October Disco

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We've already set the precedent that it's ok to start storm specific threads at 12-13 days out .

Well If I was you I would be discussing today day 4/5 Euro

[CoastalWx]

+WPO for a long time. Probably near to AN averaging into early Novie, although like early next week...can get cold intrusions with cutoff look.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well If I was you I would be discussing today day 4/5 Euro

BTV chucked em far and wide in the AFD:

Snow levels start near summit levels on Friday Night...but as 850mb temps drops below 0c by 06z Saturday and near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday...expect snow levels near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday. These temps profiles support accumulating snow with several inches likely above 2000 feet by 15z Saturday. Favorable upslope winds and moisture continue on Saturday into Sunday with progged 850mb and 925mb temps near 0C...supporting additional accumulating mountain snow. Thinking a few wet snow flakes are possible in the valley floor on Saturday Night...but no accumulation. Given setup and thermal profiles thinking 6 to 10 inches is possible near summits above 3500 feet from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak and over the Northern Dacks...with 3 to 6 inches in midslope areas...and dusting to 3 inches between 1500 and 2000 by Sunday. These early season mountain snow accumulations are always tricky and complex so stay tuned. Unlike earlier potential events this year...this system will have favorable moisture in the snow growth region and better cold air advection on back side.

[Damage In Tolland]

ENS lost blocking..so now it's a matter of when do we retorch..not if.

[wxeyeNH]

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.   Won't this be ironic if the qpf fields work out like this.  Perfect screw job for the drought areas.  Euro says otherwise with much of New England getting benefical rains including SE areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.   Won't this be ironic if the qpf fields work out like this.  Perfect screw job for the drought areas.  Euro says otherwise with much of New England getting benefical rains including SE areas.

Euro's been slowly caving to GFS each run 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, MetHerb said:

It would be nice in general if you knew some event was coming - for planning purposes and honed the details that as the range shortened.  Just think about the ability to schedule workers based on exact start/stop times of weather in different locals.  I think we're a long way off from that but it would have possitive implications for the GP.

don't disagree ... yes, that would be nice.  

But, long way off ... mm..  we might be surprised. not in 10 years, no, but ... i'd say not as far as we think, or as far as the old cliche impresses.  

thing is, technology tends to serve the advent of more sophisticated technologies ... at a geometric rate of expansion.  

some would say that is Moore's Law but that's not really what Gordon was talking about. Gordon Moore was making an observation about how the scaling down of transistor sizes allowed manufacturing to roughly double the number of them that would fit in circuits about every year or so.  He said that would likely continue for the foreseeable future - he'd didn't leave it "as" open ended as just saying 'technology will double every year'

Now, that could surely be construed as doubling computing speed/capacity, and probably so - that is is the origin of present day idea.  

the reason i bring it up is that the earliest forecast models were inextricably dependent on said computing power.  there are molecular scale transistors in R&D ... this would increase the computing capacitance of even the peta-flop supercomputers currently employed by natural science modeling et al, to even more than the "thousand million (10¹⁵) floating-point operations per second"    ... bring operations down to molecular scales would increase capacity several orders of magnitude in any "practical" paradigm of molecular computing capacity (meaning operational and not experimental) - which we are not there yet. but it's attainable goals should we get there before some D-Day clock expiration time ... but that's a scary digression.

Anyway, point is, with increased computing power not yet reached any kind of end point, the current 4 day drop off point from 75 % to almost non-usable will only reach outwards in time.  Day 6 ...eventually 8 (oh man, how many D8 Euro bombs have we flicked off our sleeves over the years) would not longer be ridiculously hard to imagine 75 %.  

at that point, the practicality of actually "needing" a forecast precision at 9 + days out probably gets about as rare a need as the forecast  being correct at that point.  Face it, the truth is, ... no one on here "needs" to know what D10 and D11 carry on of a Euro bomb in the OV looks like over the western Atlantic - that's purely just entertainment.  

my own hypothesis is that weather control technologies will eventually become factorable ... just like flying airplanes would never happen either   gosh forbid.  the allure of 'the wonder of weather' doesn't get so wonderful in a controlled operational dissemination of wind and rain and sun.  

[Lava Rock]

Just looked at the 18Z GFS.   Won't this be ironic if the qpf fields work out like this.  Perfect screw job for the drought areas.  Euro says otherwise with much of New England getting benefical rains including SE areas.

I fully expect to get screwed. What's one more time. One of these days it'll be our turn

[CoastalWx]

That blocking disappeared faster than hair on Kevin's head. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That blocking disappeared faster than hair on Kevin's head. 

A sign of winter it seems

[Damage In Tolland]

Big time wind event Fri nite and Sat with gusts over 50mph. Say goodbye to leaves and possibly a few of your favorite trees

[Ginx snewx]

Based on the Euro wouldn't surprise me to see traces of snow reported at ORH and higher ells of ORH County Saturday night. Berks may actually see accumulations at elevation. Very very robust upslope.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Based on the Euro wouldn't surprise me to see traces of snow reported at ORH and higher ells of ORH County Saturday night. Berks may actually see accumulations at elevation. Very very robust upslope.

