Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you expand on that; what do you mean by 'using PNA/NAO/AO to analyze cause and effect'?

Yeah I'm not sure what he's talking about.

 

[qr7121]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you expand on that; what do you mean by 'using PNA/NAO/AO to analyze cause and effect'?

people generally create seasonal forecasts by analyzing where those indices stand and comparing to previous yrs (as well as ENSO etc)... i.e. they look for analogs and then project what happened in the past onto the future.

this is *not* a way to forecast -- it is literally like saying that since X event happened 20 yrs ago as well then you expect the following Y event to happen today. except you cannot explain why X even led to Y back then, so it isn't like the extrapolation has any meaningful value... especially if the base climate state is +.5-1C vs. 20 yrs ago.

instead of forecasting based on analog analysis (through various indices), i think it is important to take a proactive approach by looking at the *current* state and then considering recent changes to climate.

i.e., instead of discussing -NAO, to truly understand why there is or isn't ridging over Greenland, one would look at current SSTAs, anticipated snowcover growth over North America/Europe, and then come to the conclusion that, as Europe/North America gain snowcover, you basically surround the newly-ice-free waters of the Kara/Barentz with frigid continental airmasses. so as we see hemispheric snow extent increase, the resulting forcing combined with the warm NATL results in a plume of heat that manifests as "blocking". 

do you get what i am saying??? there *is* a way to determine state in the future but the way to go about this is not by looking at the past (unless you restrict the data to maybe 5-10 yrs, but even then, things are now changing so quickly, and past weather should only be used as an aid to guidance, not an end-all...)

[qr7121]

this actually manifests perfectly on the 12z EURO... Europe is going to gain a tremendous amount of snowcover next week (Western European cold usually teleconnects to EUS cold)... 

as the Alps and Scandinavia (and midland/highlands elsewhere) become covered, you can see a ridge pop to the North immediately afterwards, over the still open (and relatively very warm waters) of the far NATL/Kara/etc. you can call that a -NAO if you like, but that obscures the why/how behind how the ridging gets there... i am so sick of the acronyms

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

people generally create seasonal forecasts by analyzing where those indices stand and comparing to previous yrs (as well as ENSO etc)... i.e. they look for analogs and then project what happened in the past onto the future.

this is *not* a way to forecast -- it is literally like saying that since X event happened 20 yrs ago as well then you expect the following Y event to happen today. except you cannot explain why X even led to Y back then, so it isn't like the extrapolation has any meaningful value... especially if the base climate state is +.5-1C vs. 20 yrs ago.

instead of forecasting based on analog analysis (through various indices), i think it is important to take a proactive approach by looking at the *current* state and then considering recent changes to climate.

i.e., instead of discussing -NAO, to truly understand why there is or isn't ridging over Greenland, one would look at current SSTAs, anticipated snowcover growth over North America/Europe, and then come to the conclusion that, as Europe/North America gain snowcover, you basically surround the newly-ice-free waters of the Kara/Barentz with frigid continental airmasses. so as we see hemispheric snow extent increase, the resulting forcing combined with the warm NATL results in a plume of heat that manifests as "blocking". 

do you get what i am saying??? there *is* a way to determine state in the future but the way to go about this is not by looking at the past (unless you restrict the data to maybe 5-10 yrs, but even then, things are now changing so quickly, and past weather should only be used as an aid to guidance, not an end-all...)

 

You are assuming that looking at SSTs and snow cover is going to accurately predict how the NAO is going to behave. The snow advance index (SAI) does appear to have some skill at predicting the AO (which by domain overlap means it should also have some skill at predicting the NAO), but that skill level is uncertain. You would have failed miserably the past few years using it to predict the state of blocking. The U.S. was cold anyway in 2013-2014 due to an excessive gulf of Alaska ridge (EPO ridging), but the SAI doesn't exclusively predict that area, so it is hard to give much credit. A large swath of the arctic that should have had huge blocking, did not.

