Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

what is the EPO? why did it drive the pattern? do you see what i am saying?

the EPO is symptomatic of something larger at work (Hadley Cell interaction with weakened/split polar vortex + open water up north)... it is *not* a driver in itself, rather an index based on arbitrary calculations. it is important to identify the symptoms behind the patterns instead of the results within a bounded area... 

There isn't anything arbitrary about it. It is an objective way of measuring the atmosphere at a given time in order to correlate to downstream influences. 

You're right that diagnosing the causes of a pattern can be useful, but a stout ridge on the West Coast can just as easily be caused by latent heat release of an extra-tropical cyclone as it can from warming Arctic regions.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

i would posit that the Pac jet is also largely dictated by Arctic sea ice and resulting snowfalls across the continents... in our current case we have a very warm Arctic surrounded by some record-cold air in Siberia etc right now. the gradient (very cold continents + relatively warm sea above and to the east) results in a very strong jet stream in certain areas, specifically the NPAC at the moment... obviously the tropics are also involved in this, but i highly suspect that the relationship between sea ice + snowcover is the primary driver behind the strength of the Pacific jet

I suspect you are wrong.  You are giving a vastly simplistic view of the Pacific jet. There are many many more variables that go into all this. MJO, Rossy wave train...etc.  Frankly, the Pacific cares very little about Arctic sea ice. 

[qr7121]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I suspect you are wrong.  You are giving a vastly simplistic view of the Pacific jet. There are many many more variables that go into all this. MJO, Rossy wave train...etc.  Frankly, the Pacific cares very little about Arctic sea ice. 

ok... and i think you are wrong... how can you say the Pac doesn't care about Arctic sea ice? what about the inflow from the Bering into the Arctic in recent yrs, which has disturbed the halocline and resulted in our current predicament?

what about the Sea of Okhotsk? i would go further to posit that ++temp anoms in ENSO region results in Arctic warming/continental cooling/+++sea ice in lower-latitude regions (Hudson Bay, Sea of Okhotsk, Baltic Sea), with the ensuing albedo feedback acting to redistribute accumulated heat and balance the system.

we can name Nino and Nina but people still haven't proven exactly why they come about, bc if they did then we would be able to forecast ENSO to some reliable degree (which we really can't do at the moment despite all the bluster to the contrary)... again i want to get into the *why* behind patterns, not the end result.

re: previous page EPO discussion with Will/ORH -- i think your shift in language is the first step towards better forecasting... it is better to say that because of X there is additional ridging over Alaska/Beaufort which ultimately pushes into Greenland, then forcing the GAK airmasses SW into the NE US/NW ATL... vs saying there is a -EPO or +EPO. the acronym has no significance, describing the mechanism behind the action is what is most important. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I suspect you are wrong.  You are giving a vastly simplistic view of the Pacific jet. There are many many more variables that go into all this. MJO, Rossy wave train...etc.  Frankly, the Pacific cares very little about Arctic sea ice. 

Never mind thermal wind properties. If you reverse or weaken the temp gradient by warming the Arctic should thereby weaken the thermal wind (since it will move air from high (warm) to low (cold) pressure and then turn right (east in the NHem) with Coriolis).

[qr7121]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There isn't anything arbitrary about it. It is an objective way of measuring the atmosphere at a given time in order to correlate to downstream influences. 

You're right that diagnosing the causes of a pattern can be useful, but a stout ridge on the West Coast can just as easily be caused by latent heat release of an extra-tropical cyclone as it can from warming Arctic regions.

yes there is... the boxes themselves are arbitrary... who decided on the lat/lon for the calculations?

and to your 2nd point, you are also kind of correct... those causes are kind of the same though? in that, increasingly, ET cyclones transport vast amounts of heat poleward, depositing them into the Arctic, and encouraging ridging along the way and then afterwards as well

[qr7121]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Never mind thermal wind properties. If you reverse or weaken the temp gradient by warming the Arctic should thereby weaken the thermal wind (since it will move air from high (warm) to low (cold) pressure and then turn right (east in the NHem) with Coriolis).

e.g. how you get storms like Sandy... another symptom of our failing climate :*(

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I suspect you are wrong.  You are giving a vastly simplistic view of the Pacific jet. There are many many more variables that go into all this. MJO, Rossy wave train...etc.  Frankly, the Pacific cares very little about Arctic sea ice. 

