40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 5 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: is that good or bad? what did nov 2008 look like? Anything like 12/08, then we're off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 Signal is there for a high QPF energetic system somewhere in the 7-10 day period. Whether Kevs Soueaster or a cold Noreaster, good sigs, Op Euro is close to a whopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 a post that is close to guaranteed NOT to get a reply ... the 12z Euro's wheel-house 4 day vision of warm sector Tuesday, in deep well mixed boundary layer and +15 C at 850 is probably a pretty clear signal for a record warm day - not sure what the actual 'records' for that date are, but that's a damn warm look there. pretty damn warm for Wed, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2016 Author Share Posted October 14, 2016 80 is record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 i may be singularly impressed with this ... i don't know, but the GFSX MOS is 18 F above climo for both Tue and Wed at 78 -a pop ... D's 4 and 5. It's probably good for 82 in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2016 Author Share Posted October 14, 2016 I think most folks are interested in the screaming sou'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: a post that is close to guaranteed NOT to get a reply ... the 12z Euro's wheel-house 4 day vision of warm sector Tuesday, in deep well mixed boundary layer and +15 C at 850 is probably a pretty clear signal for a record warm day - not sure what the actual 'records' for that date are, but that's a damn warm look there. pretty damn warm for Wed, too - CON 85 - 1947 ORH 85 - 1908 PVD 85 - 1908 BOS 82 - 1947 BDL 80 - 1968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: CON 85 - 1947 ORH 85 - 1908 PVD 85 - 1908 BOS 82 - 1947 BDL 80 - 1968 cool! ...well, heh, warm actually .. yeah, not sure we'll pull that out of our arses, but it could be close. hmm. i recall last April where we wondered about a day, and it got to 87 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 Gonna be a cold one tonight. About to dip into the 30s at 7pm. Forecast is for 25-30F. Wife keeps bringing the potted plants inside, I think it's an exercise in futility at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Gonna be a cold one tonight. About to dip into the 30s at 7pm. Forecast is for 25-30F. Wife keeps bringing the potted plants inside, I think it's an exercise in futility at this point in the season. Before it got dark, I picked a ton from my two gardens and covered up some of the greens that should be fine with some help. It's the light levels that are the problem now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 55 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Gonna be a cold one tonight. About to dip into the 30s at 7pm. Forecast is for 25-30F. Wife keeps bringing the potted plants inside, I think it's an exercise in futility at this point in the season. LOL yeah I left a ficus outside a few weeks ago when I was traveling and it went down into the 20's. It's toast. My kale is doing well though, I think that should be OK for a while. Just hit 32F but we've had frost on the deck for a while now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Most areas around me have had a frost, but on a hill and near water....it will be awhile locally in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Long night of freeze. 30/27...dews keep dropping with the temp. We had 8 hours of sub-freezing temps during the last cool down, we'll see how long we get this time. The step-down continues. Core of 850 cold rolls east through NH/ME...spots like BML/HIE/IZG should do real well tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 38.6 I'm nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Just checked, already down to 35.3 here....thinking we might have a hard freeze by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Got to 33.4* so far.....I should probably just miss a freeze. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Was 37.6 when I left for work. Coldest so far this month. Clouds were coming in though, so not sure how much more it would drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Low 80s perhaps either Tuesday or Wednesday. Maybe both days if cold front is slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Got to 33.4* so far.....I should probably just miss a freeze. Oh well. You might be chill champion of the summer months but I've already had multiple mornings in the 20's down the road from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 The screamer is back on Euro late next week! We scream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The screamer is back on Euro late next week! We scream We won't scream. Scooter HP in place and even as it may retreat, Low will go over or east. No scream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 from nadir to acme ... it might be interesting to see the week's temperature graph come this time next Saturday. as Scott mentioned, low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday; which as Brian pointed out at least makes them contenders for record high temperatures. i think if anything climatology is dimming interpretive machine guidance types, though - heating potential looks just about perfect. Light deep layer west southwest wind/well mixed atm post warm fropa importing continental-charged heat .. 