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October Disco

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. Is that what Twitter is ablaze about?

We should ban Twitter posts on here. I wonder how much better the discussion would be. 

 

Anyways, yeah the little break in cool weather has always been shown around first week of Nov but the ensembles have shown hints of cooling back down toward the very end of that period...and torch is definitely a strong word. It could easily be normal too. Look what happened to the end of October. That was warm originally but we got stuck under the Quebec PV lobe rotating the cold air down. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted
20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We should ban Twitter posts on here. I wonder how much better the discussion would be. 

 

Anyways, yeah the little break in cool weather has always been shown around first week of Nov but the ensembles have shown hints of cooling back down toward the very end of that period...and torch is definitely a strong word. It could easily be normal too. Look what happened to the end of October. That was warm originally but we got stuck under the Quebec PV lobe rotating the cold air down. 

You just hate change. Society and technology have changed over the years since the boards started. You like to keep things the same .. an example would be your Darth Vader picture. You've had that since Eastern started. That's fine and your choice , but as other aspects of our society provide more information, it's ok to let people embrace change and bring on new ways of posting, new technology, new social media that continues to evolve.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You just hate change. Society and technology have changed over the years since the boards started. You like to keep things the same .. an example would be your Darth Vader picture. You've had that since Eastern started. That's fine and your choice , but as other aspects of our society provide more information, it's ok to let people embrace change and bring on new ways of posting, new technology, new social media that continues to evolve.

No if I hated change I would have never supported changing to subforums on here years ago. I also probably would not have gotten married and had a kid. 

I actually just hate crappy science and the "hot take" discussion that Twitter promotes. That might be cool in sports or news but it usually leads to misinterpretation in a complex science like meteorology. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I've got my eye on it...

BTV is watching the picnic tables for us...now Oceanst has to use MiseryMist in an AFD:

Meanwhile...cold air remains locked east of the greens and across the northeast kingdom with a longer duration of snow...with several inches of wet snow accumulation possible Thursday afternoon/evening...before changing over to rain. Mountain thermal profiles are tricky as progged 850mb temps stay near 0c...but warm nose around 5000 feet associated with southerly jet...supports some freezing rain possible near the summits of the dacks and greens on Thursday Night. It shall be interesting to see what the picnic table on Mansfield receives.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No if I hated change I would have never supported changing to subforums on here years ago. I also probably would not have gotten married and had a kid. 

I actually just hate crappy science and the "hot take" discussion that Twitter promotes. That might be cool in sports or news but it usually leads to misinterpretation in a complex science like meteorology. 

Checkmate.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No if I hated change I would have never supported changing to subforums on here years ago. I also probably would not have gotten married and had a kid. 

I actually just hate crappy science and the "hot take" discussion that Twitter promotes. That might be cool in sports or news but it usually leads to misinterpretation in a complex science like meteorology. 

I agree.  New doesn't always mean better and all technology solutions does not fit all situations.  I work in IT and there is a time and place for the latest and greatest but Twitter is not a one size fits all solution as you say.  A forum is a much better outlet for something as complex as weather.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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i liked it better back in the days of eastern... 

folks seemed to 'respect' the process more - for lack of better word.  content was just better thought out in general. a lot of times, i read a thread starting post now and it seems like the 'intellectual' aspect isn't there. sometimes seemingly childish in thinking.  it's sort of a free-for-all in that regard.  

but, this forum sort of emerged out of eastern's social media source, to became a hosting/platform for web-ads, in addition to weather in there somewhere. typically, when marking and mass production meet with science ?  heh - as is typically the case in any western cultural economic/enterprise, one side of that suffers.   

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i liked it better back in the days of eastern... 

folks seemed to 'respect' the process more - for lack of better word.  content was just better thought out in general. a lot of times, i read a thread starting post now and it seems like the 'intellectual' aspect isn't there. sometimes seemingly childish in thinking.  it's sort of a free-for-all in that regard.    

There definitely was more of that.  Even I posted a lot fewer times or at least waited till having more substantial content.

There was a time a lot would ask the Mets their opinion on a topic but now everyone is an expert on everything haha, or would rather bait the mets into saying what they want to hear.

Social media and the internet has changed too though in the past decade...from lower-frequency, well thought out posts to more stream of conciousness blabbering.  