[qr7121]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

You are assuming that looking at SSTs and snow cover is going to accurately predict how the NAO is going to behave. The snow advance index (SAI) does appear to have some skill at predicting the AO (which by domain overlap means it should also have some skill at predicting the NAO), but that skill level is uncertain. You would have failed miserably the past few years using it to predict the state of blocking. The U.S. was cold anyway in 2013-2014 due to an excessive gulf of Alaska ridge (EPO ridging), but the SAI doesn't exclusively predict that area, so it is hard to give much credit. A large swath of the arctic that should have had huge blocking, did not.

we can agree to disagree.... you just threw a bucketful of acronyms at me, proving my point

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are assuming that looking at SSTs and snow cover is going to accurately predict how the NAO is going to behave. The snow advance index (SAI) does appear to have some skill at predicting the AO (which by domain overlap means it should also have some skill at predicting the NAO), but that skill level is uncertain. You would have failed miserably the past few years using it to predict the state of blocking. The U.S. was cold anyway in 2013-2014 due to an excessive gulf of Alaska ridge (EPO ridging), but the SAI doesn't exclusively predict that area, so it is hard to give much credit. A large swath of the arctic that should have had huge blocking, did not.

He can flip out about indices all he wants, but in order to get cold into the Northeast especially we need the ridge in the right place out west. It can't just pop anywhere over the Arctic. So the acronyms probably aren't going anywhere.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

people generally create seasonal forecasts by analyzing where those indices stand and comparing to previous yrs (as well as ENSO etc)... i.e. they look for analogs and then project what happened in the past onto the future. ... 

interetsing.  Who does this?  Those indexes that you name cannot possibly parlay into a seasonal outlook; they are variable at much shorter time scales than seasonality in length.  Some of them move slower to change then others; the NAO for example can have intra-weekly time-scale variance, ranging positive and negative and back again inside 7 or 10 days based on what perturbations are moving through it's domain space. The PNA on the other hand ... encompasses a truly massive domain space, much much larger ..therefore, it's modes tend to move slower toward change; still, much much faster than seasonal time scales.   Anyone putting out a seasonal forecast based on PNA outlooks - if you are seeing that, I agree that's dubious unless proven skill-wise.  

this is *not* a way to forecast -- it is literally like saying that since X event happened 20 yrs ago as well then you expect the following Y event to happen today. except you cannot explain why X even led to Y back then, so it isn't like the extrapolation has any meaningful value... especially if the base climate state is +.5-1C vs. 20 yrs ago. ... This isn't entirely true.  You can look at enough examples in a data set and derive a correlation coefficient, and deeper analysis perform a chi-test to determine signficance.  These are rudimentary statistical applications to determine/describe/characterize a set of data.  If a +PNA was present 90 times out of 100 times, these statistical methods would help elucidate whether the 90 times were random - and ... further more, theoretically, the user has 'outside the box' ideas on the system based upon theoretical/physical knowledge.  A positive PNA has a very high confidence interval that argues for western heights - not every time of course, but that probability strongly favors that.  Such that when the modality of the PNA is a rising one... forecasting a cooling pattern in eastern North America is better than "*not*" a way to forecast.   Having said all that, ... if you mean you can't be 100 % fully reliant upon the indexes ... of course - no one that I know worth a salt in this business does that either.

instead of forecasting based on analog analysis (through various indices), i think it is important to take a proactive approach by looking at the *current* state and then considering recent changes to climate. ... What I just said above certainly suffices as a 'proactive approach' (but I'm not entirely certain what that means in that context...).  As to climate, you're conflating climate with weather (I think.) ..certainly sounds that way. However, I take no exception with modulating a little ... But, you have also contradicted yourself here; you cannot eschew using analog based forecasts in one method, then turn around and "consider recent changes in climate" - analogs are a branch of climate.  