The GGEM was ridiculous.

Perfect placement of stacked low to the NE of us.

 

6z GFS less robust but still great upslope signal. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That blocking disappeared faster than hair on Kevin's head. 

not to toot any horns but i mentioned that could if not should happen the other day, ...either in this thread or where ever; a conservative approach was warranted - like when is that not case. 

but more specifically wrt to those ideas of trying to turn the sensible weather "winter like" in the last 10 days.

every year in this recent modern era of modeling we seem to go through this in mid October... the charts suddenly act like it's January 1st.  thickness down 528 dm with 540 contouring clear to the Del Marva.... clippers running along the interface with QPF lop over into the 534 depths... 

yeah, what happens... typical autumn chill with frost on late pumpkins.  

granted, we do have this thing going on where we'eve seen snow in Octobers a scary large number of them since the year 2000 - and to that... perhaps the models do sniff some sort of canvased signal going on in the global physics ..  barring that, the modification of that appeal this go is not surprising either. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The GGEM was ridiculous.

Perfect placement of stacked low to the NE of us.

 

6z GFS less robust but still great upslope signal. 

Hey Scott made a threat specific threat if you want to join in and discuss what looks to be a mjor event

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to toot any horns but i mentioned that could if not should happen the other day, ...either in this thread or where ever; a conservative approach was warranted - like when is that not case. 

but more specifically wrt to those ideas of trying to turn the sensible weather "winter like" in the last 10 days.

every year in this recent modern era of modeling we see to go through this in mid October... the charts suddenly act like it's January 1st.  thickness down 528 dm with 540 contouring clear to the Del Marva.... clippers running along the interface with QPF lop over into the 534 depths... 

yeah, what happens... typical autumn chill with frost on late pumpkins.  

granted, we do have this thing going on where we'eve seen snow in Octobers a scary large number of them since the year 2000 - and to that... perhaps the models do sniff some sort of canvased signal going on in the global physics ..  barring that, the modification of that appeal this go is not surprising either. 

I think the blocking was a forced, temporary thing.....something where if low pressure was not placed properly, it would not materialize. Pretty much what happened I think.  I would sell any cold heading into early November with that +WPO look.

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty cold day 7 Euro

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the blocking was a forced, temporary thing.....something where if low pressure was not placed properly, it would not materialize. Pretty much what happened I think.  I would sell any cold heading into early November with that +WPO look.

nope, me neither (think you meant "wouldn't"?) 

general reader: +WPO tends to transmim the AB phase the North Pacific oscillation -->  neutralized EPO if not making it too flip positive.  That's the correlation transmission...  (as we've written about countless times over the years of forumdom)

Of course, we got the typical weird autumn wave lengths going where the correlations are still not as strong as they will be (in theory) later in deep Novie through early March - still, we're talking betters' recourse here. 

once we get later in December and particularly Jan/Feb, the -EPO it isn't "as" necessary to promote cold getting into the U.S., as +PNA's that bias E can certainly throw up enough western heights to tip the deep layer flow SSE through Sask.  into the Lakes and ...blah blah.  for the purpose of getting 'winter like' this early, however, the -EPO really needs to happen... and not just three or four days of transience either as some temporary Pac perturbations muck with the index.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

nope, me neither (think you meant "wouldn't"?) 

general reader: +WPO tends to transmim the AB phase the North Pacific oscillation -->  neutralized EPO if not making it too flip positive.  That's the correlation transmission...  (as we've written about countless times over the years of forumdom)

Of course, we got the typical weird autumn wave lengths going where the correlations are still not as strong as they will be (in theory) later in deep Novie through early March - still, we're talking betters recourse here. 

once we get later in December it and particularly Jan/Feb, the -EPO isn't "as" necessary to promote a cold getting into the U.S., as +PNA's that bias E can certainly through up enough western heights to tip the deep layer flow SSE through Sask.  into the Lakes and ...blah blah.  for the purpose of getting 'winter like' this early, however, the -EPO really needs to happen... and not just three or four days of transience either as some temporary Pac perturbations muck with the index.

Would sell....as in get rid of or not go for any cold. That's a one eyed monster in the Bering Sea.

Of course one day shots can happen, but that's a pretty boring look on the ensembles for the time being.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Would sell....as in get rid of or not go for any cold. That's a one eyed monster in the Bering Sea.

Of course one day shots can happen, but that's a pretty boring look on the ensembles for the time being.

Must be talking LR because from Fri to Monday in October doesn't look boring. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Must be talking LR because from Fri to Monday in October doesn't look boring. 

Meh. An October rain and snow in the mtns.  Will be chilly to follow for a few days.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. An October rain and snow in the mtns.  Will be chilly to follow for a few days.

We torch back into November?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Meh. An October rain and snow in the mtns.  Will be chilly to follow for a few days.

? what do you expect a hurricane or a snowstorm? 983 is robust. So begins the meh posts.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We torch back into November?

It may not be a torch pattern. Probably near or AN though. Only interesting thing would be if a cutoff can form to our south like the GFS shows.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? what do you expect a hurricane or a snowstorm? 983 is robust. So begins the meh posts.

