ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Any resemblance with this to that Oct snow event in maybe 2010 ? It dropped light accumulation in elevations . I think it might have snowed twice within a week. Do I have the year right? 2009...but it doesn't look like those events. Don't think I've seen a front ender event in October before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 this event's been on the charts for a couple/few days really ... NCEP's discussions have been mentioning it as a possible interior elevation snow tho obviously nothing major. 12z ECM hints at shallow latitude cold coastal around the end of D6 ...sort of a s/w transitional pattern. it's banking cold in the lower troposphere within reach for this time of the year - it's not just the Euro either. not much snow pack up there to boot. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: BTV is watching the picnic tables for us...now Oceanst has to use MiseryMist in an AFD: Meanwhile...cold air remains locked east of the greens and across the northeast kingdom with a longer duration of snow...with several inches of wet snow accumulation possible Thursday afternoon/evening...before changing over to rain. Mountain thermal profiles are tricky as progged 850mb temps stay near 0c...but warm nose around 5000 feet associated with southerly jet...supports some freezing rain possible near the summits of the dacks and greens on Thursday Night. It shall be interesting to see what the picnic table on Mansfield receives. Oh, misery mist should be no problem. I'll have to save it for spring though, when it's truly misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 Might be another shot at interior snows late weekend with clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Might be another shot at interior snows late weekend with clipper NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Maybe it's some intra-seasonal variability with tropical forcing, because the longer range on the ensembles sure looks nothing like Nina to me. Looks like Nino with a western GOAK trough..almost Aleutian low with ridging out west and lower height anomalies over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 Ryan bullish for accumulating snow CT hills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Knowing how terrible the GFS is in the lower levels, the 18z GFS soundings for ORH were rather interesting to start out for Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 GFS looks to be breaking the law of cyclogenesis. Thou shall not plow into ORH with stout high to the northeast, when triple point is near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks to be breaking the law of cyclogenesis. Thou shall not plow into ORH with stout high to the northeast, when triple point is near NYC. Ha. ORH-ASH-PWM track. It better run up powderfreak's fanny otherwise it's not getting north of the Canal with a high in that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe it's some intra-seasonal variability with tropical forcing, because the longer range on the ensembles sure looks nothing like Nina to me. Looks like Nino with a western GOAK trough..almost Aleutian low with ridging out west and lower height anomalies over the southeast. Ok, I'm glad you said this...I would never have mentioned I thought it was Nino like cause I'm just an untrained weenie...so I'm glad somebody smart said it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ha. ORH-ASH-PWM track. It better run up powderfreak's fanny otherwise it's not getting north of the Canal with a high in that spot. I think we need a set of 10 commandments for winter. Honestly. True and tried things too live by when it comes to winter forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think we need a set of 10 commandments for winter. Honestly. True and tried things too live by when it comes to winter forecasting. Will already covered the thou shall not forecast 12" of snow in a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Will already covered the thou shall not forecast 12" of snow in a SWFE. Yeah that triggered my post. I want to do something like this for my group at work. I already did something like this for the IFR event at Boston when models sucked by 10 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that triggered my post. I want to do something like this for my group at work. I already did something like this for the IFR event at Boston when models sucked by 10 hrs. We've had some similar emails at the office recently about the first widespread frost/freeze and temp forecasting, and then another for the Matthew moisture rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Will and Ekster's "the precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I never found out the Schwartz Synoptic Seven... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Will and Ekster's "the precip comes in sooner, but so does the sleet" Sleet in the mirror is closer than it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Gotta throw something in about torched 2m temps with relatively cold H95s and heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 9 hours ago, dendrite said: 12z GFS is pretty interesting for NNE. -5C H85s with precip in a SWFE setup with a redeveloping low south of my lat. That usually spells warning snow, but it's late Oct. I could envision a really cold start Thu with Ci/As streaming in early and the cold overperforming in the low levels. H92/H95 is pretty cold. Of course we're a few days away and things will change to at least some degree. Lets get this to track under SNE shall we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: Gotta throw something in about torched 2m temps with relatively cold H95s and heavy precip. Thou shalt not not ever use the GFS 2m temps in winter wx. Honor thy arctic high in Quebec. Thou shalt not ignore the mid-levels in favour of being a QPF Queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lets get this to track under SNE shall we With that high position, I think it's a pretty good chance the sfc does...the mid-level center has been trying to trend south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think we need a set of 10 commandments for winter. Honestly. True and tried things too live by when it comes to winter forecasting. Closed sub 520 ULLs passing just under or over you enjoy the snow it's the only snow you got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Can these 10 commandments of weather please include "thou shalt not expect "backlash snow" in SNE from any winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: With that high position, I think it's a pretty good chance the sfc does...the mid-level center has been trying to trend south too. Just really started looking at this one, That is a 1032mb+ high north of Maine so there is a pretty good chance, Wish we had a more stout cold air mass though but its only Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just really started looking at this one, That is a 1032mb+ high north of Maine so there is a pretty good chance, Wish we had a more stout cold air mass though but its only Oct Yeah we'd already be locking in 4-8 if it was closer to Thanksgiving in this setup. It's a bit early for this. As I mentioned earlier today, it's nice to at least have snowpack established in Canada and the border regions of Maine/NH to "deepen" that cold wedge from these highs....but we don't have that yet in October. Still, this is a pretty darn cold high for this time of year, so we'll see if it can produce some fun for at least the CNE-northward region....if not interior SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I don't expect it here this early....but will be rooting for a quick start to the ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we'd already be locking in 4-8 if it was closer to Thanksgiving in this setup. It's a bit early for this. As I mentioned earlier today, it's nice to at least have snowpack established in Canada and the border regions of Maine/NH to "deepen" that cold wedge from these highs....but we don't have that yet in October. Still, this is a pretty darn cold high for this time of year, so we'll see if it can produce some fun for at least the CNE-northward region....if not interior SNE too. That is so true about the pre thanksgiving air mass, At least it something to keep an eye on and see if some can sneak out another early event, Hunting starts this Saturday here and i hunt in the foothill region so i do have an interest in this, Sure beats the boring dry hot weather we have had over the last few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Started a thread,feeling it for the Berks Greens Whites. Nice being able to look at the new Euro today. Both runs are really bullish for the Wildcat to Sugar loaf corridor on redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Started a thread,feeling it for the Berks Greens Whites. Nice being able to look at the new Euro today. Both runs are really bullish for the Wildcat to Sugar loaf corridor on redevelopment Nice. Hope they crush... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.