i.e., instead of discussing -NAO, to truly understand why there is or isn't ridging over Greenland, one would look at current SSTAs, anticipated snowcover growth over North America/Europe, and then come to the conclusion that, as Europe/North America gain snowcover, you basically surround the newly-ice-free waters of the Kara/Barentz with frigid continental airmasses. so as we see hemispheric snow extent increase, the resulting forcing combined with the warm NATL results in a plume of heat that manifests as "blocking". ... Unfortunately here your premise is entirely flawed - or at least, goes against BOTH convention science on the matter PLUS logic (really...).  I am not prepared, nor is anyone else, to say that SSTA's and snow cover preponderance upon land masses do not play a role in matters - that's amply scienced to be true, and is alo not new information to anyone in this business.  However, those factors don't relate to day to day pattern modulation and certainly not to sensible weather.  Most importantly, there are other factors shown demonstratively to be far more influential on the polar-ward field teleconnectors.  And, unfortunately, contrary to your [apparent] thinking, the -EPO and -NAO are highly correlated to cold delivery to middle latitudes. 

do you get what i am saying??? there *is* a way to determine state in the future but the way to go about this is not by looking at the past (unless you restrict the data to maybe 5-10 yrs, but even then, things are now changing so quickly, and past weather should only be used as an aid to guidance, not an end-all...) ...  funny. as i've just labored to parse through every bit of your content and compare it as objectively as I can to conventional education, wisdom.... a-priori, just damn being talented in this field of science... I can honestly say that you're not scoring a very high grade with here.  I wouldn't fail you - because there is some usefulness and studied papers that show some correlation to SSTA and land/sea snow/ice and so forth.  ...but your channel of causality is off and demonstrates not really understanding the total atmospheric dynamic during the course of this recent discussion; partially evidenced in that you're placing too much emphasis on factors that are often BECAUSE of atmospheric stressing, not causing it... They feed-back some once in place...  The PDO thermocline is a classic example... the water in the N-NE arc of the Pacific will be warmly anomalous despite a longer term PDO trend (sometimes) do to stressing of wind on the water surface...  That's just one in a myriad of examples.

 

[qr7121]

i appreciate your thoughtful response, Tip, even though i may disagree with just about everything.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

He can flip out about indices all he wants, but in order to get cold into the Northeast especially we need the ridge in the right place out west. It can't just pop anywhere over the Arctic. So the acronyms probably aren't going anywhere.

Still laughing, why bother Chris, you need to go back to school to learn somethings. Be careful hurt snowflakes need safe spaces. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Massive cold shot late next week on Euro. Wild run to run changes. 

 

That sure is ugly warmth for a good chunk of the US and Canada, ick.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Still laughing, why bother Chris, you need to go back to school to learn somethings. Be careful hurt snowflakes need safe spaces. 

Where's Kevin to bring some sanity to the discussion?

I know I shouldn't bother, but these indices that shall not be named do describe the atmosphere in a snapshot. The forecasts of them are only as good as NWP, and certainly that's where human input like diagnosing how snow and ice inputs will affect models can help long range forecasts. They have use and skill, just like loss of sea ice has feedback into the system too.

I'm just going out on a limb and saying loss of sea ice = blocking = snow covered continents is overly simplistic the same way he's arguing acronyms are overly simplistic.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

i appreciate your thoughtful response, Tip, even though i may disagree with just about everything.

Well ... you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make 'im drink I suppose. 

we can agree that you disagree with us ... but, just be warned, that "us" encompasses a pretty large manifold of source ranging from ...pretty much everyone, to all geophysical sciences and back...   

