CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 I think yesterday was a good reminder of how the overall synoptics can sign a QPF bust. We had favorable dynamics....very strong RRQ of jet, good frontogenesis etc. good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Noone whether met or weenie caught it because it's rain and folks generally could care less about rain , but if this had been winter there would have been weenies and met weenies all over this screaming a bust was coming . Wasn't sniffed out at all yesterday other than Ginx posting the Euro was wet for SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 On 10/8/2016 at 10:54 AM, Ginx snewx said: Surprise rain tomorrow? Some wind? ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 The ? Marks were asking if it was possible. Ambiguous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 We've flirted with autumn appeals over the last ten days or so... Crispy morning here and there with some light frosts. But those ensuing afternoons mild-out more than this one will; this is the first bona fide autumn day as far as the type of cool I normally associate to autumn. It's an opine, but this is the first grade-A success day heading into the transition season for me. It's a bit of an anomaly, synoptically too.. .The 500 mb thickness' are running in the low 550's, which means keeping temperatures in the 40's, under full unabated sunshine is a bit of a lower-level cold temperature anomaly relative to those particular heights. We should edge into the low 50s, but even that is an under-achievement. I find that interesting ... because there has been a weird kind of emergent property to temperatures that's been going on since ...the end of last April, really, and this fits. What that is, is that temperatures seem to find the coolest possible realization relative to patterns - regardless of cause, we seem to keep ending up here. We had heat in the summer, some of it was impressive ...most of it was not. The overall tenor for warmth this recent summer was to fall 'somehow' short of what the global and in situ appeal of synoptic layouts/contributors would have supported. Over the years I've come to notice this about the weather. There seems to be a secondary "emergent" property that colors the reality of what we experience in the day to day weather here on Earth, and it does at times part company with indicators - at times, much to the chagrin of professionals' actual forecasts, too. We've all experienced this. Those that have 'weathered' the storms of internet opines over the course of the last decade's social-media boom, probably are familiar with phrases like: "It just can't snow!"; or in coveted times, "It snows for any reason at all.." These are sort of affectation achievements by the atmosphere, if you will... They are "emergent properties" born out of the chaotic realm of cause and effect - fractal characteristic tendencies. The parts that we can observe that integrate the machinery of the atmosphere at any given time (all the teleconnectors, land, air and sea, model 'trends', Solar and extraterrestrial/astronomical .... all of it), seem to at times result colder, hotter, wetter, drier ...etc, despite having seemingly negligible, observable differences. It's as though the exact same machine at times spontaneously ops to spit out Corvettes instead of Camaros. This sort of plumbs the murkier depths of philosophy/science though; it's perfectly logical to ask if it just 'seems' that way because we simply don't know every quantum state of the three-dimension fluid medium of the atmosphere, and how quantum-scale influences from outside (or in) that can effect it, will effect changes in its states out in time. Perhaps if we did, the emergent nature of the beast wouldn't seem so ...emergent, but entirely expected. I like that - In any event, for those that covet the winter season the most, let us hope this tendency doesn't suddenly fail to emerge as we get past Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 as an afterthought ... i wonder it mere chance that the EPO was negative spanning the recent week and now we are being delivered this low level cold anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 11am temps: 26F 4000ft 37F 1500ft (office) 39F 750ft (MVL) Fairly impressive CAA to be 39F in the valley at the ASOS at 11am after all the warmth we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The ? Marks were asking if it was possible. Ambiguous We dent we frost and the Mts start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: We dent we frost and the Mts start Yeah nice rime up here too. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Euro FTL right thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro FTL right thru day 10 wut weeks and weeks of COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: wut weeks and weeks of COC We're wasting the winter month of October. Losing November would mean we lost 2 months with ony 3 to go before Morch. Don't you get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 it's like if you took a 19th century cool snap and added an "Indian Summer", then ...bounced ahead a century with GW on top you end up with this Euro solution. actually though, the SE ridge 're' bulging at least excuse imaginable has actually been gracing the balance of the Global model runs spanning some 4 or 5 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro FTL right thru day 10 wouldn't expect anything else. I'm gonna buy a couple camels and put them out back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 solid freeze warning up. ...you can feel this air mass is, as Will puts it, ready to just hemorrhage heat - i bet car top sparkles start glinting before even midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 So AN temps for the foreseeable future.... wuts new? How much above normal is the question. And, how long is foreseeable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: solid freeze warning up. ...you can feel this air mass is, as Will puts it, ready to just hemorrhage heat - i bet car top sparkles start glinting before even midnight. Already in the 30s here at 7pm. Going to be a solid hard freeze after a cold October day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Should bottom out 37-38 here and ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Is this real cold, or fake cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 DP down to 26 at ORH wind up though if they decouple early AM could freefall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 40 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Is this real cold, or fake cold? What do you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What do you mean Whether it's one of those airmasses where the radiational cooling spots are like 15-20F colder than the hilltops...to which I answer no. This is a pretty chilly airmass. Good CAA today gives that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Down to 39.5. Point and click has me at a low of 33 but I'm going with 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 37 imby this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Down to 36, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should bottom out 37-38 here and ORH 8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: DP down to 26 at ORH wind up though if they decouple early AM could freefall 38.9 was the low here overnight, but up to 40.1 now with a breeze blowing. ORH is 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 38.9 was the low here overnight, but up to 40.1 now with a breeze blowing. ORH is 44 Beat you by 10 degrees. Maybe last 20's of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Brrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 ORH is 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ORH is 39. Bottomed out 38.8 here at 7:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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