Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 for anyone that cares to delve a bit deeper ... here is a quick and dirty matrix of correlations that is actually pretty comprehensive in terms of comparing all them, air and sea. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/table/ ...it's by month. these correlations are not the same at all times... if you study them month to month, you will see that correlations can get stronger or weaker as winter ages.. (i personally find that interesting). also, one thing that may leap out at you is that there are no 1::1 correlations between different teleconnector fields - only to themselves but that's obvious. what that means in lay-terms is that -NAO don't always mean cold, and +EPOs don't always mean warmth ...etc. it just means you will tend to measure those biases given respective states. for more advanced applications - there are a ton of emergent properties.. which they intimate by stating in their explanation that things may break down differently when taken in quadrature - just means non-standard chunks/regions.. you can secondarily, tertiary find your own 'tendencies' based upon combinations of these fields - but that takes some deep digging and comparative analysis, as is much deeper than these linear relationships of the correlation-table. lastly, this doesn't tell you 'what' exactly the sensible weather correlation is for them .. but, most know what +PNA and -NAO and +EPO mean and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 7 years ago today I picked up 3-4" of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 7 years ago today I picked up 3-4" of slop That was actually 7 years ago yesterday...10/18/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 That was a Patriot's pummeler in more ways than one, that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Monday night into Tuesday with a secondary cold push of air with -7 850's uniformely mixed across all of New England with wind gusts in the 30's looks like a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: That was actually 7 years ago yesterday...10/18/09 Really? The photo stamp on our old camera must have been messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 15 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Really? The photo stamp on our old camera must have been messed up Are the pictures possibly from the next day? I picked up 1" on that one and have on my record that it rained until around 1PM and the snow turned moderate to heavy and ended around 6PM. Not knowing if the pictures are of the snow falling or on the ground, I'm wondering if you took them in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Looks like most guidance agrees on the reinforcing shot of colder air early to mid next week. Probably colder than the initial burst behind the storm. Beyond that, there's a lot of jumbled mess. Some guidance looks cooler again for early November. WPO trough more displaced south which was not uncommon in colder Novembers. All that can change a lot though at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like most guidance agrees on the reinforcing shot of colder air early to mid next week. Probably colder than the initial burst behind the storm. Beyond that, there's a lot of jumbled mess. Some guidance looks cooler again for early November. WPO trough more displaced south which was not uncommon in colder Novembers. All that can change a lot though at this point. Tuesday through Friday look miserable for October, raw windy cold 40's over 30's with strong winds especially Tuesday. Will need to finally turn the heat on it apears by Tuesday night. Ugly look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Tuesday through Friday look miserable for October, raw windy cold 40's over 30's with strong winds especially Tuesday. Will need to finally turn the heat on it apears by Tuesday night. Ugly look Ugly? That's fall man. How it should be and I for one can't wait. In fact, I'd bet many of us in SNE see first flakes middle of bextceeek whether it's lake moisture or instability stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ugly? That's fall man. How it should be and I for one can't wait. In fact, I'd bet many of us in SNE see first flakes middle of bextceeek whether it's lake moisture or instability stuff Suddenly, dry begets wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 i can recall back in the day, one of the most troubling forecast parameters was always wind. sometimes, ...all parameters would be lined up for a real wild wire whistler wind event, ...timbre crackles, moments in the dark... breezy. other times, wind advisory for the elevations ended up being warning level gusts just about everywhere. most of the time the forecast seemed to at least know the wind was about to blow - it was just a matter of nailing down the magnitude. I wonder where verification on that specific aspect stands now? ... because just on the surface of those recent Euro runs (mind you .. < than the 4.5 day wheelhouse reputation of that particular model) looks like a f'n P-wave off a bomb blast of a isallobaric pulse man. holy smokes... Color season ...OVER, in t-minus 84 hours! to say nothing of the idea that this could be enhanced further should that deal over the outer Bahamas get involved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 yeah Will... the mean there would argue for some sort ...tiny styrofoam packing pellets bouncin' around on car tops around D4.5.. might even be a bit of hybrid windex event there with that 2nd push of 534 dm thickness ... keep in mind folks, the sun is damn dim at this distance from the autumn equinox and every day ...cooler, dimmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah Will... the mean there would argue for some sort ...tiny styrofoam