850 mb rule--of-thumb all the way to 16 or even 17 C on the 00z operational Euro.. .RH is low in the 700mb slab - all synoptic signs flagging a maxed scenario and relative to season, ...I tell you what, forget that: the 82 F on Tuesday on the 00z GFSX MOS may just flat out prove climo-dimmed even at that. obviously insolation is ever challenged(ing) at this time of year as we near the solar minimum in just a month... but, we've seen 76 in December in similar scenarios that didn't have 16 C at 850 ... so balancing all that out, don't have any compunctions with 85. In July it'd be 92 in the 2-meter. I know. I know. since August 15 folks have "realistically" started looking for snow in the charts ... but, for appreciators of the broader weather experiences, these signals are every bit as intriguing. just bustin' balls but seriously ... man. going from 28 F low this morning to say ...83 F Tuesday afternoon... It's pretty good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: from nadir to acme ... it might be interesting to see the week's temperature graph come this time next Saturday. as Scott mentioned, low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday; which as Brian pointed out at least makes them contenders for record high temperatures. i think if anything climatology is dimming interpretive machine guidance types, though - heating potential looks just about perfect. Light deep layer west southwest wind/well mixed atm post warm fropa importing continental-charged heat .. 850 mb rule--of-thumb all the way to 16 or even 17 C on the 00z operational Euro.. .RH is low in the 700mb slab - all synoptic signs flagging a maxed scenario and relative to season, ...I tell you what, forget that: the 82 F on Tuesday on the 00z GFSX MOS may just flat out prove climo-dimmed even at that. obviously insolation is ever challenged(ing) at this time of year as we near the solar minimum in just a month... but, we've seen 76 in December in similar scenarios that didn't have 16 C at 850 ... so balancing all that out, don't have any compunctions with 85. In July it'd be 92 in the 2-meter. I know. I know. since August 15 folks have "realistically" started looking for snow in the charts ... but, for appreciators of the broader weather experiences, these signals are every bit as intriguing. just bustin' balls but seriously ... man. going from 28 F low this morning to say ...83 F Tuesday afternoon... It's pretty good - Even Wednesday could do it, if the front is slow. More of a downslope westerly component perhaps. That's probably the last of that for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even Wednesday could do it, if the front is slow. More of a downslope westerly component perhaps. That's probably the last of that for a long time. Ha! that was my precise after-thought on that. 'Could be the last time we see that until May if things break right' Which, I'm hearing about climato models flagging a cold/snowy entry to winter ... like a 1995'er. Not sure if that has legs; just what I've heard. And that it may be milder late. Not sure on that either. I think it's all pretty much just fun speculation ... And, even if a given talking point has 'speculative merit' - if you will, it seems the < 1::1 correlation headache that is the weather "deliberately" kicks in as though intending to f-up a good forecast ... 100% of the time. haha. So... even when we're right, the cosmic dildo ensures we're wrong it seems. I don't know, as much as I cringe at the "statistically we're due" argument, it seems it has been a long while since we stayed a snow pack from Novie 20 to X-mass. That's yeah... I know - rare anyway... But, it's not completely outside our pie chart either. I'd say 1 in 8 should... it's been about that I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 actually ... 1 in 15 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We won't scream. Scooter HP in place and even as it may retreat, Low will go over or east. No scream. Majority of Euro Ens favor a noreaster type track. Ens has a very very impressive build up of snow all across Eastern Canada. If that keeps up the calls of early quick start to winter might ring true. Pretty cool to see the first signs of Ens giving NNE snow, its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Tue/Wed are the real torch days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Tue/Wed are the real torch days too. Tuesday looks like an excellent last beach day, should be some good swells too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We won't scream. Scooter HP in place and even as it may retreat, Low will go over or east. No scream. We'll scream.... WAR is still there and will push things way way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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