 

It's October. We get storms. I don't see anything crazy with this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would sell....as in get rid of or not go for any cold. That's a one eyed monster in the Bering Sea.

Of course one day shots can happen, but that's a pretty boring look on the ensembles for the time being.

right - meant the same thing... 

yeah, that's really the sort of subtle them there ...which is to accelerate the wave timing.  seems the Euro and GFS operationals even threaten to roll it all out and get us back to an above normal 850 mb temperature layout ...  of course meaningless to go into details, but the look is definitely changed more toward what you're intimating - sure.  I agree..

the other thing, i'm not so sure there is an outright correlation between the SE ridge and the NE Pac.  i've seen many times in the past, where the flow seems to look like a nicely amplified +PNAP ...but the ridge is still technically there... compressed to all hell and gone, but still there.  that compression can be seen by merely counting the isopleths and noting also that the balanced geostrophic velocities might be hauling azz over the Gulf, lower MV over to the SE/FL regions.  i've referred to this as the "Miami rule" in the past.  just by trial and error ... it seems the wind over MIA is usually at or less than 35 kts at 500 mb, and the heights not much higher than 582 dm, ...or, any S/W riding into the SE will experience damping of strength --> lowering "storm" by product...so forth.

the gist of it is, when the +PNAP looks all pornographic, beware the blue-balls of hidden shear.  the probem is, i have difficulty describing the problem without using scaring phrases like "differentiating DPVA"...   the very simplest explanation is that when the wind is already moving at a fast velocity, the wind max of any short waves coming along get absorbed.  that's shear...  

i don't know why i'm going down that road... just to say, i'm a bit nervous for the winter when/if that the southeast ridge keeps popping back up at least excuse imaginable in these mid and extended charts...  we could have a -EPO and end up with a compressed headache. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - meant the same thing... 

yeah, that's really the sort of subtle them there ...which is to accelerate the wave timing.  seems the Euro and GFS operationals even threaten to roll it all out and get us back to an above normal 850 mb temperature layout ...  of course meaningless to go into details, but the look is definitely changed more toward what you're intimating - sure.  I agree..

the other thing, i'm not so sure there is an outright correlation between the SE ridge and the NE Pac.  i've seen many times in the past, where the flow seems to look like a nicely amplified +PNAP ...but the ridge is still technically there... compressed to all hell and gone, but still there.  that compression can be seen by merely counting the isopleths and noting also that the balanced geostrophic velocities might be hauling azz over the Gulf, lower MV over to the SE/FL regions.  i've referred to this as the "Miami rule" in the past.  

the gist of it is, when the +PNAP looks all pornographic, beware the blue-balls of hidden shear.  the probem is, i have difficulty describing the problem without using scaring phrases like "differentiating DPVA"...   the very simplest explanation is that when the wind is already moving at a fast velocity, the wind max of any short waves coming along get absorbed.  that's shear...  

i don't know why i'm going down that road... just to say, i'm a bit nervous for the winter when/if that the southeast ridge keeps popping back up at least excuse imaginable in these mid and extended charts...  we could have a -EPO and end up with a compressed headache. 

Well on the good side, the SE ridge really helped kick off winters in 2007 and 2008. They weren't large events, but a good parade of 4-10" deals depending on where you lived. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well on the good side, the SE ridge really helped kick off winters in 2007 and 2008. They weren't large events, but a good parade of 4-10" deals depending on where you lived. 

yeah ...that's a good point actually... 

i don't mean to skewer winter with SE ridge fears - haha.  

in some more in situ scenarios, a well timed cold wall with western runners can front side an event more fun than just 15 minutes of mangled flakes, pellets, and freezing drizzle ... followed by dewy pantries in 57 degree dp Holiday Season butt bonings...  

it's funny how it's all or nothing with isentropic events; either have the high timed, or find a new hobby -  

[ORH_wxman]

+WPO can be weird for November...we've had some exceptionally cold +WPO Novembers...like 1972, 1980, and 1997. 2008 was also a cold +WPO November, though not as cold as the months I listed above...and it started off as a furnace. It turned frigid the 2nd half of that month.

 

All else equal, the correlation in November is positive to the WPO, but it's pretty weak. It's on the order of about 0.2 (actually slightly less)...so obviously that's why you can get those examples above semi-frequently. One of the features that was pretty common in cold Novembers was North Atlantic ridging.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

+WPO can be weird for November...we've had some exceptionally cold +WPO Novembers...like 1972, 1980, and 1997. 2008 was also a cold +WPO November, though not as cold as the months I listed above...and it started off as a furnace. It turned frigid the 2nd half of that month.

 

All else equal, the correlation in November is positive to the WPO, but it's pretty weak. It's on the order of about 0.2 (actually slightly less)...so obviously that's why you can get those examples above semi-frequently. One of the features that was pretty common in cold Novembers was North Atlantic ridging.

 

it really does just come down to a geometric question with the R-wave counts... there's only so many complete wave lengths we can pack in or subtract - the former makes for correlation break downs, ...the latter, if they are too long that's just not stable and the flow fractures off into pieces... 

either way, you get the off-set correlations sometimes - right.