powderfreak Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every good winter begins with one. If we can get that to happen with winds 65-75mph..oh #1 how we'd all want that..but #2..it would usher in winter pattern behind it lol every good AND bad winters usually have them in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: My post was in response to Kevin saying all out BN after mid month. It's a pattern flip but not sure all out BN the entire second half. We all know hot it goes... when season's are changing he has the patience of a 6-year old kid on Christmas morning, lol. Like trying to get 84/68 in April once he flips outta winter mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Why laugh when all ENS modeling indicates it does change. Gut feeling ? I understand that the latter runs have flip flopped...but I think its going to be rushed. I'm not denying that the pattern is going to improve and we will see at least a decent winter. Canada also needs to cool off, too... I'm def. not trolling btw....I realize that even if we do flip right on schedule, I'm probably not seeing much of any accumulating snow here for at least a another few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 The euro ensembles definitely have a Nina look with dateline ridging and heights trying to lower out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro ensembles definitely have a Nina look with dateline ridging and heights trying to lower out west. Doesn't exactly scream deep eastern winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Euro setting an absolute screamer of screamers day 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doesn't exactly scream deep eastern winter... I can dig that look in December. Let the snowpack finally develop in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I can dig that look in December. Let the snowpack finally develop in Canada. I've been thinking about that....that's our SWFE look but we need the snowpack in Canada to keep those low level air masses crisp. Its great when we are in our own little world with a trough in the northeast (or as has been the case recently, from like upstate NY eastward through New England), but we need that snowpack to get going in Canada. Don't want to torch the Canadian prairies indefinitely. Definitely need that Canadian snowpack to start growing, even if we are mild for a little bit because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I can dig that look in December. Let the snowpack finally develop in Canada. Exactly. That is what I have been saying all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I'm not down on the winter, and didn't mean to understate any pending transiton..but I just want to guard against having some go overboard on the ramifications of said change prior to the turn of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not down on the winter, and didn't mean to understate any pending transiton..but I just want to guard against having some go overboard on the ramifications of said change prior to the turn of the month. If people think pattern change automatically implies snowstorms, then shame on them...or if they are new, keeping reading about patterns in here and they'll learn that's not what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 day cold shot then retorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 ??? Nice west coast ridging..one eyed pig is gone , cross polar flow, and deep troughing over eastern 2/3rds ..that's a wholesale pattern change and no retorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ??? Nice west coast ridging..one eyed pig is gone , cross polar flow, and deep troughing over eastern 2/3rds ..that's a wholesale pattern change and no retorch Congrats INL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats INL. LOL, twitter for the loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats INL. Where's Scooter's massive rest of month torch there? I don't follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where's Scooter's massive rest of month torch there? I don't follow Well that's just one snapshot panel, and the EPS mean trof looked to be centered to our W, which isn't really a cold look for us overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well that's just one snapshot panel, and the EPS mean trof looked to be centered to our W, which isn't really a cold look for us overall. Right, less cold nationally. It's a shift, but I don't know about the deep winter some are touting. Looks like it cools off in Canada so maybe we'll get these intrusions south into the US as troughing develops in the west. Basically cold weekend, and then we warm up with the cutter later next week. After that, probably another cooldown, but if the EPS is right...I think cold is more Plains and west and it may not be all that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 There is a storm around the 10th of November that turns into a nor'easter that moves from the northwest to southeast across the benchmark according to the NAM and GFS while the CMC and EURO are further south with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I'm expecting rain obviously but the GFS keeps snow in the forecast for the 13th, although it is likely flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 According to the latest GFS ensembles what is the day before thanksgiving looking like? Operational GFS has some type of storm in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Second nor'easter offshore this week comes around the 9th to the 10th of November and could give us some snow, however the bigger storm looks to be offshore on the 13th but still give CHH some snow from OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Right, less cold nationally. It's a shift, but I don't know about the deep winter some are touting. Looks like it cools off in Canada so maybe we'll get these intrusions south into the US as troughing develops in the west. Basically cold weekend, and then we warm up with the cutter later next week. After that, probably another cooldown, but if the EPS is right...I think cold is more Plains and west and it may not be all that cold. Yea but Scott retorch? Hyperbole on both sides is what is the problem in all things. Guess its the millennial way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 I don't think we retorch for a while after the plains troughing gets in place, We might have warm rain storms, but not a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 NAM is becoming more and more dynamic with the cold shot and trough on the 9th and 10th system. Could be our little mini nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 NAM is close to producing our first snowstorm of the season on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 It looks like a rain storm that turns over to a backlash of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea but Scott retorch? Hyperbole on both sides is what is the problem in all things. Guess its the millennial way That h500 of the Euro ensemble at hr 240 is a very warm look for us. We will have to see how amped up that cutter becomes but as is modeled now on most guidance, it looks to cut well west of us, meaning we go from way above normal to just normal as we never really get the backside cold. And then we would be primed to be on the warm side of the following wave. So basically as it looks to be right now, next week has a good shot at being well above normal in the Northeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, jbenedet said: That h500 of the Euro ensemble at hr 240 is a very warm look for us. We will have to see how amped up that cutter becomes but as is modeled now on most guidance, it looks to cut well west of us, meaning we go from way above normal to just normal as we never really get the backside cold. And then we would be primed to be on the warm side of the following wave. So basically as it looks to be right now, next week has a good shot at being well above normal in the Northeast US. Even if it is just one model day ten outlook, the GFS doesn't agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 We need to watch this storm system very carefully on the guidance this late morning into the afternoon today as NAM has swung towards the GFS with a very dynamic storm system with H5 heights crashing to 540dm within the upper level low. Snow heavy at times on the backside of the storm system on Thursday. Especially BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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