packing pellets bouncin' around on car tops around D4.5.. might even be a bit of hybrid windex event there with that 2nd push of 534 dm thickness ... keep in mind folks, the sun is damn dim at this distance from the autumn equinox and every day ...cooler, dimmer. Yeah we're down to about a mid-Feb sun angle next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we're down to about a mid-Feb sun angle next week. Another week, graupel will not melt on car tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ugly? That's fall man. How it should be and I for one can't wait. In fact, I'd bet many of us in SNE see first flakes middle of bextceeek whether it's lake moisture or instability stuff I know...I'll take that. Yesterday was nice, but the previous couple of days with clouds and humidity were nasty. I'm eager for the seasonal change train to resume its journey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ugly? That's fall man. How it should be and I for one can't wait. In fact, I'd bet many of us in SNE see first flakes middle of bextceeek whether it's lake moisture or instability stuff meh Its October not Nov why rush it, wasted cold is wasted cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah Will... the mean there would argue for some sort ...tiny styrofoam packing pellets bouncin' around on car tops around D4.5.. might even be a bit of hybrid windex event there with that 2nd push of 534 dm thickness ... keep in mind folks, the sun is damn dim at this distance from the autumn equinox and every day ...cooler, dimmer. 100% agree on the possible Windex potential especially Berks to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 GFS and Euro both flipped cold days 8-10 with some double digit - 850s on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 That subtropical system has really gotten its act together today. Becoming a huge circulation. Wonder if it becomes deeper than models have suggested? Would a stronger system throw more moisture NW into New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 There will be an interesting combination of mid-latitude and tropical disturbances. The low (99L) near the Bahamas will track NE and send a highly moist air mass towards Cape Cod, while the mid-latitude low will track into New England. The low (99L) will probably not even be named, but the moist air will help produce extra rain (and possibly snow) in New England and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I know it's probably weenie for me to say, but the euro ensemble and 6z gfs argue for some snow or mixed precip to start about a week from today over the interior north of pike. Only reason why I mention this is because the setup is not really a clown solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I know it's probably weenie for me to say, but the euro ensemble and 6z gfs argue for some snow or mixed precip to start about a week from today over the interior north of pike. Only reason why I mention this is because the setup is not really a clown solution. Almost looks like a clipper...def prob best chance NNE mountains. Pretty cold finish for most of the final 10 days of October. A lot of reinforcing lower heights circle around from Quebec...even while it torches out in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 here's something i haven't seen in ...a number of years i think, and that's machine guidance some 12 under climo at D5 ... wow... 32 49| 28 46| KBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: here's something i haven't seen in ...a number of years i think, and that's machine guidance some 12 under climo at D5 ... wow... 32 49| 28 46| KBED What's that? Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s in October? We had that last year. Oct 18-19th. But I agree we've had a pretty good string of very warm Octobers in the past 4 or 5 years....after we had been getting some pretty cold ones before that...notably 2009 was a really cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: What's that? Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s in October? We had that last year. Oct 18-19th. modeled - ... verification's fine. what i'm getting at is that at D5 and 6, that's dimmed to climatology so the 'signal' is possibly being obscured by the 'lie' of machine spin - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: modeled - ... verification's fine. what i'm getting at is that at D5 and 6, that's dimmed to climatology so the 'signal' is possibly being obscured by the 'lie' of machine spin - heh Oh right...yeah it's a cold airmass on most guidance. I'd suspect that we would def have one of those destructive sunshine days where the high terrain struggles to hit 40F and even 45-48F seems like a win for the coastal plain. Again, assuming that lobe sort of swings down over us and gives us that added instability profile. Otherwise, it might just be low 50s on the CP and 46F for ORH which is crisp, but nothing all that notable for late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 the return of the clipper/miller B sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Ensembles look sort of Nino-like at the end of their period. It's not necessarily cold, but lower height anomalies over the SE with +PNA look and maybe -AO suggest possible storminess. I wouldn't rule out elevation wintry weather with that look. At least as modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ensembles look sort of Nino-like at the end of their period. It's not necessarily cold, but lower height anomalies over the SE with +PNA look and maybe -AO suggest possible storminess. I wouldn't rule out elevation wintry weather with that look. At least as modeled now. Split PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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