CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Just now, qr7121 said: most def... a very nice look for that far out... i am beginning to like the chances of the 11/13-15 event for some decent accums vs just minor snows Changes started rolling in the Pacific and you can see how a piece of the PV broke off in Canada and headed south. You also had changes in srn Greenland to ensure the delivery into the EC. The deep south goes from record highs to maybe record lows in a short time..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Nice lake effect snow event for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 A seasons in seasons run. Hopefully it's got the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Cmc is also similiar to the gfs with the lake effect snow and cold temps for next weekend. GFS looks very cold in the long range. Good sign . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Changes started rolling in the Pacific and you can see how a piece of the PV broke off in Canada and headed south. You also had changes in srn Greenland to ensure the delivery into the EC. The deep south goes from record highs to maybe record lows in a short time..lol. i think this will be running theme this winter... we will see severe cold mixed w warmth but i think cold wins out 11/15-12/15 at least, and then probably in january too tho i hesitate to go out that far... i seriously believe Boston will set all time record snowfall this yr thanks to the variability. think 14-15 but even better but also spread out through multiple snowy periods instead of only 45ish days of crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, qr7121 said: i think this will be running theme this winter... we will see severe cold mixed w warmth but i think cold wins out 11/15-12/15 at least, and then probably in january too tho i hesitate to go out that far... i seriously believe Boston will set all time record snowfall this yr thanks to the variability. think 14-15 but even better but also spread out through multiple snowy periods instead of only 45ish days of crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Def a good event for Novie, but not a Kocin HECS Nov 2014 was also decent but I wouldn't call it historic. Again how many 1 foot storms have you had mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: if you say so... it is the LR GFS but multiple snow chances are now beginning to appear D10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 this is going to be the most brutal winter most of humanity has ever seen mark my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Yeah I wouldn't go that far though. First off the op run was way warmer than ensembles so I'm not surprised. I think this is just the GOAK low slowly retrograding and you see what happens when you shut the Pacific down. If this retros more, than we get a more dateline ridge and perhaps a more -PNA...but I'm just extrapolating there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I wouldn't go that far though. First off the op run was way warmer than ensembles so I'm not surprised. I think this is just the GOAK low slowly retrograding and you see what happens when you shut the Pacific down. If this retros more, than we get a more dateline ridge and perhaps a more -PNA...but I'm just extrapolating there. of course it is absurdly far out, but the way we get to ^ gets going much earlier... the point of the map is not the specifics but the configuration of the cold -- it looks like the Arctic is about to basically become an enormous closed off dome with tons of heat trapped within, while the continents adjacent produce a solid ring of record cold anomalies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, qr7121 said: this is going to be the most brutal winter most of humanity has ever seen mark my words Ain't happeningJames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 16 minutes ago, qr7121 said: of course it is absurdly far out, but the way we get to ^ gets going much earlier... the point of the map is not the specifics but the configuration of the cold -- it looks like the Arctic is about to basically become an enormous closed off dome with tons of heat trapped within, while the continents adjacent produce a solid ring of record cold anomalies... Record cold anomalies are locked over Siberia, don't see that changing anytime soon or in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 16 minutes ago, qr7121 said: of course it is absurdly far out, but the way we get to ^ gets going much earlier... the point of the map is not the specifics but the configuration of the cold -- it looks like the Arctic is about to basically become an enormous closed off dome with tons of heat trapped within, while the continents adjacent produce a solid ring of record cold anomalies... Or maybe it's cold in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Yeah predicting record seasonal snowfall this far out is about as weenieish as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah predicting record seasonal snowfall this far out is about as weenieish as it gets. Triple bun worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Or maybe it's cold in winter do you know what "anomaly" means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, qr7121 said: do you know what "anomaly" means? Hyperbolic worst winter ever. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hyperbolic worst winter ever. Enjoy by tolerating this BS the mods are tacitly endorsing climate denialism... why is there such a culture of anti-intellectualism on this board? this is not hyperbole, we are in fact off the cliff on several fronts, yet you are allowed to post insults/etc without any rationale or basis in logical thought... below is DMI temps for 80N... we are literally just way beyond anything at this point... it is truly absurd how bad the situation is... at least the lobster in the pot knows it's getting warm, whereas you don't even know the definition of "anomaly" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 You keep conflating your unscientific claim that the Arctic is overwhelming everything else with climate denial. They aren't the same. If anyone is denying the science, it is those making hyperbolic statements without peer review literature to support their claims. Everyone in here has acknowledged the Arctic amplification we've seen in the past couple decades, but where you fly off the rails is claiming that it is more important than things like tropical forcing and that classic loading patterns like the PNA don't matter anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 People need to realize that warm temperatures doesn't necessarily mean a crappy snow for the winter season. Actually most times good snows happen when temperatures are in flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 I have found out that the PNA matters perhaps the most in terms of snowfall along the coastal plain in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 A +PNA pattern almost guarantees an East Coast trough in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You keep conflating your unscientific claim that the Arctic is overwhelming everything else with climate denial. They aren't the same. If anyone is denying the science, it is those making hyperbolic statements without peer review literature to support their claims. Everyone in here has acknowledged the Arctic amplification we've seen in the past couple decades, but where you fly off the rails is claiming that it is more important than things like tropical forcing and that classic loading patterns like the PNA don't matter anymore. we had a stable three-cell system thanks to the Arctic... that is no longer the case now that it is shifting to a temperate climate most of the year... you think that destroying the polar/tropical gradient isn't going to tip everything out of balance? you must not have been looking out the window for the past yr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 The problem with LA Ninas is that there is a ton of arctic and northern stream energy involved while the stream is in flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, qr7121 said: by tolerating this BS the mods are tacitly endorsing climate denialism... why is there such a culture of anti-intellectualism on this board? this is not hyperbole, we are in fact off the cliff on several fronts, yet you are allowed to post insults/etc without any rationale or basis in logical thought... below is DMI temps for 80N... we are literally just way beyond anything at this point... it is truly absurd how bad the situation is... at least the lobster in the pot knows it's getting warm, whereas you don't even know the definition of "anomaly" Lol yeah ok you just forecasted the worst winter ever . How about you tell us what was the worst previous winter. I can school you dude. But going to ignore your trolling as I wouldn't want to upset a a sensitive snowflake . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 If you want an above climate snowfall pattern, the +PNA needs to be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Steve the problem is talking about your backyard compared to my backyard, our worst winters snowfall wise differ because you are further west than I am and I am on the ocean. 05 was the worst winter snowfall here 98.7" fell in my backyard while another winter might have been worse for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah predicting record seasonal snowfall this far out is about as weenieish as it gets. But but we don't understand anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 CMC/GFS/EURO all on board for a below climate temperatures come the 15th and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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