that should manifest more strongly in terms of the tropospheric reflection, I think, by the latter part of November and thereafter. With all that being said, I'm not confident that any protracted cold envelops the E US at this point, through week 3 at least. I'm more confident that we'll see the response, especially initially, in the Rockies and N Plains. ENSO SST's have been running on the chilly side in the central ENSO regions; however, the oceanic-atmospheric coupling has been meager thus far. I believe that will change as well down the road.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Right now, we're effectively experiencing a regime not entirely dissimilar from portions of last winter, during which, periods of heightened angular momentum induced robust jet extensions and consequently a flood of warmth throughout North America, in light of scarce downstream blocking. However, this will be a transient (relatively) pulse of Nino-like conditions. The jet will eventually retract as lower orbit AAM/GWO develop post mid November, which should chill the N Plains, I agree with Scott above. At this point, other variables are muting the mean upper divergence signal in the W PAC Maritimes, but that should manifest more strongly in terms of the tropospheric reflection, I think, by the latter part of November and thereafter. With all that being said, I'm not confident that any protracted cold envelops the E US at this point, through week 3 at least. I'm more confident that we'll see the response, especially initially, in the Rockies and N Plains. ENSO SST's have been running on the chilly side in the central ENSO regions; however, the oceanic-atmospheric coupling has been meager thus far. I believe that will change as well down the road.

I applaud the effort, Iso' ... but, what we are experiencing is a dearth of real intellect and lucid contribution to this social media - a circumstance of growing plague that started about five years ago and has gotten out of control.  It's become 'riffraffy' around here, honks and plebes in lower stations of sentience to even science, with access to information but not a lot of native ability to process that information appropriately/logically before formulating opinions; then using those opinion to mock the individuals that put in the dimes and times to really learn and understand this schit ... now runs amok. 

Somewhere in there ... yes, agreed, there might be some similarities .. if perhaps physically rooted (or coincidence - who knows?) that lingers over from last year.  However, nothing's changed (imho) since reviewing this stuff yesterday - not that many people even read and understood (christ).Eit 

We have an arc of teleconnectors portending colder stormier times, yet not a lot of operational model commitment to that sort of paradigm(s). I don't use the Euro ensemble means/derived products but last I was aware, they do bear some semblance to the GEFs ensembles ..if perhaps delaying matters another week or so. Anyway, (think cave man here...) 'no storm on model - shamon no magic'

by the way ...  the ideas re the NAO and its phase states to storm tracks is entirely academic going back decades of clad research, papers, and empirical evidences...as well as a-priori experience by all officiate channels, private to public science.

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html  That's just the tax-paid open to all users accessible source, but there's millions of documented stuff on this 101 level stuff. If you don't trust the internet (that I actually agree with), I implore you go old school and hit the library and read about it.   Either way...if you guys can't get your heads around this, i don't know what to say.  i'm getting the notion that deniers are taking over this site.   it's not debatable - Lakes cutting system correlate with Positive NAO and the oppsite is true, farther S, with -NAO. 

NOT NEGATIONABLE, NO ROOM FOR DEBATE.  

[jbenedet]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

by the way ...  the ideas re the NAO and its phase states to storm tracks is entirely academic going back decades of clad research, papers, and empirical evidences...as well as a-priori experience by all officiate channels, private to publi

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html  That's just the tax-paid open to all users accessible source, but there's millions of documented stuff on this 101 level stuff. If you don't trust the internet (that I actually agree with), I implore you go old school and hit the library and read about it.   Either way...if you guys can't get your heads around this, i don't know what to say.  i'm getting the notion that deniers are taking over this site.   it's not debatable - Lakes cutting system correlate with Positive NAO and the oppsite is true, farther S, with -NAO. 

NOT NEGATIONABLE, NO ROOM FOR DEBATE.  

That ncsu link does nothing to prove your point.  

And this statement is void of any useful information: "Lakes cutting system correlate with Positive NAO and the oppsite is true, farther S, with -NAO." Well how does it correlate? Negatively? Positively? 