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

That sure is ugly warmth for a good chunk of the US and Canada, ick.

nov 87

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Right now, we're effectively experiencing a regime not entirely dissimilar from portions of last winter, during which, periods of heightened angular momentum induced robust jet extensions and consequently a flood of warmth throughout North America, in light of scarce downstream blocking. However, this will be a transient (relatively) pulse of Nino-like conditions. The jet will eventually retract as lower orbit AAM/GWO develop post mid November, which should chill the N Plains, I agree with Scott above. At this point, other variables are muting the mean upper divergence signal in the W PAC Maritimes, but that should manifest more strongly in terms of the tropospheric reflection, I think, by the latter part of November and thereafter. With all that being said, I'm not confident that any protracted cold envelops the E US at this point, through week 3 at least. I'm more confident that we'll see the response, especially initially, in the Rockies and N Plains. ENSO SST's have been running on the chilly side in the central ENSO regions; however, the oceanic-atmospheric coupling has been meager thus far. I believe that will change as well down the road.

Your winter outlook will be above normal...all I needed to read.

 

I said last week that the big pattern changed would probably end up taking hold closer to December, than mid November. Those AK lows are never in a hurry to move out....reminds me a bit of 2001, but I'm not saying it will last all winter.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

He can flip out about indices all he wants, but in order to get cold into the Northeast especially we need the ridge in the right place out west. It can't just pop anywhere over the Arctic. So the acronyms probably aren't going anywhere.

Does the warm ground in autumn affect the ability for snowpack to grow especially if there's ice-free warm waters in the Arctic?

<ducking>

[qr7121]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Does the warm ground in autumn affect the ability for snowpack to grow especially if there's ice-free warm waters in the Arctic?

<ducking>

maybe very briefly but outside of permafrost the heat probably escapes very quickly... the most significant impact re: land besides albedo feedbacks would be insulating the permafrost/accelerating that ongoing melt during winter

[Ginx snewx]

Now thats a horse of a different color

[Sugarloaf1989]

52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

nov 87

It snowed on my birthday that year.

[CoastalWx]

That was a bit of a reversal to the general trend of GOAK low the last few days. Hopefully it holds. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

It snowed on my birthday that year.

strange month 5 double digit positive days and 6 double digit negatives, overall month was -1 to -3

[qr7121]

PS. I have another kind of crazy idea that may be plausible.

In the vein of getting to the root cause behind indices, I think getting behind ENSO is crucial -- not correlating conditions/etc, but actually understanding why we see bursts of warm or cold water form in various locations.

I have noticed that the +warm anomalies off the US West Coast have increased basically inverse compared to annual precip/snowpack (i.e., the drier the west gets, the less snow there is, the warmer the runoff is. and the higher the snowline climbs, the warmer surface airmasses are as well). The reason behind this forcing is the thermal expansion ongoing in our atmosphere thanks to +++GHG emissions, which force the upper bound of the atmosphere higher, weakening the jet stream in the process while also *increasing* the impact of topography on weather (hence why we are increasingly seeing "stuck" weather patterns and repeating events -- TX floods, NE snowstorms, etc). 

***if*** this is legit then I think that one crucial region to look at for predicting "ENSO" is the Andes, and their snowpack. i am beginning to suspect that as warm water builds up in ENSO regions thanks to a lack of runoff/warmer runoff from the Andes, the additional accumulation of oceanic heat eventually sets off epic snows across the Andes that bring the snowline down, while also increasing runoff, and simultaneously lowering the temperature of the runoff. that in turn triggers runoff of ++++anomalously cool water that spread westward across the Pacific, resulting in what we know as "Nina". 

i should note another observation that would tend to support the above; typically Ninas or Ninos strengthen most dramatically in whichever direction in August-November, which coincides with the end of winter in the Southern Hemisphere... i.e., when the Andes are at peak discharge.

http://www.geocriologia.com.ar/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2013_MasiokasEtAl_ClimateVulnerabChapter.pdf

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Your winter outlook will be above normal...all I needed to read.

 

I said last week that the big pattern changed would probably end up taking hold closer to December, than mid November. Those AK lows are never in a hurry to move out....reminds me a bit of 2001, but I'm not saying it will last all winter.

