October Disco

[CoastalWx]

Okay James.

[CoastalWx]

Tomorrow has bust potential NE MA into NNE while its lower 80s down here. Maine will be in 40s.

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Okay James.

As depicted there..that would be wet snow with temps in mid 30's..Not gonna happen..but that's what it shows on that run

[CoastalWx]

I will say the pattern is such that some areas will likely see their first flakes over the next 10 days or so...NNE most likely.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I agree with you Scott, NNE will see their first flakes within the next 10 days.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern is such that some areas will likely see their first flakes over the next 10 days or so...NNE most likely.

Long range 6z GFS was funny.  Cold and snowy?

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern is such that some areas will likely see their first flakes over the next 10 days or so...NNE most likely.

Nice miller B pattern for u guys. 

[Lava Rock]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nice miller B pattern for u guys. 

Can we get some rain first?

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the pattern is such that some areas will likely see their first flakes over the next 10 days or so...NNE most likely.

GFS is wintery in the day 6-10 frame.  This weekend would bring flakes to NW flow upslope zones.  

 

Then it's just persistent flurries and graupel showers Monday and Tuesday.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is a nice interior elevated snowstorm day 10

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is a nice interior elevated snowstorm day 10

Would benice to see what happens after hour 240.  Did you get to see the next few panels?

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is a nice interior elevated snowstorm day 10

With blocking, this would be good for everyone.NAO and AO dipping at this time.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

With blocking, this would be good for everyone.NAO and AO dipping at this time.

We snow

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like an actual MCS in upstate New York right now

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

We look to get a clipper as the winter scene begins in New England.  SNE might be a tad too warm according to the models, but we have seen this before, if 925mb and 850mb temps are cold enough and we precipitate hard enough maybe we can changeover to snowfall for a time.  This is for October 23rd through 26th

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Latest 00z EURO today has the snowstorm gone, not consistent with it yet, unlike the clipper system that strengthens as it hits water.

[weathafella]

Looks like we go from summer to late autumn in 24 hours Friday night to Saturday night.

[Damage In Tolland]

The warmth is completely over after Friday. We head into late fall/early winter type pattern

[HIPPYVALLEY]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The warmth is completely over after Friday. We head into late fall/early winter type pattern

For a little while.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Looks like we go from summer to late autumn in 24 hours Friday night to Saturday night overnight into Tuesday morning as everyone blew off the clear BD signal for Tuesday....

Yeah, ...good call -

j/k, but wow - the NAM was flirting with it... not this aggressively though.  Tree limbs showing sway and flags wobbling - it's gonna be a neat trick if the models pull of a coup over THAT.   Typically, you see ANY motion to the NE rollin' wind and that 86's any hope for warm fropa.  Exceptionally rare to over come the raw power of cold tucking SW in a statically stable sounding - you need a hydrogen bomb. 

but we'll see...

[Typhoon Tip]

over the last decade to decade and a half we've witnessed a disproportionately higher number, relative to the previous 100 years of climatology, of October's that featured snow of any kind. 

in my four decades of existence on this planet, i've split my time between SW Lower Michigan and Southern New England.  Up through about 2000 to 2002 (more so the latter), snow in October like ...never happened - either in the Lakes or here.  or if so, it was so fleeting and insignificant you almost couldn't notice - I don't think I recall even 'cat's pawing' windshields... November, yeah.   

since about 2002, has it been 12 of those cold sin Octobers?  Something is going on... it's one thing to have fractals repeat patterns and give the illusion of such, only to break down (think the old 20 heads flipping coin trick -), and maybe that's all this is.  however, I've read more than a few different refereed sources that part of climate change is erratic event behavior and general lack of stability.  Who knows but different point -

For all that alone, I don't have a problem with a cold whip pattern like that as we head through this last 10 days of the month. 

However, I am equally willing to play the conservative card and figure for having some of that sneaking through the models' correction schemes and/or exaggerated some.  I wouldn't be shocked if disturbances turn out flatter, and the cold somewhat muted - with the one caveat: should a tropical/Bahama connection set up that's a different chapter. But I also still see that every October, too ...where models seemingly over eager to move the seasonal change onward (anthropomorphic).  Plus, the teleconnectors are flopping a bit with less than coherent signals for either warm or cool - which they should at this time of year... 

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The warmth is completely over after Friday. We head into late fall/early winter type pattern

I know you're stoked about the first upslope snowfall of the season.

GFS would be a wintery Sunday.

