Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Miller B after Miller B on the Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty deep trough in the southwest US in the 11-15 day. Might actually be a few over runners somewhere in the northeast at that time. Yup looks like a totally different pattern with the -EPO developing and MUCH colder air moving into the Plains. A SWFE wouldn't surprise me. You are thinking we have a threat in the Dec 3-6 window, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Winners win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 EPS is storm after storm. What a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 22 minutes ago, nzucker said: Yup looks like a totally different pattern with the -EPO developing and MUCH colder air moving into the Plains. A SWFE wouldn't surprise me. You are thinking we have a threat in the Dec 3-6 window, right? Id rather look at the overall pattern for now. Notice I said "northeast." It could be overrunning for ROC and 64/59 for SNE at the same time. It's too far away to get that cute. I just like the overall look and lack of NAMR blow torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Id rather look at the overall pattern for now. Notice I said "northeast." It could be overrunning for ROC and 64/59 for SNE at the same time. It's too far away to get that cute. I just like the overall look and lack of NAMR blow torch. The storm on Nov 30/Dec 1 has the highest cutter potential I think. Trough axis is really far west and a potent shortwave is showing up on all major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I like it genuinely when Scott N. says its getting interesting, because for the most part he is dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I agree Nzucker, that looks like the most cutter potential, but the GFS wants it to develop into a miller B storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, nzucker said: The storm on Nov 30/Dec 1 has the highest cutter potential I think. Trough axis is really far west and a potent shortwave is showing up on all major models. Yeah things can still change given we're 10 days out but it's not a good look as of right now. Hopefully it trends flatter into a more overrunning/Miller B setup but I'm not holding my breath on that right now. For SNE the best potential is def Nov 26-27 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I agree Will that looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Id rather look at the overall pattern for now. Notice I said "northeast." It could be overrunning for ROC and 64/59 for SNE at the same time. It's too far away to get that cute. I just like the overall look and lack of NAMR blow torch. I'd say it's more likely ROC is 64 while we snow to ice in that pattern . With neggy NAO and Epo.. we are fairly protected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Will be interesting to see where the -AO sets up and the +PNA sets up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 This picture illustrates our two pacific shortwaves in question for this week's weather, the first one is for Thanksgiving Day and Night and the second shortwave is for later Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This picture illustrates our two pacific shortwaves in question for this week's weather, the first one is for Thanksgiving Day and Night and the second shortwave is for later Saturday and Sunday. No you cant see our weekend one on that image yet. Those are both associated with any Tday threat. They kind of dampen out as they approach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Oh ok thanks for the clarification Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 NAM is south with the surface low primary over Chicago instead of central MI now could mean a colder setup for the Thanksgiving Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 NAM is colder air building into the Canadian Prairies and into the central Plains states by 84 hours, could be a sign of SWFEs in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I agree Nzucker, that looks like the most cutter potential, but the GFS wants it to develop into a miller B storm. There could be a lot of redevelopers with shortwaves getting forced under the Hudson Bay block. The 18z GFS shows this with the Nov 28th storm as the SLP tries to gain latitude and cut but ends up being a snowstorm. Not sure of the validity of the weekend threat. 18z wants to develop a full on coastal instead of a Norlun but wave spacing may dictate otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I actually think Nzucker, that with the weaker TDAY storm and energy we could have better wave spacing for the weekend threat coastal nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 15 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM is colder air building into the Canadian Prairies and into the central Plains states by 84 hours, could be a sign of SWFEs in the future. Hard to tell at this early stage but the Dec 4-6 event could be a SWFE with strong troughing in the Desert Southwest and Arctic high pressure in the Plains. Sort of a banana high look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I actually think Nzucker, that with the weaker TDAY storm and energy we could have better wave spacing for the weekend threat coastal nor'easter. Looking a bit more closely, at 96 on the 18z GFS, there's a weak shortwave over PA with much more consolidated energy near the NE/KS border. By 132, the second shortwave has tracked east and blows up a new coastal. I'd really like the first weak shortwave to be weak and run way out ahead of the main system. There's little chance for the NYC area with the first event. BUT if the initial shortwave drags a weak front through and moves out of the way quickly, the 2nd s/w can dig and tap into deeper cold as the HB block intensifies. Much better chance with the wknd storm than TG. Interesting thing is the TG/weekend stuff becomes the 50/50 low for the major Nov 28th threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I agree Nzucker, I think the 27/28th system has a chance to bring accumulating snow, not for the coastline but maybe for BOS to WOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 TGiving is now a weak, cold system with some snow/ice.. Maybe we can lay down a mantle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Just woke up...lol trying to get close to Boston time since we arrive back st 5:30AM Thanksgiving Day. Of course the first thing I do is check conds back home and lo and behold BOS is reporting light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Time to fire up December... https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49252-december-patternforecast-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Definitely a little band of accumulating snow in the euro for Tday morning across a chunk of interior SNE. Perhaps even to BOS though temps more marginal on coast. Nothing big but an inch or two wouldn't be a shock. It looks like most guidance is cold enough. It's just a matter of qpf. GFS focuses the band of qpf more pike-northward into CNE so we'll have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 turkeys white this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definitely a little band of accumulating snow in the euro for Tday morning across a chunk of interior SNE. Perhaps even to BOS though temps more marginal on coast. Nothing big but an inch or two wouldn't be a shock. It looks like most guidance is cold enough. It's just a matter of qpf. GFS focuses the band of qpf more pike-northward into CNE so we'll have to watch it. For two days in a row, I'm finding redemption in posts by Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Trough digging further south this run on the 12z GFS for fri-sat, Should be a better run for snow up in CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Trough digging further south this run on the 12z GFS for fri-sat, Should be a better run for snow up in CNE/NNE Nice hit there. Lets get it out of inverted middle finger mode and into cyclogenesis mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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