 

Yeah. The main driver of the PAC jet is the SST gradient between the tropics and the north Pacific. If the loss of sea ice is causing more ridging over AK, we won't know for at least a decade or two longer to get a better sample. The rapid decline of sea ice in the 2000s certainly didn't produce such a pattern, if anything we saw less ridging than decades like the 1980s...we've only very recently seen several winters with big ridging up there. But using a sample size of about 5 winters is probably not very useful.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, qr7121 said:

yes there is... the boxes themselves are arbitrary... who decided on the lat/lon for the calculations?

and to your 2nd point, you are also kind of correct... those causes are kind of the same though? in that, increasingly, ET cyclones transport vast amounts of heat poleward, depositing them into the Arctic, and encouraging ridging along the way and then afterwards as well

No. Arctic sea ice has nothing to do with the ET cyclones that form in the North Pacific. They may transport heat north into Arctic regions, but they aren't forming because of a lack of sea ice.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

...areas not covered by sea ice allow significantly more heat/moisture far deeper into the Arctic vs previous years and latent heat release during winter (from the millions of extra KM2 of open water this yr) results in 500mb blocking. blocking is not random, it is a symptom of the dying NPole ice cap and an inability for the pole to resolve heat passing overhead. 

since SSTs up north are well beyond the previous record this year, and we are already seeing NHEM snowcover blow past (or at least approach) previous all-time records, i think rolling the current look forward results in record blocking across both the Beaufort/Chukchi as well as the Barents/Kara... i.e. the two most favored regions to result in additional NHEM +++snowcover anomalies. 

excuse me if this seems blunt ... but, it seems you're getting ahead of yourself there. 

there's a lot of big leaping conclusion about that statement that's not really scienced, and in fact, what science there is presently/clad/empirically proven is that blocking modes in the atmosphere have other much stronger forcing mechanisms than the land/sea surfaces, which is a comparatively smaller influence when scaling known variables.  

it's an intriguing hypothesis that the abundance (presently) of snow cover is causally linked to decreased ice caps, but it is the first I have heard of that and none of the reputable sources releasing press demonstrating that relationship per peer review.  it may in fact be the case that increased evaporation in the ambient polar region from off polar sea-sources is the culprit for the snow deposition rates - i'm just saying that i haven't heard that until just now.  can you site a source for that comparison?  

also, all that said, none of that explains why PNA and NAO does or doesn't correlated to distribution of middle latitude temperatures anomalies.  i can tell you that it is NOT true that the NAO has "stopped" correlating because of any root physics traceable back to the ice-cap variance. it sounds like a big leap to say 'negative ice-cap' --> mean PNA/NAO stops correlating. 

[qr7121]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

No. Arctic sea ice has nothing to do with the ET cyclones that form in the North Pacific. They may transport heat north into Arctic regions, but they aren't forming because of a lack of sea ice.

idk about that... a lack of sea ice allows the Hadley Cell to shift further N which opens the door to more W'erlies across the entirety of the Pac... that is why we have seen an unprecedented amount of CPAC cane activity past 2 yrs

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

yes there is... the boxes themselves are arbitrary... who decided on the lat/lon for the calculations?

and to your 2nd point, you are also kind of correct... those causes are kind of the same though? in that, increasingly, ET cyclones transport vast amounts of heat poleward, depositing them into the Arctic, and encouraging ridging along the way and then afterwards as well

They were chosen because they depicted regions that have a large impact on downstream sensible wx. We know that huge ridging up in the Yukon/BC (and subsequent low out south fo the Aleutians) produces a particular pattern of cold weather in the central and eastern U.S. The pattern was named the PNA (Pacific North America) pattern. They didn't randomly throw darts at a map and call it that...they chose an area that has a high correlation to certain types of weather in the U.S.

 

Therefore, it wasn't arbitrary.

[qr7121]

i will add that if Hansen is correct the only way to get those huge purples across the NATL is through +++sea ice in lower-latitude regions... and i think the maps are missing the impact of the additional snowcover that a broiling Arctic creates. long story short, this winter is going to be brutal.

while it is not explicitly stated, IMO the practical implication of AMOC shutdown + Greenland melt is that our current ice age is far from over, and in fact, we are about to begin witnessing a dramatic expansion of snowcover across all continental landmasses, the magnitude of which will increase in proportion to continued Arctic heating...  the first places to see this will be the NE/New England, Quebec, NW Europe, and NE Siberia (IMO). 

 

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

e.g. how you get storms like Sandy... another symptom of our failing climate :*(

I didn't know that climate could fail.  I know it changes but didn't realize it could fail.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

ok... and i think you are wrong... how can you say the Pac doesn't care about Arctic sea ice? what about the inflow from the Bering into the Arctic in recent yrs, which has disturbed the halocline and resulted in our current predicament?

what about the Sea of Okhotsk? i would go further to posit that ++temp anoms in ENSO region results in Arctic warming/continental cooling/+++sea ice in lower-latitude regions (Hudson Bay, Sea of Okhotsk, Baltic Sea), with the ensuing albedo feedback acting to redistribute accumulated heat and balance the system.

we can name Nino and Nina but people still haven't proven exactly why they come about, bc if they did then we would be able to forecast ENSO to some reliable degree (which we really can't do at the moment despite all the bluster to the contrary)... again i want to get into the *why* behind patterns, not the end result.

re: previous page EPO discussion with Will/ORH -- i think your shift in language is the first step towards better forecasting... it is better to say that because of X there is additional ridging over Alaska/Beaufort which ultimately pushes into Greenland, then forcing the GAK airmasses SW into the NE US/NW ATL... vs saying there is a -EPO or +EPO. the acronym has no significance, describing the mechanism behind the action is what is most important. 