You should go back and reread the orginal discussion because the point was never as trivial as -NAO is positively or negatively correlated to snow/cold in the northeast. The context considered the position of the long wave ridge and trough axis, as well as their respective magnitudes. In addition I was looking at the cold air mass in place which could help fuel rapid SW development.

You can look at books and theory all you want, but if you look at reality (history) you will find a litany of storms that cut with a - NAO, and that was due in large part to my previous points. A - NAO slows the westerlies and allows greater baroclinicity to develop over the eastern CONUS which can result in rapid storm development west of our region, manifesting in a cutter.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That ncsu link does nothing to prove your point.  

And this statement is void of any useful information: "Lakes cutting system correlate with Positive NAO and the oppsite is true, farther S, with -NAO." Well how does it correlate? Negatively? Positively? 

You should go back and reread the orginal discussion because the point was never as trivial as -NAO is positively or negatively correlated to snow/cold in the northeast. The context considered the position of the long wave ridge and trough axis, as well as their respective magnitudes. In addition I was looking at the cold air mass in place which could help fuel rapid SW development.

You can look at books and theory all you want, but if you look at reality (history) you will find a litany of storms that cut with a - NAO, and that was due in large part to my previous points. A - NAO slows the westerlies and allows greater baroclinicity to develop over the eastern CONUS which can result in rapid storm development west of our region, manifesting in a cutter.

 

 

 who do you think you are talking to...?

-NAO correlates to suppressed storm tracks;  +NAO correlates to westward storm tracks/Lakes ... 

if you got a problem with that, do the research - i'm not doing it for you.  then publish your work. 

and i read your original post and the comprehension of it, unless you changed, does not change. you clearly don't demonstrate you know much about basic teleconnector/correlation schemes. 

 

 

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 who do you think you are talking to...?

-NAO correlates to suppressed storm tracks;  +NAO correlates to westward storm tracks/Lakes ... 

if you got a problem with that, do the research - i'm not doing it for you.  then publish your work. 

and i read your original post and the comprehension of it, unless you changed, does not change. you clearly don't demonstrate you know much about basic teleconnector/correlation schemes. 

 

 

Strong east based -NAO can have systems that cut through the eastern lakes. Even just a standard east based -NAO would favor a storm track inland and not suppressed.

[jbenedet]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 who do you think you are talking to...?

-NAO correlates to suppressed storm tracks;  +NAO correlates to westward storm tracks/Lakes ... 

if you got a problem with that, do the research - i'm not doing it for you.  then publish your work. 

and i read your original post and the comprehension of it, unless you changed, does not change. you clearly don't demonstrate you know much about basic teleconnector/correlation schemes. 

 

 

A guy in a forum who claims to know far more than he is able to convey.

So we have a correlation folks--we don't know how it is correlated, but it's correlated. Wonderful. 

Anyway, taking one relationship and overlaying that on each and every pattern with myriad variables and expecting the same relationship to hold is just bad science, unless the correlation is perfect, which it most certainly isn't.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

A guy in a forum who claims to know far more than he is able to convey.

So we have a correlation folks--we don't know how it is correlated, but it's correlated. Wonderful. 

Anyway, taking one relationship and overlaying that on each and every pattern with myriad variables and expecting the same correlation to hold is just bad science, unless the correlation is perfect, which it most certainly isn't.

not sure i understand your question - 

perhaps if you clarified what it is you are after (from me - anyway)...  the frequency of storm tracks through the Lakes is bias to +NAO, and through the MA/lower OV during -NAO. 

there's no much else there to specify but ... heh, i probably just don't get what you want. i can't write it any more clear than that; and have written it that way all along. so if that's unintelligible, my bad - sorry. 

but also, i agree that these are always dealing in probabilities and less than 1::1 correlations... 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Strong east based -NAO can have systems that cut through the eastern lakes. Even just a standard east based -NAO would favor a storm track inland and not suppressed.

this is true ...  ( i thought of this but didn't want to get things confused with adding to the base-line correlation)   

biased NAO circulation changes the land-scape a little.   

[Stebo]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

this is true ...  ( i thought of this but didn't want to get things confused with adding to the base-line correlation)   

biased NAO circulation changes the land-scape a little.   

