HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 We need the Fi-yaaaaahhhh pic that Eric made with all of the weenies coming out of the cannon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 2 hours ago, qr7121 said: this is going to be the most brutal winter most of humanity has ever seen mark my words Interesting theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 If we are going to see the most brutal winter ever, the +PNA needs to remain dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, qr7121 said: if you think i am crazy just wait til march and throw it back in my face... i will gladly be wrong, in fact i hope i am wrong, but i am looking at the snowcover anomalies, the temp anomalies, and the water vapor up north... and winter is coming... Now that's a forecast that seems to have a higher chance at verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 CPC teleconnections show a pattern change towards the mid month period with a neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO. Not conducive towards a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Models don't show the CPC pattern evolving in the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, qr7121 said: ...i lived through 12/15 in NYC when we were warmer than an average April and averaged warmer than the coldest Mays... the same winter we saw the biggest snowstorm ever which i correctly predicted would happen... this year we have seen horrific events all over the place; did you miss the wildfires that consumed entire towns across Canada/Siberia? what about Baton Rouge? or the Carolina floods? or Miami sinking into the ocean? or the CA drought worsening? last Christmas I was in DC... we had a 22 degree halo -- it was 75 degrees xmas eve and there was literally a tropical phenomenon at 39N that night, in the dead of winter. i did not say the entire forum is full of deniers -- but i definitely think that you are the pack's ringleader. What does this forum deny? You aren't making any sense man, and I'm trying to read today's posts as unbiased as possible. You are literally just slinging mud around with no real "point" to make. Are you trying to say there's high variability in climate? If so I think most would agree. I would also advise against statements like "Do you know what an anomaly is?" or "Do you know how plants grow?"... it doesn't further whatever vague point you are trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What does this forum deny? You aren't making any sense man, and I'm trying to read today's posts as unbiased as possible. You are literally just slinging mud around with no real "point" to make. Are you trying to say there's high variability in climate? If so I think most would agree. I would also advise against statements like "Do you know what an anomaly is?" or "Do you know how plants grow?"... it doesn't further whatever vague point you are trying to make. Easy on the snowflake he might melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 56 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: CPC teleconnections show a pattern change towards the mid month period with a neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO. Not conducive towards a cold winter. James ... you keep doing this. i realize you mean well and I'm totally buckin' for ya, but: "...Not conducive towards a cold winter..." does not logically follow from, "...mid month period with a neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO.." I dropped an egg this morning and it didn't break; therefore, i'm winning in the poker tournament in Vegas next week - it's an amazing correlation. That's one thing, but these teleconnector progs outside of 6 or 7 days aren't really dependable ... case in point, Feb 2014 mega month featured D10 EPO recovery to positive the whole way, but ...heh, that index, NEVER was positive when said D10s came to pass. Not that anyone asked, but folks, I'm still thinking climo/analogs combined with the D7-10 range weighty signal are likely to team up on the pattern and we're just beginning to see the extended operational versions across the board, regrograding heights from the 35 N/90W back toward the Great Basin. Details are negotiable at this range (of course) but I'm still above medium confidence that troughing over eastern N/A gets more aggreessive before we even end this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 That is what I am saying John, what the CPC numbers are saying and what the models are going with in the next 15 days aren't lining up. Instead they are opposite, the models are still showing a +PNA regime passed 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: CPC teleconnections show a pattern change towards the mid month period with a neutral PNA, positive NAO and positive AO. Not conducive towards a cold winter. It's not even winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Interesting theory.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 5, 2016 Author Share Posted November 5, 2016 nice wintry run of the 18z GFS there ..heh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Definitely going to be snows in the air at this time next weekend. Pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 5 hours ago, powderfreak said: What does this forum deny? You aren't making any sense man, and I'm trying to read today's posts as unbiased as possible. You are literally just slinging mud around with no real "point" to make. Are you trying to say there's high variability in climate? If so I think most would agree. I would also advise against statements like "Do you know what an anomaly is?" or "Do you know how plants grow?"... it doesn't further whatever vague point you are trying to make. the forum denies CC... this thread makes that blatantly obvious... i am saying the variability we experience as "seasons" is beginning to occur all yr long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, qr7121 said: the forum denies CC... this thread makes that blatantly obvious... i am saying the variability we experience as "seasons" is beginning to occur all yr long. Your just trolling, no one here denies cc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Your just trolling, no one here denies cc ORHWX does, so do the other mets in this thread, they've made that known the past several pages... PS if you dismiss the importance of apostrophes it is difficult to take your words srsly... just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 31 minutes ago, qr7121 said: ORHWX does, so do the other mets in this thread, they've made that known the past several pages... PS if you dismiss the importance of apostrophes it is difficult to take your words srsly... just saying Judging by the lazy punctuation above, I don't think you should be calling anyone out on issues of grammar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Most people here agree on climate change, arguments ensue over the extent/ rate of change and the tendency among extremists to link all severe weather events and extreme weather to cc. This is a pattern thread. qr is being over-the- top trolling and frankly annoying. You're obviously a smart dude. You probably have more technical knowledge than me in certain areas but your personal decorum has left much to be desired thus far. Anyways, welcome to the board and I wish you well. Hopefully we can turn this back to an actual November pattern discussion without all the trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 thank you. i do not want to get personal or mean. let's get back on topic and i apologize if anyone was offended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 7 hours ago, qr7121 said: if you think i am crazy just wait til march and throw it back in my face... i will gladly be wrong, in fact i hope i am wrong, but i am looking at the snowcover anomalies, the temp anomalies, and the water vapor up north... and winter is coming... Nik, I'm on record for a huge winter. I'm with you here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 hour ago, qr7121 said: ORHWX does, so do the other mets in this thread, they've made that known the past several pages... PS if you dismiss the importance of apostrophes it is difficult to take your words srsly... just saying Everything I believe about climate change has support in the peer review literature so not sure exactly how I deny it. The real science and climate change denier is YOU. You have spouted garbage in here that has no support. I mean, do you really expect a bunch of mets to take you seriously when you start saying rising snow levels in the Andes control ENSO? You clearly don't read the scientific literature. Accusing others of being climate deniers doesn't make your unscientific claims magically become valid. Science demands a body of proof...not anecdotes and a bunch of ad hoc arguments with no real empirical evidence. Youve taken this thread off topic enough so any additional drivel is going to be deleted. Feel free to post about November patterns, models, etc but anymore climate change stuff belongs in the CC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nik, I'm on record for a huge winter. I'm with you here. Worst winter known to humanity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Worst winter known to humanity? I'm guessing that has happened during one of the ice ages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: I'm guessing that has happened during one of the ice ages? Ask Nikolai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I'm guessing that has happened during one of the ice ages? Yeah, NYC was under two miles of ice. It was a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I'm guessing that has happened during one of the ice ages? Probably when Toba erupted 74,000 years ago which cause global temps to drop about 8-10C for about a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 Getting clipped with some rain now...whittling away at the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Probably when Toba erupted 74,000 years ago which cause global temps to drop about 8-10C for about a decade. They believe only a few hundred humans survived that event to repopulate the earth, so yeah, great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qr7121 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 bingo bango? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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