[tavwtby]

Hey everyone...back for the winter season, hope everyone had a nice summer....

Weather-wise, the GFS long-range looks like a nice storm hour 360, am I seeing this correctly?

[dendrite]

We shouldn't even allow op models past a week to be discussed here. Either that or make a weenie thread to talk about them in.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We shouldn't even allow op models past a week to be discussed here. Either that or make a weenie thread to talk about them in.

We've already set the precedent that it's ok to start storm specific threads at 12-13 days out .

[CapturedNature]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We shouldn't even allow op models past a week to be discussed here. Either that or make a weenie thread to talk about them in.

Maybe they shouldn't be run if they have no value for discussion. 

Back when I was actively forecasting all we had was 48 hrs on the models and I don't recall people saying that we shouldn't discuss the latter 24 hours of them. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Maybe they shouldn't be run if they have no value for discussion. 

Back when I was actively forecasting all we had was 48 hrs on the models and I don't recall people saying that we shouldn't discuss the latter 24 hours of them. 

 

They def run the models much further past their usefulness these days versus a couple decades ago. Probably mostly a function of computing power...it used to take a long time to run a 48 hour model. The computers got a lot more powerful and faster...but that also meant they were able to run them 4 times per day out to some hour where they were almost useless. They mostly do it for the ensemble suit I think. It's kind of telling that the OP models/ensembles haven't been run out any further than they did a decade ago despite faster computers. All of that increase happened before that. Better off putting that computing power into things like resolution and model dynamics.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

They def run the models much further past their usefulness these days versus a couple decades ago. Probably mostly a function of computing power...it used to take a long time to run a 48 hour model. The computers got a lot more powerful and faster...but that also meant they were able to run them 4 times per day out to some hour where they were almost useless. They mostly do it for the ensemble suit I think. It's kind of telling that the OP models/ensembles haven't been run out any further than they did a decade ago despite faster computers. All of that increase happened before that. Better off putting that computing power into things like resolution and model dynamics.

 

another aspect that occurs to me when this subject matter comes up is usefulness in general.. 

suppose a model is 85% dependable at D11 - so what?   ...what happens next? 

okay, big even on the Hyperbolic Model for 11 days out; does that mean 11 days to talk about it...  egh.   It's like start the thread and walk away for a week.  It almost gets us to the same recourse - why bother.  

i do think, however, if a clad teleconnector/mass field argument is applied, there is experimental merit in using those to predict which cocaine range event isn't merely on drugs.  problem is, there's too little of that substantive analysis and too much cat-calling over model solutions.  

as a side ... some day they will control the momentum states of molecules in the atmosphere and with those futuristic weather controls ... modeling will be a thing of the past - and i suspect these forums fade, too.   

[CapturedNature]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

They def run the models much further past their usefulness these days versus a couple decades ago. Probably mostly a function of computing power...it used to take a long time to run a 48 hour model. The computers got a lot more powerful and faster...but that also meant they were able to run them 4 times per day out to some hour where they were almost useless. They mostly do it for the ensemble suit I think. It's kind of telling that the OP models/ensembles haven't been run out any further than they did a decade ago despite faster computers. All of that increase happened before that. Better off putting that computing power into things like resolution and model dynamics.

That's what I was thinking.  Find a useful range that has a better than random chance of occurring and focus on improving the nearer term.

I could probably find this elsewhere and I know it's OT but what are the prospects for an improved American product?  I thought they had some prospects with new hardware a couple of years ago but I haven't heard about any changes to the physics or resolution.

[CapturedNature]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

another aspect that occurs to me when this subject matter comes up is usefulness in general.. 

suppose a model is 85% dependable at D11 - so what?   ...what happens next? 

okay, big even on the Hyperbolic Model for 11 days out; does that mean 11 days to talk about it...  egh.   It's like start the thread and walk away for a week.  It almost gets us to the same recourse - why bother.  

i do think, however, if a clad teleconnector/mass field argument is applied, there is experimental merit in using those to predict which cocaine range event isn't merely on drugs.  problem is, there's too little of that substantive analysis and too much cat-calling over model solutions.  

as a side ... some day they will control the momentum states of molecules in the atmosphere and with those futuristic weather controls ... modeling will be a thing of the past - and i suspect these forums fade, too.   

It would be nice in general if you knew some event was coming - for planning purposes and honed the details that as the range shortened.  Just think about the ability to schedule workers based on exact start/stop times of weather in different locals.  I think we're a long way off from that but it would have possitive implications for the GP.