I think it does matter to the discussion though, really only a west based NAO is favorable in the discussion.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Stebo said:

I think it does matter to the discussion though, really only a west based NAO is favorable in the discussion.

favorable for what? 

 

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

favorable for what? 

 

For suppression and systems not cutting into the lakes. Note I am talking purely NAO, the AO phases change that somewhat.

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure i understand your question - 

perhaps if you clarified what it is you are after (from me - anyway)...  the frequency of storm tracks through the Lakes is bias to +NAO, and through the MA/lower OV during -NAO. 

there's no much else there to specify but ... heh, i probably just don't get what you want. i can't write it any more clear than that; and have written it that way all along. so if that's unintelligible, my bad - sorry

Maybe if you would look at times when the correlation didn't hold true, this conversation would become a whole lot more productive.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Stebo said:

For suppression and systems not cutting into the lakes.

oh, right - absolutely...  

yeah, it's also murky when the NAO is an inherently stochastic domain space (of all teleconnector fields, it is the most variable - that I am aware... ), and so delta(index) is probably paramount if we really wanted to dig in...  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Maybe if you would look at times when the correlation didn't hold true, this conversation would become a whole lot more productive.

no, i think "I" need to understand what you are asking, first - then we'll see. 

look - it's not that important to me. you have your ideas.  i have mine, and i'm sure we have mountains of reason to support our individual perspectives on matters.  

the basic teleconnector modes, barring idiosyncrasies in the details of the flow like those Stebo cogently brought up, are such that +NAO tends/favors storm track turning left earlier, and -NAO moves them further east.  that's just plain not arguable and proven in science on the matter. 

beyond that, i suppose the onus is on me that i don't get what the discussion is even needed for. just leave it at that.

[qr7121]

meanwhile both CMC/GFS now show the apps cutter/severe wx/possible ending as snow (homage to 11/95) ~11/13

CMC less amped

[qr7121]

while it is obviously the LR GFS this is exactly the look I anticipate heading into late Nov which sets us up perfectly for a HECS ~11/25

[Ginx snewx]

220 and 384 hr op runs, alrighty then

[ORH_wxman]

It is pretty unarguable that when all other variables are held constant, a -NAO will favor further south and east storm tracks in the Northeast. Obviously not all other variables are held constant in reality, but if you are trying to isolate the effect of one variable, then it is necessary to do so.

[OceanStWx]

18 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

be careful or tip will brand you as a plebe... LOL!

funny how any Qs re: the dogma of acronyms are met with so much hostility... makes sense considering the ease of spitting out three-letter acronyms vs. discussing cause/effect behind patterns.

That's typically what happens here. But when you show up with one cause for all effects, then yes there is some pushback.

[qr7121]

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's typically what happens here. But when you show up with one cause for all effects, then yes there is some pushback.

who said there was one cause for all effects???

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

who said there was one cause for all effects???

You essentially said yesterday the arctic had overwhelmed the entire system and that regular patterns like the PNA were irrelevant....which you got pushback on for good reason.

 

 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You essentially said yesterday the arctic had overwhelmed the entire system and that regular patterns like the PNA were irrelevant....which you got pushback on for good reason.

Call me a tropical weenie, but I think it's pretty important too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Massive cold shot late next week on Euro. Wild run to run changes. 

 

[qr7121]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You essentially said yesterday the arctic had overwhelmed the entire system and that regular patterns like the PNA were irrelevant....which you got pushback on for good reason.

 

 

...i said that your acronyms are irrelevant. the Arctic has largely overwhelmed the entire system but that does not mean other variables are not in play. i just think that using things like PNA/NAO/AO to analyze cause and effect is an exercise in futility that does nothing to advance the science (acronyms do not advance understanding of cause and effect). 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

3 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

...i said that your acronyms are irrelevant. the Arctic has largely overwhelmed the entire system but that does not mean other variables are not in play. i just think that using things like PNA/NAO/AO to analyze cause and effect is an exercise in futility that does nothing to advance the science (acronyms do not advance understanding of cause and effect). 

Can you expand on that; what do you mean by 'using PNA/NAO/AO to analyze cause and effect'?