We also didn't post from phones, so you would have like a couple hour period you were actually even able to post sitting at a computer.  Life moved slower.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i liked it better back in the days of eastern... 

folks seemed to 'respect' the process more - for lack of better word.  content was just better thought out in general. a lot of times, i read a thread starting post now and it seems like the 'intellectual' aspect isn't there. sometimes seemingly childish in thinking.  it's sort of a free-for-all in that regard.  

but, this forum sort of emerged out of eastern's social media source, to became a hosting/platform for web-ads, in addition to weather in there somewhere. typically, when marking and mass production meet with science ?  heh - as is typically the case in any western cultural economic/enterprise, one side of that suffers.   

I think it's an internet-wide problem...not just here. We're in the tl;dr times. Too many people don't have the attention span to read two lines...nevermind 2 paragraphs.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

12z GFS is pretty interesting for NNE. -5C H85s with precip in a SWFE setup with a redeveloping low south of my lat. That usually spells warning snow, but it's late Oct. I could envision a really cold start Thu with Ci/As streaming in early and the cold overperforming in the low levels. H92/H95 is pretty cold. Of course we're a few days away and things will change to at least some degree.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z GFS is pretty interesting for NNE. -5C H85s with precip in a SWFE setup with a redeveloping low south of my lat. That usually spells warning snow, but it's late Oct. I could envision a really cold start Thu with Ci/As streaming in early and the cold overperforming in the low levels. H92/H95 is pretty cold. Of course we're a few days away and things will change to at least some degree.

We'll see if it is true this time, but if we shake the cobwebs off our model performances I recall that it is fairly common for a setup like this to look better as we get closer(at least up to about 48-60h out)...cold airmass where the high is kind of stubborn to retreat initially. 

 

Only thing I hate about it is that in October we have no surface/lower atmosphere feedback via deep snow cover from New England to Quebec. It isn't the driving factor but it defenitely helps to deepen that wedge of cold. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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35 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think it's an internet-wide problem...not just here. We're in the tl;dr times. Too many people don't have the attention span to read two lines...nevermind 2 paragraphs.

absolutely ... internet et al is a dumbing factor too, and that's not helping. 

still, the spin off of American from Eastern and more importantly the direction it's taken since didn't help, either.  they are obviously making money ...someone is, somehow - we are not dodging ad spaces for nothing.  whether it is an individual or a cadre therein, that money making model requires user ship... that's going to lower the bar on screening.  it's going to lower the bar on moderation.  it's going to get more and more users at least excuse imaginable. i'm not inclined to believe that America's comparative erosion of intellect and banter antic theme is purely a function of internet in general - no way.  i'm detecting a wanton tendency to defend that model, too - but, i don't care...  defend away. all i'm saying is that i liked Eastern better back in the day...  

i was never sure why people came over to American anyway - eastern wasn't technically off-line.  i could still log in over there up until a couple hears ago ... i think i even saw post dates on there from 2013, too.   haven't tried recently tho - it may at least finally be dust.

 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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i have been toying with starting a thread ... replete with substantive analysis .. .re the first 10 days of November. 

am aware others have chimed in re some sort of warm up in there, but... i see any warmth as noise and more likely fleeting compared to a pretty potent +PNA/-NAO multi-day/mult-guidance and ensemble member supported teleconnector convergence.  

...basically, two disparate statisical packages signaling cold and storminess potential E of 100 W.  ...held back.  don't like transition season antics that are fiddling around with continuity everywhere. 

if one were to use the former as correction schemes ... that vector points toward dimming warmth and augmenting cooler transports.  missing the -EPO.  tsk tsk.  not liking that...  the PNA bulge in both agencies is impinging on the EPO though... the positive EPO that's been modeled is sort of coming down, and it's pretty clear the PNA is causing that to happen as those two fields' base-line is negative correlation.  point being, if the PNA gets strong enough, the flow implication may tip NW in the NW Territories anyway so what's the difference. 

bottom line, seems a decent period of negative anomalies, magnitude notwithstanding, should set up shop E of 100 and SW of the Maritime lat/lons in the first half of Novie... can't say much for a specific events but the signal's there -

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We should ban Twitter posts on here. I wonder how much better the discussion would be. 

 

Anyways, yeah the little break in cool weather has always been shown around first week of Nov but the ensembles have shown hints of cooling back down toward the very end of that period...and torch is definitely a strong word. It could easily be normal too. Look what happened to the end of October. That was warm originally but we got stuck under the Quebec PV lobe rotating the cold air down. 

Looks blocky also so perhaps that can mute any real torch like weather.

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