 

I was mainly referring to the fact that the SOI, AAM, GWO have resembled a background state more similar to Nino conditions recently - and that, eventually (probably by the third week of November) the atmospheric behavior will more closely coincide with the cooler tropical SST's. Right now, the most La Nina-esque indicator we have is the sub normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. I think we'll see more consistently positive SOI dailies with an AAM/GWO tendency more Nina-like later this month. That's essentially what I meant by the post, and not related to anything pertaining to above/below normal (As clearly we can have a cold or warm winter depending upon the behavior of other variables, such as the high latitude indicators).

[Isotherm]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 

Nice explanation. Most of what he's arguing is very much contradictory. Ignore analogs, and indices (which, by the way, do have cause-effect explanations -- they're not examined in a vacuum), while concomitantly ascribing NAO oscillations to alterations in sea ice, SST's, and snow cover. To me, he's essentially trolling under the guise of more "eloquent" language (even though said language is illogical and unsubstantiated by any empirical evidence).

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

Nice explanation. Most of what he's arguing is very much contradictory. Ignore analogs, and indices (which, by the way, do have cause-effect explanations -- they're not examined in a vacuum), while concomitantly ascribing NAO oscillations to alterations in sea ice, SST's, and snow cover. To me, he's essentially trolling under the guise of more "eloquent" language (even though said language is illogical and unsubstantiated by any empirical evidence).

Yeah there are those out there engaged in trolling as an artistic endeavor ...as though they actually think they're being subversive about what their tact really is and we don't detect it. I'm sure we've all experienced that multiple times over the years. 

It could be that in fact yesterday I did use the word troll, or perhaps it was earlier today. It is also possible that he really believes that the atmosphere is completely controlled by the surface of the earth and attributes therein.

This is open to the public. I'm not so sure the filtering for account submission is all that rigorous as it used to be back before this became A moneymaking device via ad revenues. They make their money by #s of clicks.

I don't mean to cast aspersions at that so please nobody feel like they have to defend anything. It's just that with increased bandwidth and usership sans very rigorous screening of backgrounds - let's face it we really don't know these people. They could be completely one flew over the cuckoo's nest. 

Either way i'm done giving that person the benefit of the doubt with any responses. 

[J Paul Gordon]

The best part of all this was reading the intelligent met replies. I'm actually starting to understand.

Like Kevin's map. Going to Oklahoma next week when it will be cooling down to about 8-10 F above normal from 25+. Meantime its looking decent here for below normal to normal. Almost looks like we'll have a bit of winter in December, too. Nice break from the last couple years. Maybe Feb 2015 redux in terms of being BN here while a lot of other places are mild (certainly not in terms of magnitude of cold and snow...just cooler than much of the continent)?

[OceanStWx]

53 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

The best part of all this was reading the intelligent met replies. I'm actually starting to understand.

Like Kevin's map. Going to Oklahoma next week when it will be cooling down to about 8-10 F above normal from 25+. Meantime its looking decent here for below normal to normal. Almost looks like we'll have a bit of winter in December, too. Nice break from the last couple years. Maybe Feb 2015 redux in terms of being BN here while a lot of other places are mild (certainly not in terms of magnitude of cold and snow...just cooler than much of the continent)?

Who doesn't love a good met pig pile.

For the record La Nina isn't really a result of cold, Andean runoff but upwelling. Unlike the ground temps around Stowe the deep ocean is actually quite cold. So strong trades promote pushing water away from land and cold water moves up from the deep ocean to replace it.

[CoastalWx]

 

 

 

weeklies show how bad of a product they can be. Completely underestimated the GOAK low a couple of weeks ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro still hitting cold hard later next week with deep trough

[CoastalWx]

Days and days of ZZZZZZZssssss.

[weathafella]

Heading to Southern California Monday and Tel Aviv the following Tuesday night.  Returning on thanksgiving morning when I will official put my winter goggles on.  Patience everyone!