Because those are likely very small in comparison to what drives the Pacific. It has been shown that the tropicsl forcing in 13-14 and 14-15 was a big driver in the ridging from AK into western NAMR. Are you trying to say the arctic melting drove this?

[CoastalWx]

Broiling arctic?

[qr7121]

Just now, mreaves said:

I didn't know that climate could fail.  I know it changes but didn't realize it could fail.

if a huge percentage of global population is about to become homeless due to rising seas, while at the same time global agriculture is simultaneously being devastated by droughts/floods, i would call that a climate failure... at least for maintaining our current civilization in any shape or form... idk maybe im being unreasonable but the fact is that Miami was +2' vs NAVD about 20 times this past October and that the practical impact of sea level rise is already accelerating at the rate of 1 foot per decade

[qr7121]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Broiling arctic?

yes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwRGdMbVMAA7UCc.jpg:large

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, qr7121 said:

if a huge percentage of global population is about to become homeless due to rising seas, while at the same time global agriculture is simultaneously being devastated by droughts/floods, i would call that a climate failure... at least for maintaining our current civilization in any shape or form... idk maybe im being unreasonable but the fact is that Miami was +2' vs NAVD about 20 times this past October and that the practical impact of sea level rise is already accelerating at the rate of 1 foot per decade

This is really a discussion for the CC forum, but there is nothing in the mainstream literature that supports such a claim.

[qr7121]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is really a discussion for the CC forum, but there is nothing in the mainstream literature that supports such a claim.

ok how about this graph

or go here

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_movie.shtml

 

and hit 'sea level' and monthly and watch the maps... it is clear the Gulf Stream has been shutting down since 2007 and the anomalies off the coast are getting worse every yr now

 

while this is related to CC it also relates to our winter... there is a huge area of unprecedented warm water off the coast... i.e. energy for multiple HECS this winter

 

[ORH_wxman]

You're using a localized short sample to make a longer term conclusion.

[qr7121]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You're using a localized short sample to make a longer term conclusion.

no I am not... last yr was almost as bad for as long, and we are probably going to see a repeat come high tides in November... did you bother rolling the loop I linked above?

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

yes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwRGdMbVMAA7UCc.jpg:large

Eh, maybe baking is closer to reality?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, qr7121 said:

i do not think Canada will lose its snowpack... maybe a little bit but the +depth anomalies are significant and models always underestimate cold in Quebec, which is the most important source region for the NE. in fact i would suspect that even with the +anomalies, we see snowcover continue deepening over Quebec.

Welcome to the board.

Just out of curiosity..who are you..and do you live in the northeast?

[CoastalWx]

Anyways well back on planet Earth, the GEFS continues the sweet looking retrogression to a -EPO look after mid month. That would sure be nice.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Anyways well back on planet Earth, the GEFS continues the sweet looking retrogression to a -EPO look after mid month. That would sure be nice.

Arbitrary.

[qr7121]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Arbitrary.

maybe explain why it is showing a "-EPO" instead of dismissing me... i guess none of the maps i posted above are of earth??? lol #denierboard

[SJonesWX]

isn't there a climate change sub forum? we should probably be talking about November in new england in this thread.

[qr7121]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

isn't there a climate change sub forum? we should probably be talking about November in new england in this thread.

if you don't think that a reduction in sea ice relates to the upcoming winter, .....

climate change affects practical wx, this is not a conversation of whether CC is real or not, it is an analysis of its impacts on our sensible wx which are undeniable

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, qr7121 said:

maybe explain why it is showing a "-EPO" instead of dismissing me... i guess none of the maps i posted above are of earth??? lol #denierboard

Probably from tropical forcing moving back to maritime continent as well as other short term features causing the GOAK low to retrograde.  This isn't a denier board, but you sound like the classic climate scientist who tries to relate everything to AGW, but has no clue how weather works in the short term. 

[qr7121]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Probably from tropical forcing moving back to maritime continent as well as other short term features causing the GOAK low to retrograde.  This isn't a denier board, but you sound like the classic climate scientist who tries to relate everything to AGW, but has no clue how weather works in the short term. 

maybe GOAK low is retrograding bc of the hugely anomalous Siberian snowpack and not tropical forcing... these statements from the mets in this thread are being taken as facts; if these indices are so reliable then how come everyone sucks so badly at seasonal forecasting?

it is disturbing to see suggestions for improvements/considerations to seasonal forecasting being dismissed bc they don't conform to the existing faulty way of predicting things... just saying